Two Major Polls today show Biden actually losing some ground:

[bluewater]

Biden lost support in two major polls this week, the Politico/MorningConsult poll and the Emerson poll.


Emerson has been one of Joe Biden's strongest polls, having showed him consistently in the mid 30's% prior to this week's poll.

Biden went from 34% to 30%
Sanders plummeted from 27% to 15%.
Harris's support increased 8%, from 7% to 15%.
Warren's support increased 1%, from 14% to 15%.

Biden's lead increased to +15 because Sanders, who was in second place, went down more than Biden did.


The Politico/Morning Poll is one of the strongest for Joe Biden, but this week his support continued to decline.

Biden went from 33% to 31%.
Sander's support in second place stayed steady at 19% for both this week and last week.
Support for Harris went up 2%, and support for Warren went up 1%.

Biden's lead decreased -2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html


Disclaimer: This is a very early poll and the polls seem to be in flux. The results of any single poll should not be over emphasized this early.

So, despite any prior posts, these two polls today did NOT show Biden regaining some lost ground.

[SouthernProgressive]

1. Solid lead for Biden.

Continuing to hold front-runner status. People can spin it however they want. Double the support of his closest rivals. That's pretty amazing.

[bluewater]

5. The trend is clear, Biden's support continues to decline

Biden's average support in the major polls was 41.4% on May 10th, as reported by RCP Polls.

Biden's average support in the major polls today has fallen to 27.3%

That's a decline of 14.1% since May 10th.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[SouthernProgressive]

10. Solid lead, no matter how it is spun.

He had yet to launch his campaign on May 10th.

Double the lead of his closest supporter.

Late April, just before the numbers you present, Biden wasn't even close to doubling his support over Sander and was polling below 30%. That's just twenty days before the numbers you are using. If you are going to use the word "trajectory" in reference to polls, watch how you pick and choose the starting dates. It appears to me that you are manipulating polls for personal reasons.

[bluewater]

15. So the more people have seen of Biden, the more his support has fallen?

That seems to be true in general.

But it is very early. I am sure the nomination race will become clearer as primary season progresses.

Thanks for the discussion.

[SouthernProgressive]

20. How is that possible when I gave you his poll numbers from twenty days earlier than yours.

And he is polling higher. Now you are just being deceptive. Not a flattering position you have put yourself in.

[bluewater]

27. Anyone can look at the chart at RCP Polls and check for themselves.

Since his highwater mark of 41.4% on May 10th, Biden has consistently lost support and is now at 27.3%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

facts are stubborn things.

I think that's a clear trend. You claim it is not.

People will make up their own minds when they examine the actual data themselves.

Thanks for the discussion.

[SouthernProgressive]

31. From his low point he is up in support.

Create a trend line from the beginning of the primary poling. Facts are stubborn things.

[Thekaspervote]

37. There are always poll bumps for candidates. This was mr. Biden's poll bump

The fact that he has sustained his lead at this level is more than one could hope for...with any candidate

[busterbrown]

16. Yep... I like Joe to beat Trump.

I love Harris, Warren especially Buttichieg....

But tough joe who connects well with Rust Belt's salt of earth types.. Is a winner!

[Kahuna7]

2. Not for nothing, the OP has a unique way of presenting Biden in a unique light.

[bluewater]

6. Accurately?

The poll results are what the poll results are.

If I have made a mistake here, please point it out and I will correct it.

Thanks.

[BannonsLiver]

45. I feel like I've read it before just recently.

Only that poster who is no longer with us and had a different name.

Hmmmmmm.

[mobeau69]

3. So, despite any prior posts, these two polls today did NOT show Biden regaining some lost ground.

Why a few DU members try to mislead others is beyond me. It's so silly.

[bluewater]

9. Everyone makes mistakes.

I know I do, but I try to apologize for them when that happens.

Posts claiming these two polls showed Biden regaining some lost support are simply wrong.

The polls are what the polls are.

[mobeau69]

11. We all do.

[George II]

26. Okay, let me do it. I apologize that my candidate has doubled his overall lead on the field!

[mobeau69]

29. What makes you think I was referring to you?

I could have been referring to the poster.

A little quick in that defense, I'd say.

[George II]

30. ....

[mobeau69]

32. :-)

[emmaverybo]

13. The old apologize guilt-tripping. Biden should and now supporters should.

[bluewater]

17. I apologize when I make mistakes in the forum.

But that's just my personal approach to trying to be above board in discussion groups.

[emmaverybo]

19. Well, you haven't in this case. NT

[bluewater]

25. Pardon?

[SouthernProgressive]

33. Deception isn't a mistake. It's a tactic.

It's also why one doesn't have to apologize even when being less than honest.

[onetexan]

21. exactly. i don't see other folks calling for Harris to apologize re: the "stupid" comment

i did on one thread.

That said, Joe is still in a double digits lead. Though still early polls, it's a good sign.

[mobeau69]

34. Oh, hair plugs!

[George II]

4. Losing ground? He was ahead by 7% (34-27) before, ahead by 15% now (30-15)....

I'll bet every candidate wishes he/she could "lose ground" like that.

[bluewater]

7. You think every candidate want to lose 4% of their support?

Honestly, I don't.

[George II]

8. I think every candidate would like to DOUBLE his/her lead from one poll to another.

Simple math:

34-27 = 7
30-15 = 15

[bluewater]

12. I think many of the other campaigns are very happy Biden is falling back to the pack.

I know I would be happy if I were them.

But, the Sanders Campaign is probably unhappy with the Emerson Poll, without a doubt.

[onetexan]

23. that's what i don't get. Joe's been leading by double digits. Of course it's early and numbers go up

& down. But Joe has been the consistent front runner.

[bluewater]

42. I agree that Joe has been the consistent front runner.

It is also true that the pack is catching up to him.

That doesn't mean they will catch him, but it is enheartening the pursuit.

[emulatorloo]

14. Warren and Biden are on my shortlist. When are you going to start moving us to Warren

with a positive post about her?

“Unscrewing” positive polls about Biden so that they are ‘negative’ is not going to do anything positive for Senator Warren.

Shortlist btw in no particular order: Warren Biden Harris Buttigieg Beto.

[emmaverybo]

18. I agree. Spoiler posts won't help put a Dem in the Whitehouse, ultimately. Talking up an

alternate choice who is also competitive with TRUMP is a plus for all.

[bluewater]

24. Presenting the actual data is not "unskewing polls"

The polls are what the polls are.

[emulatorloo]

35. Biden leads the others by a big margin. At the very least you're "spinning"

At any rate, why not tell me why I should support Warren in the primary?

That’s more effective than these non-stop negative posts I’m seeing around here designed to ‘destroy’ Biden. Negative campaigning never sways me.

[bluewater]

36. Thanks for the discussion.

Let' agree to disagree.

I just presented poll results that came out today, I don't think it's fair to call that "spinning". I also don't think it's fair at all to call reporting poll results "being negative."

If I have made an error in the OP, please point it out to me. I will gladly correct any mistakes.

If you do want to see some of the many pro-Warren and pro-Harris posts, I like both of them, you can look in my journal before that rolls over.

Again, thanks for the discussion.

[emulatorloo]

39. Thanks for mentioning your journal! Will enjoy reading it.

[bluewater]

40. And just an fyi

Please check it going forward too, I have gained a new perspective about posting here on DU.

[ucrdem]

22. Reports of Biden's demise are greatly exaggerated.

But we'll be hearing them until November 2020.

[Celerity]

44. if Joe has a massive lead a couple weeks after Super Tuesday it is time to start moving on to the GE

If Bernie is crushed up to that point and continues on (with no realistic path to the nomination) he is obviously (IF that scenario happens) is going to do nothing but cause big trouble.

I have no worries on any other candidate dragging it out if they have no path to victory.

[highplainsdem]

28. The ground Biden supposedly lost is actually within the margin of error. Oh, and Emerson had

Sanders leading Biden 29-24 back in April, which is one of the reasons I don't consider their poll one of the more reliable around.

[Thekaspervote]

38. Okay.. if someone wants to chew on this ...please do.. thx

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Indykatie]

41. Please Stop It. Shifts Within a Poll's MOE Should Not Be Described as Biden Losing Ground.

Bernie's drop from 27% to 15% is the big news in the Emerson poll. A drop of 12 points is yuge if it's correct.

[Politicub]

43. He's holding pretty steady for the most part.

I think all of the candidates will learn from each other as they go along. Biden will dig into why Harris is gaining, why Warren is basically flat, etc., and use that info to try and reach the critical mass of voters he needs to win the primary.

[BootinUp]

46. Not my interpretation, but

If it makes you happy.