Trump trails Biden, other 2020 Democrats in new poll

[highplainsdem]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/452974-trump-trails-biden-other-2020-democrats-in-new-poll

President Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden and several other Democratic White House hopefuls, according to a poll released early Sunday.

Biden, the Democratic front-runner, leads Trump by 9 points among registered voters, 51 to 42 percent, in a hypothetical matchup in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Biden leads Trump among African-American voters, women, suburban voters and independents, pollsters found, while Trump saw support from men, white voters, and white voters without college degrees.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has a 7-point lead over the president, 50 to 43 percent, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren, (D-Mass.) is ahead of Trump by 5 points, 48 to 43 percent, in the survey.

Sen. Kamala Harris, (D-Calif.) has a 1-point advantage, 45 to 44 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points

-snip-

[Eyeball_Kid]

1. Trumpy is so thoroughly disgusting that...

he'll do all he can to not only tweak the pre-election polling data (if Russian hackers can breach highly secured US data bases, they can breach the secure systems that manage polling data) in his favor, but he'll also do all he can to change the votes in the general election. Trumpy has no scruples. He'll never use a level playing field if he has any power at all to slant it in his favor.

[highplainsdem]

2. I agree. Though he doesn't seem to have any influence over polls so far, and he's done lots of

complaining and lying about the polls.

[qazplm135]

3. So first

This poll tells us all four can beat Trump.

Second, that's it. It's early.

Anyone who thinks this won't be a close race regardless is fooling themselves.

[highplainsdem]

4. Um, no. If the polls can be consideed reliable in showing which candidates can beat Trump, then

they should also be considered reliable when considering the margin the polls show Trump would be beaten by.

And 9 points is better than 1.

I agree that it's early. But so far almost all the polls show Biden doing much better against Trump than the other candidates.

[Skya Rhen]

6. +1,000,000

[Kahuna7]

7. +2,000,000

[qazplm135]

10. Yeah no

Two completely different things.

One is a general thing not prone to variability, and one is a highly specific thing very prone to variability.

Of course you want it to be the same thing because it helps your guy but if the numbers change six months from now so will your time.

[highplainsdem]

11. So you're actually suggesting that "the top Democrats will beat Trump" is NOT prone to variability,

but the question of which could beat Trump by the greatest margin IS "very prone to variability"?

Interesting argument.

[qazplm135]

14. I'm "suggesting"

that any of our top democrats are VIABLE.
They CAN beat Trump. Whether they WILL beat Trump is no guarantee. Who the best to beat Trump isn't known this early in the race, and who would end up with the "biggest" margin can't be known at this point.

It's a pretty rational argument that doesn't depend on preferring one candidate over the others to make.
Unlike yours.

It also takes into account basic fucking statistics. If Bernie is at 7 and Biden is at 9 they are STATISTICALLY TIED.

They are also DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE to each other. So what does that tell a reasonable person?

That right now, those two are roughly equal to "generic democrat." In large part because they have the largest name recognition, and other than political junkies a WHOLE LOT OF PEOPLE are not paying attention right now.

If we used this argument in 2007, we'd have told Obama to sit his ass down since Hillary had a 20+ pt polling lead in some polls at this point. I'm pretty sure she was leading the General Election polling then too.

Now, do you think Clinton would have won in 08? Probably. Would she have won by as much as Obama? Nope.

The polling then showed what the polling now shows...that a Democrat CAN win. What it was absolutely wrong about, was who was the stronger candidate or how much they would win by.

It's pretty simple logic, unless you are invested in an only Joe can win argument.

[Demsrule86]

15. I am a sayng the key to winning is in three states...Michigan, Wi and

PA...and Biden has the best chance in those states. Harris and Warren will not win a General in those states. AnyDemocrat has my vote of course

[qazplm135]

20. you have NO idea who has the best chance in those state NOR

do you have any idea that those two women CANT win a General in those states.

No data, no facts, just plain old opinion.

IOW as worthwhile as 330+ million other opinions.

[Thekaspervote]

5. Agree as well.. it is early and things can change. What I do like is mr. Biden's consistent lead

[evertonfc]

8. Let's look at the facts

I'm encouraged with any reasonable nominee. Although I hope any ticket can be diverse and have an addition of youth. That being said- we will get more votes. Now, we lost PA, MI, WI and AZ by 10k-80k votes in a low turnout election. I think 2020 will be massive turnout on both sides but slight demographic changes and new voters ( turned 18 since last election) can easily hand us those states with a vigorous registration and GOTV. Florida has been close the last 4 cycles and a win here would be a fatal blow to Trump.... Fact is, I don't think Trump will perform any better in 2020. We have too and I'm confident we will. Resources spent on GOTV will be no st well spent.

[treestar]

9. Great though state by state would be better

as we know that is what rules. If the 9% are all in California and New York it doesn't do much good in getting the Evil Orange Dictator out of office.

[highplainsdem]

12. I'd like to see more state polls on candidate-vs-Trump, too.

[Gustafo]

13. Warren beating Trump

That's very good news.

[Demsrule86]

16. Not by that amount in a national poll...

[Gustafo]

19. Biden +9 not si so solid either

There were quite a few polls in which Hillary lead Trump by that margin and more.

[mtnsnake]

17. I think we could run Lady Gaga or Lebron James in 2020 and defeat Trump, no problem.

which is why we have 20 some candidates running and probably another 2 or 3 hundred thinking about it.

[Cha]

22. I disagree.. not just anybody is going

to win the electoral college against trump.

[Scurrilous]

18. K&R

[Cha]

21. Steady On, Joe!

Mahalo, highplains