Why Bernie Sanders thinks he can win California this time

[Uncle Joe]

Sen. Bernie Sanders isn’t conceding California in the Democratic presidential primary race to home state Sen. Kamala Harris. Far from it. Top Sanders campaign officials say he’s planning to have field offices and run commercials across the nation’s most populous state.

“We’re going to have a robust campaign in California.” said Ben Tulchin, Sanders’ San Francisco-based pollster, adding that “Bernie is extremely well-positioned” in California. “It will be a well-funded media and field campaign.”

(snip)

Now, Sanders is topping most polls among the “announced candidates” — as in, not including former Vice President Joe Biden or former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Roughly half his support comes from Latinos and African Americans, some surveys suggest. Sanders’ favorability rating among Latino voters is 59 percent, according to a recent poll — higher than the rest of the announced field.

(snip)

Here’s one sign that the Sanders campaign is far ahead of where it was the last time he ran for president. Then, pollster Tulchin wasn’t hired until October 2015, just four months before the Iowa caucuses. Now, we’re nearly a year away from the first voting, and Tulchin is already on the payroll.


https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Why-Bernie-Sanders-thinks-he-can-win-California-13682842.php

[sacto95834]

1. While the California Media Market...

is very expensive. Any serious candidate would be foolish not to have something in place in California. I understand why California moved up their primaries, but I still wish it was later in the season when the array of candidates thins out. Going late in the season was the "gold at the end of the rainbow" - assuming you could make it there.

I still think Kamala Harris will do very well in the California primary. It's been ages since California had a son/daughter in the race, so Kamala makes it more exciting.

Can you win the primary w/out California - yes, but you got to place well (close 2 or 3) and do well elsewhere. But pretty hard to not place well here and still win in today's political world. We have just too many delegates at stake.

[brush]

2. Wishful thinking. It will be Kamala by a mile;

[OhZone]

3. Yup - I admire his positivism but -

I'm not into delusional politicians.

The GOP cornered that category.

[Garrett78]

10. I think that depends on how well Harris does in the first 4 contests.

If she were to, say, win 3 of the first 4 contests, I think she'd be on her way to a huge win in California and the nomination.

If she merely has a decent showing in the first 3 but wins South Carolina, California might be somewhat close.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

4. This Californian doesn't give him a snowball's chance in hell.

People are turned off in a yuge way.

[ZeroSomeBrains]

5. It's going to take a lot of money to compete in California

I expect a tough fight with Senator Harris here. The antipathy towards Bernie is very prevalent here at DU but not so much from Democratic primary voters as a whole.

[jaceaf]

7. i don't think so

He said the same thing last time and Hillary cleaned his clock with less candidates.

Kamala will take it.

[David__77]

6. I find it notable that the CA Democrats choose to have an open primary.

We shall see how the dynamics play out!

[madville]

8. I see Harris, Biden, and Bernie splitting California pretty evenly

A 25-30% split between the three is completely plausible, and they all walk away from CA with a decent chunk of delegates.

[Gothmog]

9. I see the split being between Harris, Beto and Biden

I see sanders being a distant fourth place finisher

[George II]

11. Wishful thinking.

I wonder when he's going to release his tax returns?

[NurseJackie]

12. The candidates who *have* released their full tax returns show INTEGRITY and HONESTY...

... and I'll just leave it at that.

[George II]

13. Elizabeth Warren released ten years back in August, five months prior to announcing.

[Gothmog]

14. Electability is my main criterion

I do not believe that sanders can beat trump

[Gothmog]

15. Lets see what happens after some real vetting

No one took sanders seriously and so he was not vetted. Vetting is important https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/28/why-bernie-sanders-has-an-uphill-climb-ahead/?utm_term=.1b4f90c2a717

Finally, what happens when the oppo dump on Sanders comes? We have no idea, because it never happened in 2016. Clinton was so terrified of alienating his supporters and seeing them vote for Jill Stein in the general election (or not vote at all) that she tiptoed around him for pretty much the entirety of the primary campaign. That doesn’t mean that he’ll be destroyed when stories about the more colorful aspects of his history start cropping up, but there’s just no way to know.

Which is what we could say about the Sanders candidacy as a whole: There’s no way to know how it’s going to go. But he’s got his work cut out for him.

See also https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/19/politics/bernie-sanders-2020-campaign-donald-trump/index.html?utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2019-02-20T14%3A52%3A07&utm_term=image&utm_medium=social%C2%A0

2. How will he withstand more scrutiny and more attacks?
One of the secrets to Sanders' success in 2016 was that no one -- most especially Clinton -- thought he had any chance of going anywhere in the race. Clinton largely ignored him for the better part of 2015, allowing some problematic parts of Sanders' record for Democrats -- most notably his voting record on guns -- to go unnoticed. (When the race began to tighten, Clinton gently prodded Sanders on guns and health care.) Sanders, too, largely flew under the radar of investigative reporters for major news outlets who were busy looking into Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and others seen as more viable candidates. (That reality clearly benefited Donald Trump in the early days of the campaign, as well.)

Sanders will get no pass -- from either the media or his fellow candidates -- this time around. He is among the frontrunners -- and will be treated as such. His wife's time as president of Burlington College could well come up. And his opponents will do a deep dive into his nearly 30 years of votes as a member of the House and Senate. This is all very normal stuff in a campaign. But not for Sanders.