Bernie and California...

[RobertDevereaux]

%%%%
“A lot has changed in Sanders’ world since his 2016 presidential campaign, when he lost the California primary — and the Democratic nomination — to Hillary Clinton. The Vermont independent wasn’t well known then outside his home territory, so his campaign was largely focused on introducing him to voters, particularly in Latino and African American communities.

“Now, Sanders is topping most polls among the “announced candidates” — as in, not including former Vice President Joe Biden or former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Roughly half his support comes from Latinos and African Americans, some surveys suggest. Sanders’ favorability rating among Latino voters is 59 percent, according to a recent poll — higher than the rest of the announced field.”
%%%%

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Why-Bernie-Sanders-thinks-he-can-win-California-13682842.php?fbclid=IwAR1hvKdGSh68CFWeclnNgOR7UO8titBL9-H3-Yf-zFpsj7DkrMe1WWsQ9ZA

[vsrazdem]

1. Flaming to begin shortly.

[NastyRiffraff]

109. No flaming

Just eye-rolling

Carry on.

[Power 2 the People]

129. +1000

[roody]

2. I'll be knocking on doors in CA for Bernie.

[California_Republic]

6. I hope to catch one of his rallies

[madville]

3. Odd context how they mentioned O'Rourke

The way it is worded they make it sound like Beto is ahead of Bernie like Biden is in most polls. Anyone else read it that way?

Harris, Biden and Bernie should all get a respectable amount of delegates out of the California primary, probably an almost even 3-way split.

[forklift]

14. Beto is Bernie's kryptonite

Beto will vacuum the millennials who would rather have a charismatic uncle than a grumpy grandpa who refuses to release his tax returns.

[CentralMass]

27. Time will tell how well Bernardo will do. Btw, Robert Francis O'Rourke is not Hispanic.

[forklift]

31. oh geez

Don't get your hopes up .... it may cause anger and depression when faced with a loss.

Be prepared to vote for a Democrat as the eventual nominee. It will not be Bernie.

[CentralMass]

36. My feet are firmly on the ground. I voted for John Kerry in 2004, Hillary in 2008 and Bernie in

the 2016 primary, then Hillary. Dissapointment is nothing new.

[George II]

75. Who said Robert Francis O'Rourke was Hispanic? Why even bring that up here?

[Cha]

113. Who ever said Beto was Hispanic?

[roody]

41. Bernie has the consistent record of supporting the people.

[forklift]

42. The record only shows

naming two post offices in Vermont.

Every other Senator running for POTUS has more bills introduced and more bills passed per year of serving in the congress.

Bernie's record is just rhetoric ... contained in his one stump speech designed to get a bunch of old, grumpy, disgruntled and angry men get all riled up.

[ehrnst]

55. Here are some more statistics on the legislative achievements of Dem Senators running for POTUS

[ehrnst]

68. The number of years one has served as a Senator is factored in the comparative metrics I shared.

Perhaps you missed the number of bills introduced? It's in the top graphic.

So serving fewer than two terms wouldn't be held against someone serving more in that sort of analysis. In HRC's brief career in the Senate, her record was more productive than many who served in that time with her. I think it's one of the reasons that so many of her progressive Senate peers were supportive of her POTUS nomination.

Of course CHIP wouldn't be included in HRC's Senate career, as her invaluable involvement getting it into being was as FLOTUS, however, I think we can all agree that it's one of the most substantial pieces of legislation to actually deliver affordable health care to those who need it. She definitely earned kudos for that.

Those of us who value health care reform certainly consider it to be one of the highest quality pieces of legislation to come out of the Senate. Along with the ACA, of course.

You're welcome for the data.

[George II]

89. Some simple math:

Success Rate:

Sanders 1.8%
Gillibrand 7.4%
Klobuchar 9.1%
Harris 5.6%
Booker 5.0%
Warren 6.4%

Each almost 3X or more (Klobuchar 5X!)

Bills Passed/Year:

Sanders .25
Gillibrand 2.30
Klobuchar 2.75
Harris 1.50
Booker 1.00
Warren 1.17

Each 4X or more (Klobuchar 11X the annual rate!)

As for the "Amendment King", one can't get amendments passed unless someone else did the ground work of getting a bill written first and then passed.

[George II]

77. Can you give specifics of that consistent record? TIA.

[roody]

117. Supporting single payer health insurance since 1993.

Or earllier.

[George II]

123. Well if that's the defining issue, my first choice is John Dingell Sr. who started supporting...

....universal health care in 1943, followed by John Dingell Jr. who continued to introduce it, followed by Debbie Dingell (Jr.'s wife) who continues to introduce it to this day.

[forklift]

45. When is Mr. Authentic going to release his authentic tax returns?

Every day that goes by makes them less and less credible.

It is almost like he is trying to make whole new benign returns and then release them to fool the American people.

I hope Bernie has more sense than that and would release his REAL returns and face the music

[ehrnst]

48. You've talked to/have heard from a lot of "regular voters?"

In what context?

[ehrnst]

51. In the online forums you frequent, that is the opinion.

That's the context I'm talking about.

Thank you for clarifying what you consider to be the "broader electorate outside of Democratic Underground" of "regular voters."

[ehrnst]

69. Thank you so much for explaining to us what's going on outside of DU.

Valuable information indeed!

[Maru Kitteh]

56. Hiding your god-damned tax returns is pretty fucking substantial.

He's in some pretty shitty company in that department as we all know - and people DO care.

WHAT IS HE HIDING? Because if he wasn't hiding something, there would be no need for three years of delay, and likely attempts at clean-up/revision.

[Maru Kitteh]

61. Head firmly in sand. Got it. That's your choice, of course. nt

[ehrnst]

76. It's a good thing no one here is "repeating those ugly/nonsense insinuations" about HRC, isn't it?

Or talking about things that people are suprised weren't held against her.

[ehrnst]

86. Not sure if this is sarcasm or not...

It's hard to tell through text. But I don't want to assume the worst, you being a new member and all.

Maybe I've become cynical through years of browsing Reddit.

[Maru Kitteh]

111. The factual basis is he is hiding his tax returns, and that is disgraceful.

[workinclasszero]

118. Or not, check the latest Wisconsin poll

Sanders holds a large lead among 18-29 year olds, with 61% of the vote, while Warren is second with 15% of support.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/wisconsin-2020-bernie-sanders-leads-democratic-field-trump-competitive-in-general-election

[Hassin Bin Sober]

120. I don't think you will ever get an answer

[George II]

122. More from that poll:

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 54, Trump 46 Biden +8

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 52, Trump 48 Sanders +4

[workinclasszero]

124. Bernie still wins

[George II]

125. Not by as much as Biden, and Biden isn't even officially in yet.

[Thekaspervote]

130. Yes.. I did read it that way

[David__77]

4. I think he can do quite well in California.

The left movements are relatively strong here and I think he can tap into that.

[sacto95834]

8. Lots of Work to be done...

I hope you are right and he does a come from behind and do well in CA. In 2016, CA was one of the last primaries and I was surprised he didn't do better in the Bay Area. His platform should have done well there and to be honest it's one of the few places in the US where his platform might not have been left enough.

Kamala Harris I think will win CA, but all Bernie needs to do is finish strongly and stay near Harris. How Harris does in the early primaries before ST will be telling.

[forklift]

13. lulz

Bernie will be lucky if he got 10% of the vote in California.

btw .. have you seen his tax returns? They seem to be missing.

[oasis]

17. Taxes ? taxes? He don't have to show you no stinkin' taxes.

[redstateblues]

127. What is Bernie hiding?

[oasis]

131. He may have stumbled into the millionaire class (through no

fault of his own).

[George II]

78. Not based on past performance. This time they're voting in March and there's a very popular....

...Californian in the field.

[SFnomad]

121. And don't forget, the Democratic Primaries are all proportional

with a 15 percent viability threshold. If Senator Harris gets the biggest vote in California (very likely) and BS and Senator Warren split the "real progressive" vote, it's quite possible BS will end up with nothing in California. Pity.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

5. I'm seeing a total collapse in support among people who supported him last time.

I think he’s dead in the water here in CA.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

52. Not in my case.

Two weeks back I had to attend an obligatory annual social gathering. I was only reluctant to go because I knew from past experience that this was a very pro-Bernie crowd in 2016. Not dead-ender types, in the main, but active Democratic donors and activists with good political connections.

I was not in the mood to engage with enthusiasts over a man that I have negative feelings towards. So I decided that I'd do my best to avoid politics and grin and bear and discussions that proved unavoidable.

So you could have literally knocked me over with a feather when I, a guy who was keeping his lips sealed, heard nothing but anger and disapproval of his candidacy. And much of it expressed in very harsh terms. I didn't hear of a single person in this large gathering offering Sanders support.

I was stunned. These were largely people who supported Sanders in 2016. Active Democratic donors in Los Angeles.

His support, in my estimation, is gone in California.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

66. They are not the only cases. Just one for illustration.

I'm seeing the support for BS vanishing among Democratic activists who worked and donated on his campaign.

Not only has he lost support, but he's made enemies of people who voted for him in 2016. I think he's going to get shellacked in CA this go round. A poor 4th place at best.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

72. I'm telling you what I'm seeing with my own eyes.

It is beyond the loss of support in an activist class of LA Democrats.

This will be a very tough state for Sen. Bernard Sander (I-Vt).

[ehrnst]

79. But one clearly can from Reddit and other social media, yes?

[ehrnst]

85. You interact with thousands of regular voters online?

I wish I had that kind of time.

[ehrnst]

57. What is it about Gabbards that has you supporting her over Senator Sanders? (nt)

[ehrnst]

88. Who do you consider to be "the political establishment"

if not a Congresswoman and former Vice Chair of the DNC?

[JudyM]

62. Have to agree. They stray farther from neutral all the time. Welcome to DU, Dylanesque.

[GWC58]

84. Not that it matters but here in

Maryland we will not be Feelin the Bern. 😂

[Kentonio]

11. Accusing a Democratic candidate of deliberately trying to get Trump re-elected is disgusting

It's also a complete breach of the rules of this site.

[forklift]

12. I deleted the post

however, that is what most democrats are thinking and it is in fact true. You cannot make me or anyone else who is a loyal Democrat think otherwise.

[RandiFan1290]

15. Welcome Back to DU! nt

[forklift]

16. I have been here for over a month

and I never left ... but your welcome is welcome.

[Amimnoch]

19. Yep. 100% agree.

Proudly one myself. Anyone but him.

[marble falls]

20. So you just undeleted your self delete?

[Kentonio]

22. It is not what 'most Democrats' are thinking.

Please don't be fooled by the DU echo chamber with its endless reverberations from 2016.

[forklift]

32. Here is a great idea

like starting a Bernie underground where all the faithful can gather and party unhindered by Democrats who don't like socialism.

[wasupaloopa]

35. We did that for Hillary in 2016.

It is nice to only talk to like minded supporters.

[forklift]

40. Really?

It was probably a great site and that time there were a lot of bros and sistas.

This time, not so much.

[wasupaloopa]

114. If I say why I would get a hide

[ehrnst]

83. On DU? (nt)

[wasupaloopa]

115. No, we were banned from DU for months at a time

[Kentonio]

110. Indeed

It’s deeply distasteful to see a guy who has fought his whole life for progressive causes being treated like this.

[Devil Child]

94. Welcome to DU Dylanesque!!!

Appreciate your posts!

[Gothmog]

21. I hate to break it to you but many real democrats have very strong feelings about sanders conduct

I was a delegate to the national convention and sanders stunts at that convention will be used in the primaries. At the second night of the convention, I received a warning from the Clinton campaign that the sanders delegates were going to boo Congressman John Lewis as part of a planned stunt. I received this warning 20 to 30 minutes before Congressman John Lewis was introduced and the sanders delegates did strongly boo and call Congressman John Lewis names According to my whip, sanders was asked to stop this conduct and declined.

There are a large number of real democrats who have strong feelings about sanders and they will not forgive or forget

[Kentonio]

23. It's primary season and the rules are very clear about not bashing Democratic candidates.

I don't get why this so hard for some people to understand, or indeed what exactly you think you gain by fueling it. We have a great raft of candidates this year, and if you don't like Sanders there are plenty of other people you can support. This endless bashing achieves nothing other than to piss people off and create unnecessary division.

[Gothmog]

25. sanders is simply not electable

There are a large number of true blue Democrats who have very strong feelings about sanders. Do you think that sanders permitting his delegates to boo Congressman John Lewis will not come up in the primaries? Do you think that I am supposed to ignore the fact that sanders delegates yelled at my daughter at the national convention and called her the c-word because she would not try to get me to change my vote? sanders was repeatedly asked to try to control his delegates and sanders declined. That is something that I will take into account with respect to my vote. There are a large number of Democrats who are very mad at sanders about the Congressman John Lewis incident. These Democrats are not going to forget the fact that Congressman John Lewis was booed at the National Convention as part of a planned stunt by sanders delegates and sanders refused to stop this stunt

There are a large number of Democrats who have strong feelings about sanders and will work to nominate other candidates. I personally do not believe that sanders is electable. I will be supporting other candidates in the primary because I am convinced that sanders is not electable. I was a maxed out donor for Clinton and will be donating to and working for which ever candidate who I believe is the candidate who is the most electable.

Again, there will be ads used in the primaries concerning the booing of Congressman John Lewis. sanders will not do well in the southern primaries and I doubt that he breaks 15% in Texas on Super Tuesday.

[lunamagica]

53. Thank you. It's always good to get the POV of someone who was there

[radius777]

29. Rules are also clear about trying to police the site.

Sanders is a candidate for the highest office in the land, and calling out the record/history/actions of he and his supporters is fair game, as it would be with any other candidate.

Sanders was not thoroughly scrutinized last time; he will be this time.

[forklift]

33. Some people see every criticism and vetting of Bernie

as an attack on him and call it "bashing." Then there are gang alerts and hiding posts.

Have you seen Bernie's tax returns? They seem to be missing.

#whatishehiding

[wasupaloopa]

37. It is early you better get use to bashing of candidates.

People will express their feelings. I don’t see many people with negatives toward other candidates. Mostly because they did not run in 2016.

Bernie ran in 2016 and pissed many people off. No matter how you say it, move on will not work.

[Gothmog]

38. sanders was not taken seriously by the press last cycle and was not vetted

Vetting is important https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/28/why-bernie-sanders-has-an-uphill-climb-ahead/?utm_term=.1b4f90c2a717

Finally, what happens when the oppo dump on Sanders comes? We have no idea, because it never happened in 2016. Clinton was so terrified of alienating his supporters and seeing them vote for Jill Stein in the general election (or not vote at all) that she tiptoed around him for pretty much the entirety of the primary campaign. That doesn’t mean that he’ll be destroyed when stories about the more colorful aspects of his history start cropping up, but there’s just no way to know.

Which is what we could say about the Sanders candidacy as a whole: There’s no way to know how it’s going to go. But he’s got his work cut out for him.

See also https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/19/politics/bernie-sanders-2020-campaign-donald-trump/index.html?utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2019-02-20T14%3A52%3A07&utm_term=image&utm_medium=social%C2%A0

2. How will he withstand more scrutiny and more attacks?
One of the secrets to Sanders' success in 2016 was that no one -- most especially Clinton -- thought he had any chance of going anywhere in the race. Clinton largely ignored him for the better part of 2015, allowing some problematic parts of Sanders' record for Democrats -- most notably his voting record on guns -- to go unnoticed. (When the race began to tighten, Clinton gently prodded Sanders on guns and health care.) Sanders, too, largely flew under the radar of investigative reporters for major news outlets who were busy looking into Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and others seen as more viable candidates. (That reality clearly benefited Donald Trump in the early days of the campaign, as well.)

Sanders will get no pass -- from either the media or his fellow candidates -- this time around. He is among the frontrunners -- and will be treated as such. His wife's time as president of Burlington College could well come up. And his opponents will do a deep dive into his nearly 30 years of votes as a member of the House and Senate. This is all very normal stuff in a campaign. But not for Sanders.

I am glad that sanders will be vetted this cycle.

[Gothmog]

39. According to Nate, sanders has some high negatives

From Nate Silver. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-and-bernies-support-isnt-just-name-recognition/

Sanders, conversely, has a high floor of support and a lot of enthusiasm behind him, but that’s tempered by having some Democrats — 22 percent in the Iowa poll — who have an unfavorable view of him. If that number holds at 22 percent — and the other 78 percent of Democrats would consider voting for Sanders — he shouldn’t have a lot of problems. Still, 22 percent is high as compared with the scores for candidates such as Biden, Booker and Harris, and Sanders will face a new type of scrutiny for him as one of the frontrunners who is taking fire from all sides, instead of being in a two-candidate race as the underdog against Clinton.

I am not the only real Democrat with a long memory.

[BlueWI]

116. To be fair, what were Hillary Clinton's negatives

among Democrats in 2016?

High enough to generate interest in a Sanders candidacy.

I supported Sanders last time but am not going to in the primaries this time because of reasons similar to yours - high negatives within the party. But Sanders still has supporters on this site and nationally, and the issues that Sanders champions are still very important to our common future. So I don't think it's helpful to portray him one-dimensionally, around the events of the convention. Clearly, those one-dimensional portrayals of the candidate were not helpful for Clinton in 2016 either. We badly need the nominee to win, whoever they are.

[MrsCoffee]

9. Roflmao.

Bookmarking.

[TexasTowelie]

10. Beto speaks fluent Spanish, Bernie does not.

That fact will help Beto connect to some voters that will be impossible for Bernie to match.

[forklift]

18. Beto has empathy like Bill Clinton or Obama

and he connects.

Sanders just has one stump speech and 5 talking points that he repeats ad nauseum. That only mesmerizes the faithful who are marching behind like kids behind Pied Piper .

[Awsi Dooger]

30. And we should not devalue Beto's ability to speak fluent Spanish

I saw how important it was in Florida last year. Rick Scott learned how to speak enough Spanish and it helped him cut commercials in Spanish and peel off vital percentage points from the Hispanic block.

Hispanics are unusually loyal to incumbents as a rule. Trump will do much better than imagined with that demographic unless we undertake massive emphasis and chose a nominee who naturally has more pull than normal.

Kamala Harris lost the Hispanic vote to Sanchez despite winning that race by 23 points. I don't know if Harris has learned Spanish since 2016 but I remember that Sanchez tried to use lack of Spanish speaking ability against Harris in that race.

[Gothmog]

80. The Hispanic voter turnout increased in Texas due to Beto

Beto will do well in California

[TexasTowelie]

96. So you are comparing a Republican with a Democrat?

Welcome to DU.

[TexasTowelie]

98. I think that the candidate that communicates and connects with Spanish speaking voterss

in a Democratic primary will have a significant advantage. There weren't many Spanish speaking voters in the early Republican primaries to provide any type of boost for Jeb! so he went nowhere. However, there is a significant number of those voters in the Democratic primaries in Nevada, California and Texas. While I expect Harris to win in California, I believe that Beto is more likely to end up in the top three than Bernie.

[TwilightZone]

101. Texas is part of Super Tuesday

and there are only four primaries/caucuses before then. Even if those four go poorly, there would be little reason for him to drop out before ST.

[TwilightZone]

105. He just announced and the first primary is a year away.

I'm finding these prognostications of "he has no chance" amusing, in that light. I think there's a lot of wishful thinking going around.

[TexasTowelie]

103. To be honest, I don't think Tulsi will get past New Hampshire

so I'll consider your opinion with that in mind.

Beto is already polling at 5%-7% in New Hampshire as a relative unknown. He is consistently in the top half-dozen in most polls without any substantial national exposure beyond his Senate race.

I do believe that Bernie supporters are scared of Beto which is why he was already being attacked prior to his announcement. Beto will definitely siphon off votes from Bernie among millennials.

[TexasTowelie]

112. Link?

I think Democrats want a fighter to go up against Trump, not someone who apologized to Ted Cruz for calling him a liar, like O' Rourke did.

O'Rourke said that he went too far when he called Cruz "Lyin' Ted" during the debates because he didn't want to want to run a negative campaign. That is completely different than offering an apology to Ted Cruz. I wonder why you are making a false accusation against a Democrat?

As far as vetting is concerned, I believe that O'Rourke has been vetted far more thoroughly than either Sanders or Gabbard.

[George II]

100. Sure, being fluent in Spanish won't mean a damned thing in Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona....

...California, or even New York.

[DesertRat]

24. Has he released his taxes yet?

He's been saying "soon" for quite awhile now.

[still_one]

26. Most of the Californians I know will be supporting their Senator. Kamala Harris. Also, I am one of

the Californians who won't be supporting Sanders in the California primary

The midterm primary elections demonstrated that with Senator Feinstein winning, in spite of the voices from the Our Revolution group managing to get the California Democratic party to endorse de León, the Democrats in California spoke loudly and clearly that they weren't speaking for them, and not only did Senator Feinstein get the most votes in the primary, but also in the general election.

[True Blue American]

28. The only thing I am going to say

Is, I watched the Convention, thought it was disgusting that anyone would act that way to John Lewis. That is unforgivable.

[wasupaloopa]

34. I live in CA. We know Kamala Harris because

we voted for her for AG and for the Senate.

We remember Bernie trashing Hillary in 2016.

We will not be voting for Bernie. Some die hards will vote for him but in CA that won’t count for much.

Bernie will not win our primary next year and saying he will won’t change a single mind here.

Bernie is a rerun

[R B Garr]

119. Exactly, he is not winning here. His groups lost their

attempts to smear Feinstein out of her position. The Hillary attacks...no way is that all forgotten.

[scheming daemons]

43. Kamala Harris will win California comfortably.....

Bernie will be a distant 5th..... after Beto, Biden, and at least one other candidate.

[lunamagica]

54. Where are thos tax returns?

[FreeState]

70. Voted for him last time, won't this time without taxes

and a commitment to be a democrat for the rest of his life.

[RandySF]

126. Much of the reporting assumes the entire field will be the same after December.

[Squinch]

128. Wow! Message auto-removed is a BIG BS supporter!

[Blue_Tires]

132. Harris might have something to say about that...

You know, Harris? The person who's actually FROM California?