Bernie Sanders might be losing his N.H. firewall

[brooklynite]

Boston Globe

Bernie Sanders and his aides would be forgiven if, when mapping out his 2020 presidential campaign, they didn’t spend a lot of time wondering how the Vermont senator would win the New Hampshire Democratic primary.

After all, in 2016, no state was better for Sanders than New Hampshire. The independent senator won the first-in-the-nation primary with 60 percent of the vote. The 22-point win over Hillary Clinton — who had a decades-long relationship with New Hampshire — was the biggest victory margin in that state for a competitive Democratic primary in over a half century.

In the years since, Sanders returned to the state often. He maintained a strong volunteer team and a local steering committee that met regularly. His son even ran for Congress in the state last year.

But now, with a little more than six months to go until the 2020 New Hampshire primary, Sanders can no longer take the state for granted. He has gone from being the unquestioned front-runner to second place — and sliding.

[JI7]

1. "His son even ran for Congress in the state last year."

how did that go ?

[brooklynite]

3. Levi Sanders came in 7th in the NH-1 Democratic Primary with 1.7%

[Hortensis]

11. And everyone in the state knew Sanders wouldn't endorse him.

Given the son, that may actually have been a principled position. But it may also have harmed Sanders with people who wouldn't understand.

(Frankly, I'm glad it wasn't my dilemma. Both of our children would make fine representatives.
)

[Cha]

2. He relinquished first place to former vice president Joe Biden and was tied with Senator Elizabeth

Warren of Massachusetts. And while Sanders dropped there, Warren has surged by 14 points.

[NurseJackie]

18. If BS is struggling or threatened in NH, then he's already lost.

[Cha]

27. ..

[bucolic_frolic]

4. However unfair 2016 was to Bernie Sanders

he did not win the nomination and is a retread at this point

[LiberalFighter]

7. I disagree with any assessment that 2016 was unfair to him.

He did better because his campaign manager wrote the rules that the DNC relied on. Meaning they knew how it was all suppose to work.

Maybe if there had been more candidates running he might had stood a better chance. Then again, he might have done worse.

[BlueMTexpat]

10. +1! eom

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I was a huge Obama supporter in 2008 - did not like Hillary.

But you know what? Hillary got a far bigger raw deal in the 2008 primary than Sanders did in 2016. No one seems to ever mention that, though. Sure, the PUMAs did initially but it was quickly forgotten as Hillary worked her butt off to see Obama get elected. But beyond Hillary, her supporters worked their butt off to see Obama get elected. They knew the outcome of that election was far bigger than any one candidate.

Hillary likely won more votes than Obama did in the 2008 primary. Bernie didn't even come close to winning as many votes in 2016.

I think Bernie did well to work for Hillary. I believe a good amount of his supporters did not, however.

[silentEcho]

17. I traveled the same path as you.

2016 was educational in my perception of HRC and the reality of HRC. I came to really appreciate and respect and admire Hillary. I am very happy her voice has not been silenced, and amazed at her level handedness of her voice when she does speak out. A real asset to the Democratic Party.

[silentEcho]

14. Unfair? He was coddled. He was able to do what he wanted in his campaign with no challenge.

[NurseJackie]

19. Thank you. You're absolutely correct.

[Cha]

28. I agree with LiberalFighter.

[Vegas Roller]

5. Sanders should drop out nt

[onetexan]

23. Ditto

[Gothmog]

6. If sanders loses New Hampshire, he will have no path to being the nominee

[NurseJackie]

20. NH is a good bellwether for the future of BS in 2020.

If NH fails to embrace BS, then the Democratic party will not have BS as the nominee... guaranteed!

At that point, he should just withdraw gracefully.

Things are looking up for my favorite candidates, though.

[Gothmog]

8. From my twitter feed

Link to tweet

[NurseJackie]

21. The BS campaign is in trouble and the staff knows it...

The BS campaign is in trouble and the staff knows it... I think the candidate knows it too.

[George II]

9. RealClearPolitics Averages for New Hampshire:

Biden 24.0
Warren 18.0
Sanders 16.3
Harris 13.0

Two latest polls:

CBS News/YouGov

Biden 27
Warren 18
Sanders 20
Harris 12

CNN/UNH

Biden 24
Warren 19
Sanders 19
Harris 9

[questionseverything]

26. our progressive vote is split 3 ways

add the progressive vote together and it is double bidens support

we need ranked choice voting to get the best ,most popular candidate

[Gothmog]

12. From my Twitter feed

Link to tweet

[Amimnoch]

13. Good. Every other candidate is a better choice. -nt.

[SouthernProgressive]

16. He would gain in the polls...

If he shaved his head and wore a bow tie.

[Gothmog]

22. I remain hopeful that sanders will fail to reach the 300 delegate threshold

I was a delegate to the Philadelphia convention and saw how the process works. One key item is that under the rules, a candidate cannot be put into nomination without 300 delegates. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf

Nomination of the Democratic Candidate for President: The Permanent Chair shall receive nominations from the floor for the Democratic candidate for the Office of President of the United
States in the following manner:

a. Requests to nominate a presidential candidate shall be in writing and shall have affixed thereto the written approval of the proposed nominee and the name of the individuals who shall be recognized to make the nominating and seconding speeches on behalf of a presidential candidate and shall be delivered to the Convention Secretary at a location as specified by the Secretary no later than 6:00 p.m. of the day preceding the day designated for the commencement of presidential nominations.

b. Each such request must be accompanied by a petition indicating support for the proposed nominee signed by delegates representing not less than 300 or more than 600 delegate votes, not more than 50 of which may come from one (1) delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one (1) nominating petition for president and for vice president. Pledged and automatic delegates may sign the petition.

If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold

[trueblue2007]

24. Good !!!

[Trenzalore]

25. This isn't 2016

The "anxiety" about Hillary doesn't exists. There are progressives with better stories.

I expect him to be around to the last primary because his supporters will fund him but I don't expect him to be at the top of the conversation come March/April 2020.