The 2020 Texas Polling is Much Better for Beto O'Rourke than Julian Castro

[TexasTowelie]

On Sunday, the latest CBS/YouGov poll of the 2020 Democratic primary was released—and it included detailed polling of Texas, for the seventh time since late April. There are a few things worth tracking in that polling—Pete Buttigieg’s decline from 8 percent in the previous iteration of this poll to 4 percent in this one; Kamala Harris’s jump from 5 percent to 12 percent—but the most striking thing is that, despite struggling over the past month nationally, Beto O’Rourke remains a top-tier candidate in his home state.

O’Rourke’s polling nationally has been brutal for someone who entered the race with high expectations. A poll of New Hampshire last week had the former Senate candidate polling at 0.0 percent, and his fundraising numbers have been similarly dismal. In the key early state of Iowa, the same CBS/YouGov poll that looked at Texas had him at one percent. But here, it’s a different story: O’Rourke polls at a relatively impressive 17 percent, good for second in the field behind only Joe Biden (who currently polls at 27 percent among Texas Democrats). That’s 13 percentage points better than his average among early voting states, and it represents a few significant things for O’Rourke. One, it tells us that, despite a bad past month, his support in Texas didn’t take the same drubbing that it took nationally. Two, he has one important advantage over rivals like Buttigieg: an ability to actually win delegates.

We’ll look at what that actually means in a moment, but we should talk about Julián Castro first. Like O’Rourke, Castro’s numbers are virtually unchanged from previous polls, with the candidate polling at 4 percent. That’s better than his national numbers but it’s nonetheless bad news for him overall because it shows that his much-lauded performance in the first Democratic debate didn’t really improve his standing, even among the voters who likely know him best.

There are still six months until the first votes are cast, and if Castro continues to impress in debates, it might be enough to further establish him as a serious contender—but if he was counting on his first breakout to change his numbers, it hasn’t happened. The bottom line: The status quo is OK for O’Rourke, but pretty bad for Castro.

Read more: https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/the-2020-texas-polling-is-much-better-for-beto-orourke-than-julian-castro/

The concluding paragraph makes an important point:

O’Rourke’s candidacy is a long shot at this point, and if his fundraising continues to dwindle, it gets even longer. But if he has a path to actually earning the nomination, it doesn’t run through Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Rather, it’s through Texas on Super Tuesday, where a significant slice of our 228 delegates—more than the four earliest-voting states combined—could catapult him back to relevance. For now, O’Rourke’s narrow path to the White House goes through Texas.

[JI7]

1. i haven't heard from anyone in Texas that supports Castro or would pick him between him and Beto

[TexasTowelie]

2. I haven't either,

but I have very limited social interaction. The one friend that I have in my apartment complex that I speak to about politics occasionally is leaving today for a trip to New York for the next few weeks. I'm down to my conservative brother for social interaction until the middle of September. My phone is also down because of a fight with my brother and the replacement phone won't arrive for a week or more. If I had access to any building with more than two stories in town, I'd jump.

[JI7]

3. the reason Biden is leading is they see the election as among the top tier candidates

and among them they prefer Biden. If Beto can improve in the polls in the earlier states and do well during the actual voting he will win Texas. Texas is too big to give a symbolic win . But Beto will win it easily if he can do well in the early states.

the fact that he is still doing well in the place people best know him says a lot . while Castro has not improved at all even though the national media has done all they can to talk him up while going negative on Beto 100 + percent of the time.

[Gothmog]

6. Biden is very popular in Texas

[ananda]

4. I love Beto and I like Castro.

They both elevate the conversations we need
to have.

[Gothmog]

5. There are some members of the state party irked at the Castro brothers

The party really wanted one of the Castro Brothers to run for Senate and/or Governor. I met the Joaquin Castro at a town hall that was designed to get him to run for governor. I was disappointed when neither Castro brother ran in 2018 for statewide office.

Luckily Beto was so effective. Beto ran a great senate campaign and so I am not surprised that he is doing well. I am not surprised that Beto is doing better than Castro.

[TexasTowelie]

7. I imagine that if one of the Castro brothers had run against Abbott,

then it could have closed the margin between Beto and Cruz so that Beto would have won. Unfortunately, Lupe Valdez was not a strong campaigner and she had some weak town halls that showed that she was not ready for the governor position.

[Gothmog]

8. Democrats picked 12 state house seats in 2018 and are hoping to pick up 9 more

We could have picked up more seats if a Castro was on the top of the ticket. If the party picks up 9 more state house seats, we will control the state house.

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