Morgan Stanley sees 'credible bear case' for a US recession

[SouthernProgressive]

Morgan Stanley economists see a 20% chance of a recession in the year ahead, but that could move up quickly depending on circumstances.

Trade tensions that could lead to layoffs and a pullback from consumers are at the center of the recession case laid out by Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist.

A Fed rate cut may not be enough to stave off a slowdown that would start as a demand shock, according to the forecast.

CNBC

Elizabeth Warren sees “serious warning signs” of an economic crash

VOX

The bells are ringing.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. The bells have been ringing for the last three-plus years...

Yet it seems every prediction about a pending recession seems to falter.

From 2013:

Economic indicators and long-term business cycle patterns suggest that the United States may be in another recession by early 2014.

From 2015:

Plunging oil prices and a strengthening dollar could force the United States into a recession by the end of 2015, according to Raoul Pal of The Global Macro Investor newsletter.

The greenback’s strength has pushed oil prices lower and sent fear across the markets. Pal said he now feels that the U.S. is heading toward a recession in the near future.

“There’s a probability that the U.S. goes into recession this year alone,” Pal said in an interview on CNBC’s “Fast Money ” on Tuesday

From 2016:

Does the New Year’s market slide presage recession in 2016? That’ll be the chatter of this week, as analysts try to make sense of the wreckage. The majority of economists don’t see recession in the cards. But the majority of economists are usually wrong.

From 2017:

A recession in the United States is likely to come within the next two years. It is difficult to determine when a recession will occur based solely on economic activity. Economists argue about the precursors to a recession as a matter of course. I am not making the case that one will happen because I believe I am competent to enter that debate. Rather, I am making the case that a recession is increasingly likely simply by looking at the frequency with which they occur.

From 2018:

Housing and rates are worrying some economists that a recession is looming.

"One of the biggest concerns is the housing market," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel, on CNNMoney's "Markets Now" live show Wednesday. "It's throwing up a very large red flag and suggests maybe this 4% growth we saw in the second quarter is not sustainable."

Frankly, it feels like every year people predict a recession and it doesn't happen. I guess one day they'll be right. Not saying Warren is wrong but we've been on the cusp of a recession now since we got out of the last recession.

[SouthernProgressive]

2. You can find an article for anything. The internet is a fun thing.

One of your links the guy says he isn't qualified to make the claim he is making.

Two of your links directly state that they don't believe a recession is on the horizon.

I'm just going to stop there. But those are actually directly mentioned in the links you supplied. Sorry I took time to read them.

[marylandblue]

4. What didn't happen in each of those years is the most reliable recession indicator we have.

The treasury yield curve inverted this year, for the first time since the 2008 recession. Prior recessions have generally been preceded by a yield curve inversion. Economists fool themselves by looking at all sorts of less reliable indicators.

[not fooled]

3. pukes desperate

to keep the charade going until after the 2020 election, in case a Dem wins, in which case they will welcome the crash and try to blame it on a Democratic president. Thom Hartmann just laid this out on his show--pukes will continue trying to keep the bubble going for now, then hope the crash takes place as a Dem assumes the presidency.

Well, if red don steals another election--no way there won't be a crash during his second "term."

[bucolic_frolic]

5. I can uncover no scenario which doesn't lead to an imminent recession

Things are sluggish, cutting rates won't help. The country is in a Trump-fueled bewilderment. Even MAGAts have been duped, they don't know what to wish for next. Everyone wants change, but Democrats have more focus this time around.

If unhappiness can cause recessions, we are just about there. Speaking personally, more money or more spending will not solve my problems, discontent, worries, or fears brought on by this Orange Goon.

[sinkingfeeling]

6. My broker says fed will do a rate cut and economy will not

hit recession until after election.

[Blue_true]

9. Then follow your broker. But be prepared to blame yourself because your broker certainly won't take

the blame.

[MichMan]

7. So a 80% chance it doesn't happen

[Blue_true]

8. The economy is consumer led right now.

Elizabeth Warren pointed out that consumers are laden with debt now. How long before they max out their borrowing capacity? Also corporate and personal Liam default rates are rising at a steep rate.

But stay with your 80% against. Similar positions were taken in 2007, when fundamentals advised otherwise. Keep in mind the woman who made the projection is an investment bank economist, her bias is to keep the party going, as in 2007.