Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumThe latest Emerson poll isn't that great for Democrats...
Fortunately, it's just one poll - but it's one Nate Silver rates with pretty high confidence.
Head-to-head, only Biden and Bernie beat Trump, and they do so by very narrow margins:
Biden vs Trump: 51-49
Bernie vs Trump: 51-49
Warren vs Trump: 50-50
Harris vs Trump: 48-52
Buttigieg vs Trump: 48-52
Those margins are not good. Trump's approval/disapproval is also very narrow in this poll, unlike most recent surveys (his disapproval is 46, approval 45 - so a one-point difference).
The good news is that Bernie and Biden lead - and both actually surpass a majority of support. The bad news is that no other candidate leads, with Warren polling the best of the others. Trump actually breaks a majority against Harris and Buttigieg.
Even if name recognition is at play here, the fact Trump is only down two at worst, and up four at best, is concerning.
Hopefully it's just a fluke poll. But it's hard to say without any additional context.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
kimbutgar
(20,871 posts)He allegedly only got 46% of the vote in 2016. They probably just polled a large sampling of white male repukes,
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Recursion
(56,582 posts)That was idiotic on our part; the economy was strong and we should have run on that rather than running from it.
But Trump's not going to make that mistake: he's going to be talking up the economy the entire time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I get the idea that there were still too many people left behind - but the gains America saw from 2009 to 2016 were, in reality, some of the most stark since the Great Depression. We had a president literally lift this country out of its worst recession since that Great Depression and the confidence in the economy at the time was at an all-time high for Obama.
From a Sept., 2016 article:
Consumer confidence rose in September to its highest level since August 2007 -- before the Great Recession.
The data, released Tuesday by the Conference Board, a business association, helps dismiss arguments that the uncertainty of the election is weighing down Americans' perception of the economy, said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, a research firm.
The September confidence reading was 104. It fell as low as 25 during the recession.
The improved outlook reflects a healthier job market, the Conference Board said. The unemployment rate is 4.9%, less than half its peak of 10% during the recession. And the last two years, 2014 and 2015, were the strongest for job growth since 1999.
https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/news/economy/us-consumer-confidence-9-year-high/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
democratisphere
(17,235 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MANative
(4,105 posts)It's all about the Electoral College, as we know too well. These head-to-head polls are pretty worthless.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Because it assumes each election acts in a vacuum when that isn't the case. It reasons if the popular vote is this narrow, that states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states the Democrats lost in 2016, are as likely just as narrow. The fact is, had Hillary bested Trump by the margin Obama bested Romney four years prior, it's probably enough to carry her to victory in those three states.
National head-to-head polling is irrelevant when it comes to electing the president but it's a good indicator of where the race stands nationally. That two-point gap between Biden and Trump is narrow enough that Trump could still eke out wins in those three states. It becomes less likely, though, if Biden, or the Democrat, wins the popular vote by three-plus points.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,953 posts)The point is, with numbers this close, what matters is how individual states go. Those numbers can all hold, and every one of those candidates could still potentially win, if they pick up WI, MI, and PA. I'd rather have smaller numbers and win than bigger numbers and lose.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It shows just how tight the race is - you said it yourself. Had Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 by three-points over Trump, mathematically that assumes her gains would have come in enough areas that she likely wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin - but she didn't do it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,953 posts)It is not inconceivable that Trump could beat Harris or Buttigieg 52 to 48 as you posted, yet Trump could still win the election; OR that Biden or Sanders could beat Trump 51-49 yet still lose the election. These numbers are ALL too close to be able to tell you would win. You'd have to look at the individual states. So my concern isn't that the poll shows only two are ahead of Trump. Rather, they're ALL close enough to lose, and they're ALL close enough to win. Unless you're looking at ten point blowouts or whatever, I think national polls are not worth paying much attention to, it's the swing state polls that matter.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden