Matthew Yglesias, Vox: Get ready for a Booker boomlet, but Biden's still in command.

[highplainsdem]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749171/who-won-democratic-debate-cnn-winners


The headline for this article (as opposed to the subheader, which I used for the subject line) says there were three winners in the debate. Yglesias's third winner, after Booker and Biden, wasn't a candidate but "The Great Winnowing" -- the improement he sees coming when there will be a lot fewer candidates on stage.

-snipping all but the last paragraph of the section on Booker-

One shouldn’t overestimate the extent to which this exchange actually hurt Biden. His support comes from older, working-class Democrats who are generally moderate on social and cultural issues and likely won’t be impressed by the revelation that there’s yet another topic on which progressive activists don’t like Biden. But what Booker needed to do to get out of the doldrums was impress liberals and stop being ignored. He absolutely hit that mark, and his campaign can now aspire to benefit from one of those positive cycles of increased attention leading to increased awareness of his ideas leading to increased support.

-snip-

Even though throughout multiple rounds of combat on Wednesday night more progressive candidates got their licks in on Biden, the former vice president stood up for himself ably. He was on-point, able to parry attacks, and in command of his talking points. If your sense before the debate was that Biden isn’t left-wing enough for you, he didn’t change your mind.

But if your sense before the debate was that you wanted continuity with Obama but were worried Biden was a little shaky, he probably set your mind at ease. Biden came into the debates with a big lead, and after two nights of debating there’s every reason to think he’s still got that lead. When the field winnows enough for him to finally face sustained fire from Sanders and Warren, it’s possible he’ll falter.

But for now, the frontrunner is still running in front.

-snip-

I agree with Yglesias that Booker will probably get a small bounce from last night's debate. I don't expect him to cut significantly into Biden's support, including among black voters, and it's possible he'll instead pick up some of Harris's supporters.

But I don't expect the bounce to last.

Over the past several months, we've seen boomlets for O'Rourke, Buttigieg and Harris.

Biden has stayed in the lead. Warren and Sanders have continued to divvy up a base of progressive support, with their combined total roughly equivalent to Biden's support, and Warren gradually moving from less than half to more than half of that bloc of voters.

The candidates in 4th place have changed, over time. I believe Harris has held that spot more often than most, but her surge after the first debate didn't last, and she didn't make any significant inroads into Biden's support among black voters.

Critics of Biden often try to argue that the main reason he's in the lead is name recognition (ignoring the fact that Sanders has almost equal name recognition, and Warren is close).

What they're missing is the fact that people KNOW who Biden is, after all his years on the public stage, and they LIKE him, and they TRUST him.

[underthematrix]

1. Oh I like that. A "Booker Boomlet" But the truth is people

like and trust Biden. And what a lot of people don't understand, black folks loved Biden before there was Obama.

Link to tweet

[Cha]

3. I love your tweet, underthematrix!

Link to tweet

[underthematrix]

4. Thank you

[Cha]

2. Oh can't wait to

see the poll results of the "Booker boomlet".

What a difference of opinion from that one insulting hit job of an OP.. to this..

But if your sense before the debate was that you wanted continuity with Obama but were worried Biden was a little shaky, he probably set your mind at ease. Biden came into the debates with a big lead, and after two nights of debating there’s every reason to think he’s still got that lead. When the field winnows enough for him to finally face sustained fire from Sanders and Warren, it’s possible he’ll falter.

I hate debates.

Thanks, highplainsdem.. for your analysis, too.

[FakeNoose]

5. I thought Cory Booker handled himself well last night

These debates are great in that the "already decided" Democrats still get to hear the other candidates, and that's a GOOD thing! Every candidate in the Democratic Party has something constructive to say. But how helpful can it be, if people aren't listening to them?

In these debates the news media gives everyone their fair share (hopefully) of the limelight. I'm getting a little tired of Bernie's angry shouting that seems so inappropriate. But really they're all getting riled up, it sort of goes with the territory.