Nate Silver: Where I Think The Candidates Stand After The Second Debate

[highplainsdem]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-i-think-the-candidates-stand-after-the-second-debate/

First things first: Joe Biden is pretty clearly out in front, so I don’t quite get why prediction markets only have him in a rough tie with Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. Pre-debate, he led his nearest competitors (Bernie Sanders and Warren) by 16 to 17 points in the RCP polling average, a margin that’s nothing to be sneezed at given the historical accuracy of primary polls at this stage. And he’s shown some resilience, having already bounced back in the polling average to where he was before the first debate, and then having had a second debate which — while it wasn’t great, in my view — was better than the first one despite a lot of incoming fire from other Democrats. I’m still a seller of the proposition that Biden is an odds-on favorite to win the nomination — that is, I think his chances are under 50 percent. But I think he’s more likely than anyone else.

With that said, I’d keep an eye on Warren, whose strong first-night performance looks better by comparison after a series of uneven evenings for the Democrats last night. She has a clearer message than Harris, and she makes for a sharper contrast to Biden, whom she hasn’t had a chance to share a debate stage with yet.

For that matter, I am almost tempted to say that Sanders’s chances have become underrated if prediction markets have him at under 10 percent to win the nomination. (He’s been hovering at between 6 percent and 9 percent in recent days at Betfair.) I think Sanders has quite a lot of issues that limit his upside, but those seem to be priced into the conventional wisdom about his chances in a way they weren’t before. And I thought Sanders had a pretty good debate. I’m keeping him at the top of Tier 2 for now, but he’s poised to move back into Tier 1 if the next few polls showing him gaining ground.

I do have Cory Booker moving up a tier, from Tier 3 to Tier 2. He was maybe the strongest performer last night from start to finish, he’s been getting more media attention, and he’s poised to benefit from any loss of support from Harris.

-snip-

This column also includes Nate's not-to-be-taken-too-seriously presidential tiers, and I'm copying an image of that from his tweet about it:

Link to tweet

[Princetonian]

1. Nate can be trusted. He is an unsentimental, gimlet-eyed statistician who gained his fame in 2008

I hope Booker rises at the expense of Harris. That would be amusing.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Love or hate the stats... they don't lie

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Stats don't lie, but their interpreters do sometimes

Nate’s tiers are his opinion, drawn from statistics.

Once Warren and Biden share a stage, we will see things start to move.

[emulatorloo]

10. He titled it "Nate's not-to-be-taken-too-seriously presidential tiers"

So I am not taking it seriously

[Cha]

3. KR!

TY, hp

[DownriverDem]

5. Wake up

This election will be won in the middle no matter what some folks think. When are they going to wake up?

[Thekaspervote]

7. This!

[watoos]

6. I don't trust polls or Silver,

why should I? I listen to me. IMO Warren impressed me but Joe did not.

[Progressive83]

9. You don't trust math?

[Garrett78]

8. As I've been saying since Warren announced, Warren hurts Sanders and vice versa.

They'll hurt one another's chances in IA and NH, states that are vital for both.

Either a significant number of Black voters will leave Biden (probably for Harris) or they won't. That's what'll decide the nomination. Once the dust settles, it's Biden or Harris unless Sanders drops out before Iowa and tells his supporters to vote for Warren.