8/6 UT-Tyler TEXAS poll: O'Rourke leads Biden by 2 points, beats Trump by 6 points

[highplainsdem]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20190806_TX_v2.pdf

This is the same margin O'Rourke led Biden by in the last University of Texas at Tyler poll, but it's now 25.19% to 23.04%, and it was 26.4% to 24.4% before the second round of debates.

Sanders is at 16.08% (up from 15.4%), Warren at 10.29% (down from 10.6%), and Harris at 5.32% (down from 8.5%).

(NOTE: This is only Democrats, not including any independents leaning toward the Democratic Party who were also polled. See my addition to this OP below.)

The poll shows 3 Democratic candidates beating Trump in Texas. O'Rourke beats him by 6 points, Biden by 4, and Sanders by 4.

The poll has Warren, Harris and Buttigieg losing to Trump, by 2, 4, and 7 points, respectively.


_________


WHOA.

I'm editing this after noticing that the primary numbers given above count ONLY Democrats, and NOT independents who consider themselves closer to the Democatic Party.

That question is a little over a third of the way down, and it shows the answers in 3 columns. UT-Tyler's top numbers are just the first column, the Democrats.

But Texas has an OPEN primary.

In the column for which candidate Democratic-leaning idependents would vote for, O'Rourke gets only 10.4%, compared to 27.3% for Biden and 28.2% for Sanders.

So when Democrats and independents leaning Democrat are combined, Biden is slightly ahead: 23.6% to 23.3 % for O'Rourke.

[at140]

1. Go Beto in TX!!

Harris is sinking fast after 2nd debate! But she has plenty of time left to regroup.

[Peacetrain]

2. Repeating myself.. WOW Texas is in play!!

Go Beto and Joe and Bernie,,.. Its a dream for me to see Texas go blue.. and one I may yet live to see..Thanks for the post highplainsdem

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Texas is in play with Beto campaigning too

he doesn't even have to be on the ticket, he has big influence

Blue Texas would solve a LOT of problems. A LOT OF PROBLEMS.

[DrToast]

3. I was a bit skeptical if the few initial polls...

...but it sure is starting to look like Texas is in play. Wow.

[TexasTowelie]

4. The poll was conducted from August 1 to August 4

which means that half of the poll was conducted prior to the terrorism in El Paso. Look for Beto's numbers to soar in subsequent polls due to the leadership that he has provided.

[peggysue2]

6. I would love to see Texas Go Blue but . . .

where we need to spend our energy and really focus is in the swing states because nothing should be taken for granted. Texas is big on the wish list and every indication is that things are beginning to shift from red to purple to blue. But for 2020? It's still a long stretch.

[highplainsdem]

7. Well, if Biden is the nominee, and O'Rourke endorses him and campaigns hard for him,

I think we could have a better chance of turning Texas blue in 2020 than even the latest polls indicate.

[peggysue2]

10. I like Beto O'Rourke and I agree that he would campaign his heart out but . . .

I just don't see two white men heading the 2020 ticket. Not with the genuine yearning out there for a woman if not in the cat seat then riding shotgun. I've always thought a Biden/Harris team would be ideal. Now after the brouhaha during the debates, I'm not so sure (although the two of them still appear to have a congenial relationship).

We shall see. I suspect O'Rourke will have an uptick in the polls after his powerful presentations in El Paso. The moment of crisis and uncertainty has allowed O'Rourke to shine is his ability to bring people together and comfort the city's shock and grief. If Biden nabs the nomination, the VP decision will be really important. He'll need someone young and vital to balance out the ticket. Bringing a purplish state like Texas into the Blue column would certainly be a coup.

Oh God, I'll be glad when this primary is over! Too many uncertainties to deal with.

[DrToast]

13. I wouldn't worry about Biden and Harris's relationship

They both know it’s politics. I haven’t heard anything to suggest that they couldn’t be part of the same ticket.

But I agree that it will be nice when the primary is all over! Let’s get to the main event!

[peggysue2]

14. Yes, yes & yes!

I want this damn cast-of-thousands scenario over already. It'll improve my heartburn.

[DrToast]

8. Ohio was swing state in 2016 and Arizona ended up closer

Swing states are changing.

[TexasTowelie]

9. If the Democratic party spends money in Texas for 2020,

then it could result not only in an Electoral College gain of 38 electors, but it could also yield as many as 10 Congressional seats for a decade. There are about seven districts that are vulnerable this election cycle. Texas is also expected to gain as many as three representatives in the 2020 census. If one keeps that in mind, then Texas may be a better investment even if it is a larger stretch compared to the Rust Belt states that are losing representatives.

What message would it send to potential Democratic voters than to see the national party turn its back on a state that provides campaign cash that is distributed throughout the rest of the country? The consequences extend beyond the 2020 election.

[peggysue2]

12. I'm not suggesting turning our back on Texas, simply . . .

remembering how we lost 2016. And yes, for all the excitement, Texas is a long stretch in an election we must win.

[OldDem65]

11. O'Rourke still gets more Independents and Republicans in a general election match up against Trump

This is all before the Domestic terror attack in El Paso as well. It is likely to change.

[Gothmog]

15. Texas will definitely be blue in 2020

[essadaw]

16. Thanks for posting

It is good to see more Texas polls. So far--no surprise-- it looks like Beto or Biden would be our best chance for Texas.

I wish there were demographic breakouts (age, gender, race) in these recent polls, since I'm curious if Beto and Biden may have somewhat different appeal to different groups which might be causing the differentiation between polls depending on how the projected turnout is modeled.