Quinnipiac, 8/6: Biden 32%, Warren 21%, Sanders 14%, Harris 7%, Buttigieg 5%,

[highplainsdem]

Booker 2%, O'Rourke 2%


https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08062019_ubrt73.pdf/

This compares to results of a July 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll, showing Biden with 34 percent, Warren with 15 percent, Harris with 12 percent and Sanders with 11 percent.

In today’s results:
•Biden gets 47 percent of black Democrats, with 16 percent for Sanders, 8 percent for Warren and 1 percent for Harris;
•Women Democrats go 31 percent for Biden, 24 percent for Warren, 10 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Harris;
•Very liberal Democrats go 40 percent for Warren, 20 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Biden and 7 percent for Harris;
•Somewhat liberal Democrats go 28 percent for Biden, 20 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Sanders and 10 percent for Harris;
•Moderate/conservative Democrats go 43 percent for Biden, 11 percent for Warren, 9 percent for Sanders, and 4 percent each for Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Editing to add more details from the poll:


Biden is considered the most electable by 49% (Sanders 12%, Warren 9%, Harris 6%) and the best leader by 33% (Warren 22%, Sanders 13%, Harris 7%).

Warren has the best policy ideas according to 32% (Biden 17%, Sanders 16%, Harris 5%, Buttigieg 5%).


So. Warren's support is primarily from the "very liberal" wing of the party (where she has more support than Sanders and Biden combined; note that Biden nearly ties Sanders with this group now), and from voters focused on policy.

Biden leads among black voters by a huge margin and among moderate/conservative Democrats by a wide margin, and also leads among somewhat liberal Democrats and women voters.

Biden's 37 points ahead of his closest rival when voters are asked who's most likely to beat Trump. Sanders, Warren and Harris combined have only slightly more than half the support he has when voters are asked about electability.

And he's considered the best leader by a significant margin.

[nycbos]

1. Warren has overtaken Sanders?

[highplainsdem]

2. Yep.

[SHRED]

3. Can't wait till we narrow the field

It'll be very interesting where the polls land then.

[nycbos]

5. Definitely.

[George II]

4. Uh oh.

[highplainsdem]

6. ????????

[George II]

7. Biden was supposed to be slipping by this time - this confirms he's maintaining his lead.

[highplainsdem]

9. Yep. Warren leads only with very liberal policy wonks. Biden's ahead with other groups of Dems.

So we have a popular policy wonk's policy wonk vs an even more popular and experienced leader whom most Democrats consider far and away most electable.

[Scurrilous]

13. ...

[Cha]

8. If I were to guess...

I would say he's talking about Sanders.

[highplainsdem]

10. Bernie's supporters definitely won't like this poll. OTOH, there are some recent polls showing

him ahead of Warren.


Editing to add that I just checked the RCP poll average

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

and they have Sanders at 17.2% and Warren ar 15%,

Harris down to 9.3%.

[Hortensis]

18. Sanders' #s have remained suspiciously high. No standard poll I've seen

has dropped below 11%, but more have been up to around 19-20%.

I just don't believe a fifth of all Democrats are supporting someone with his history and ideological bent, which leads him to claim at virtually every appearance that Democrats are hardly better than or really just as bad as Republicans. "...anyway, Democrats do it too" ("It" being packing the courts with RW extremists who are using their power to persecute black people). Bizarre.

Not happening.

Has any pollster tried to estimate how many conservative Democrats and conservatives in open-primary states are once again supporting him, or him and others, strictly as spoiler votes to try to take out whichever candidate becomes favored by most Democrats?

We're know they're in those poll numbers. Conservative Democrats have always had a strong pattern of voting Republican for president, which held in 2016, and we know that many of Sanders primary voters then had absolutely no intention of voting for him for president.

Plus, it's not the same thing, but regarding Sanders' own true believer types, numbers very similar to 2016 have once again angrily promised they won't vote for any of the Democratic candidates now or in the GE, just him. We should believe them. While they do have to be counted for his current support, at the same time including people who won't be voting Democratic is also distorting the picture for all.

[colsohlibgal]

11. Long Way To Go

Not close to a lock yet. I can go back to a few candidates who looked inevitable 15 months out who fell by the wayside.

To be fair Joe is not my first or even second or third choice..his age worries me as well as some other positions he has taken. Again I generally like him and would surely vote for him if he is indeed the nominee. I just think we need to skew younger and also, as a woman maybe after 40 some men maybe it is past time for maybe one female.

My favorites are Warren, Harris, Insley intrigues me, As does Mayor Pete. Warren is no spring chicken either but if she won two terms she would then be close to Joe’s age right now.

[highplainsdem]

12. Warren is 70. Biden is 76. So people concerned about age really shouldn't think Biden's

too old, but Warren isn't.

Particularly since the main reason I see people mention age as possibly disqualifying or at least concerning is risk of Alzheimer's.

Women have roughly twice as much chance as men of developing Alzheimer's at the age Warren would be at if elected in 2020 and winning re-election in 2024, so her odds of getting Alzheimer's are probably at least as great as the odds for Biden, or for Sanders, during the same presidential terms.

And the risk for all three of them is minimal, given how healthy they are, how committed they are to their careers, and their family/social ties.

[Vegas Roller]

14. Looks like the electorate doesn't care about policy

They just want to beat Trump - and Biden is their man to do it.

[YOHABLO]

15. What happens when you combine Sanders and Warren's percentages?

[Demsrule86]

16. Sander's second choice is generally Biden.

[highplainsdem]

17. Won't happen. Neither is likely to drop out before the primaries are over.

Both apparently believe they're the most-progressive candidate who should stay in and the other should drop out, and as far as I can tell from Twitter, their supporters agree,