Why you shouldn't take current Iowa polls too seriously.

[MBS]

Report about the Iowa caucuses, via the Washington Post.https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/iowa-is-awash-in-candidates-but-dont-expect-clarity-until-the-very-end/2019/08/10/a52a6bba-bb72-11e9-a091-6a96e67d9cce_story.html

DES MOINES — Iowa is awash in presidential candidates this weekend and, if you like your politics deep-fried, this is the place to be. But don’t try to make sense of it all. It’s far too early for that.. . . The convergence of candidates in Iowa in the past week has drawn people from around the country. Some have come out of a pure love of politics just to watch. Others have come with a more serious purpose — to find the candidate they believe can defeat President Trump in 2020. Their sense of urgency about that mission is unmistakable. Iowa’s place at the front of the nominating process has been set by tradition and now by rules established by the Democratic and Republican national committees. Its presidential caucuses kick off the primary caucus season and it acts as the great winnower of candidates. Only a handful of this record field of candidates will survive the caucuses in February, though the number seems murkier than ever this year.
. . .
Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register and in this cycle also for CNN, has earned through many presidential cycles a reputation as the best pollster of Iowa politics. From that experience, she offers two pieces of wisdom about how to think about the coming months of campaign here. The first is never to disregard dark horse candidates.. . . Selzer’s second observation is a variation of the first. “I have seen enough elections to know how fast things can change and how common it is for things to change when we’re in the field doing the final poll before the caucuses,” she said.. .

The most recent survey Selzer conducted was in June, before either of the two debates, but she has takeaways from the data collected at the time that offer some guidance about the shape of the contest here. One is that the state’s Democratic electorate might not be quite as liberal as characterized. Another is that, while electability is prized over issues by many voters here, integrity and intelligence rank as the two leading attributes for which voters are looking; electability is fourth.

The June Iowa Poll asked respondents to give their first choice for the nomination as well as their second choice. It also asked people to say who else they might be actively considering. Selzer combined those responses into what she described as the candidates’ footprint in the state, which provides some sense of the top tier here. Five candidates have a majority in that calculation: Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) with a combined 61 percent; Sanders with a combined 56 percent; and Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.) and Buttigieg each with a combined 52 percent.. . .

[stonecutter357]

1. let's go Joe !

[Thekaspervote]

2. K&R!!