Beto to give national address tomorrow !

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Link to tweet

[ProudMNDemocrat]

1. Might Beto be reconsidering running for the US Senate?

Whereas he would be of more use to the people of Texas in the US Senate than as President? The shooting in El Paso left him emotionally drained and angry at the lack of action on the part of Republicans to move on Gun Legislation.

Beto is a good man and we need more of his passion in the US Senate perhaps.

[liskddksil]

2. No. Beto is running for President. Everyone supporting other candidates

is just going to have to beat him fair and square.

[dalton99a]

5. People don't know the guy. He drove tens of thousands of miles in his ground campaign against Cruz.

He is not a quitter and he really doesn't give a shit about media pundits

[essadaw]

7. Exactly--it is not in his character to quit

In Beto's 1st campaign for El Paso City Council, he was a serious underdog--and he ended up winning. Then, he took on an incumbent member of Congress who was endorsed by both Bill Clinton and Obama and polls showed him losing badly--and he ended up winning. Everyone said it was political suicide when he took on Cruz, but while he came just short in MIDTERM, he changed the face of Texas politics so much that now Texas is a battleground state.

It is not in his character to quit

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. I think he's great. What do you think will have to happen

For him to win the nom though? He would have to leapfrog a bunch of people with double digit support. And they would have to falter too. Tall order when you are sitting at 3%?

If it's just "anything can happen, keep up the hope" -- I get that. Too bad it's not humanly possible for him to visit every county in the country since he's so good at one on ones.

[essadaw]

13. History has examples of things changing

Not always but there are strong examples of candidates coming from behind

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-more-than-40-years-of-early-primary-polls-tell-us-about-2020-part-1/

538 analyzed past primaries--In 1976, Carter polled at 0.8% for the 1st half of the year and 0.5% for the 2nd half of the year prior to the primaries. He didn't have much name recognition but even when 538 tried to mathematically adjust for name recognition, Carter's numbers were very low.

In December 2003, here is a national poll that had Kerry at 4% and Edwards at 2%--guess who became the ticket? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-dean-pulls-away-in-dem-race/

And here is what Iowa polling expert Ann Selzer--who has far more insight than me or anyone on this board-- said this week: "Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register and in this cycle also for CNN, has earned through many presidential cycles a reputation as the best pollster of Iowa politics. From that experience, she offers two pieces of wisdom about how to think about the coming months of campaign here. The first is never to disregard dark horse candidates." and "Selzer’s second observation is a variation of the first. “I have seen enough elections to know how fast things can change and how common it is for things to change when we’re in the field doing the final poll before the caucuses,” she said." https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/iowa-is-awash-in-candidates-but-dont-expect-clarity-until-the-very-end/2019/08/10/a52a6bba-bb72-11e9-a091-6a96e67d9cce_story.html?noredirect=on

Beto needs to keep being Beto. Right now the field still has 20+ candidates. Beto qualified weeks ago for the 3rd & 4th debates. People in real life that I talk to, not political junkies, are barely are aware who is running for president beyond a some name recognition and most don't really care at this point.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Just read up a little on Carter, since

you mentioned. From Wiki : (in light of Watergate), Carter realized that his status as a Washington outsider, political centrist, and moderate reformer could give him an advantage over his better-known establishment rivals.

It later went on to explain that Carter benefitted when his liberal rivals split the votes in certain primaries.

I think a key to this will be the squeeky clean personna post scandal. Carter had that image. so does Beto, IMHO. What I do wonder though, is about the policy side. Do people, in general, also want moderate reform, after they've lived through turmoil.

[bigtree]

3. that doesn't sound anything like what's coming out of the campaign

Link to tweet

[mtnsnake]

10. Beto is considering running for the US Senate just as much

as Joe Biden is considering that option.

[essadaw]

4. I can't wait to hear more from him

All the other supporters of other candidates who are pushing so hard for him to drop out and drop out right now, should just stop.

Regardless of whether Beto is your preferred candidate, he is doing a lot of damage to Trump on the national stage. Big Picture--Trump is who all of our candidates need to be politically damaging. Trump is who we need to defeat.

Beto has been responsible for Trump's possibly worst week of media coverage since Trump entered politics. More, please.

[Docreed2003]

6. +1

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. Agree. Need more impassioned critique of trump. No

More silly arguments over details of plans.

[dalton99a]

12. +1

[Gothmog]

11. Yeah for Beto