Change poll Iowa: Warren 28% Biden 17% Sanders 17%

[Fiendish Thingy]

MOE - 3.9% ; Warren is definitely the front runner in this poll. Sanders was the clear front runner with 18-30 year olds, more evidence that a Status Quo nominee will suppress the youth vote.

Online poll, so read the fine print on methodology

https://www.changeresearch.com/iowa-poll-august-9-11-2019

https://t.co/zAXhmsvbf3

[LittleGirl]

1. It's called Momentum! N/T

[Hortensis]

13. :) It's called highly questionable. Please read to question.

It's not that I don't like Warren also. But keeping ourselves informed and hard to fool is really important these days.

1. The Change Research poll was conducted entirely online (!), and RealClearPolitics doesn’t count Change Research polls because of that.

2. In contrast, a Monmouth survey (conducted via telephone by actual human beings) found Biden still holding the lead at 28 percent, with Warren in second place at 19 percent, and Sanders in third place at 9 percent.

3. CNN’s polling analyst Harry Enten notes that Change Research “had Buttigieg leading and at 25% in Iowa. I think skepticism is warranted.”

This company now has Buttigieg at 13%, and it's Warren who's made a double-digit leap.

[BlueMTexpat]

15. Good points!

And yes!

[bearsfootball516]

2. I'd like to see if more polls are reflecting this.

Because this is the second poll from Change today showing Warren with a substantial lead in a midwest swing state. I'm not saying I don't believe them because Warren DOES have a lot of momentum, I'd just like to see it mirrored by another pollster.

That being said, Change Research predicted the Gillum primary win in Florida when nobody else did.

[bluewater]

4. That's being very reasonable.

It's best not to over emphasize any single poll and it's best to average results from a number of different pollsters to mitigated effects of any systematic bias in any firm's methodology.

But it doesn't mean poll results should be "unskewed" just because the results are not what some people want.
That seem to be what's happening today in other threads about Change Research.

Change Research is an online poll rated C+ by 538 and people are trashing its results today.

HarrisX Polls is an online poll rated C+ by 538 and is posted all the time here on DU and it is widely accepted as golden.

But people are tying themselves in knots today trying to explain why one online C+ rated poll is good and the other should be ignored.

HarrisX has been consistently good for Biden, Change Research has not, could that be the reason why?

Seems so.

[SouthernProgressive]

3. There is no such thing as a "status quo" nominee.

That is the biggest bunch of bunk being pushed.

[pnwpolicy]

7. Biden was VP for 8 years in the last administration

And reassures people that nothing will fundamentally change when he's president. How is that not the status quo?

[SouthernProgressive]

9. Biggest bunch of bunk being pushed. NT

[OhZone]

5. Didn't they have Buttigieg leading before?

OHMY!

[highplainsdem]

10. Yep. They had Buttigieg leading in Iowa, at 25%, a month ago:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287198007


Meanwhile...the A+ rated Monmouth poll from a little over a week ago has Biden ahead in Iowa, 28% to 19% for Warren, 11% for Harris and 9% for Sanders.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_080819.pdf/

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Wow. If true, Mayor Pete has collapsed.

Which I don't buy anyway. So.

[aikoaiko]

8. Very impressive Elizabeth Warren. so many people wrote you off early.

[highplainsdem]

11. The A+ rated Monmouth Iowa poll done a week earlier has Biden 28%, Warren 19%, Harris 11%, Bernie 9%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_080819.pdf/

[crazytown]

12. I will go by a Monmouth poll any day.

The commonality between the polls is that Warren is rising and Sanders falling. If Warren joins Biden at the front I expect, like a cracked record, the MSM will lay into her, promoting their tired old 'horse race'. Medicare for All is an obvious venerability. Nevertheless, she gave as good as she got in Debate 2. RIP John Delaney.

[duforsure]

14. Her organizational skills, intellect, and speaking skills

And policy plans are overwhelming all other candidates. It's clearly showing her abilities to connect with people, and reflect true values people want to have in OUR government. She's also down to earth, and is feared and respected by everyone for the truth.

[OhZone]

16. Next week they'll have Pikachu ahead at 32%

ha