run for Senate in 2020, zero. He was absolutely unflinching in his turndown of that option. It 99.9% is not going to happen and I accept and respect his decision. Part of the reason I can accept that versus the other 11 states of the 12 possible flips is that Texas is by far the hardest (Kentucky is probably the 2nd hardest), no matter who runs. Cornyn is not Cruz, he is far more formidable and a loss (especially a large one) for Beto in a 2020 Senate race would be a stake in the heart of future political runs for him, at least at a major level, IMHO.
The big problem we have is that right now is that of those 12 possible flip states, only AZ (Mark Kelly) has our strongest possible candidate running. Hickenlooper in CO would make it two, and I think CO is ours, even if Hickenlooper is not our candidate (CO is also the only state I can say is pretty much a lock, or at least on the way to being a lock, for a flip.) That still leaves 10 others who lack the best possible candidate. That simply must change.
Here is my rundown:
We need a plus 4 net to flip the Senate to 51-49 as it stands, and 5 if Paedo Moore is not the Rethug Alabama nominee (and even that bastard will be hard for Jones to beat in a POTUS year in Alabama.)
These are all the remotely possible races where we can flip, all 12 of them. Some are very much a stretch, and also we are having a lot of big names refuse to run, in fact, all the arguably best candidates in 11 of the 12 states have all refused, so far, to run.
Arizona (Mark Kelly has a great chance at beating McSally. This is the one state so far that we have the best potential candidate already running.)
Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, our ex US Senator, runs versus Sullivan, he has said he was not, but now may change his mind)
Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no quite emphatically, would have been the best to knock out shitbox Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another one, it looks likely to be Sara Gideon atm)
Montana (Bullock is basically the only one of ours who would have a great chance at beating Daines, I think Bullock would defeat him, but he has said dozens of times he will not run.)
Colorado (even if Hickenlooper refuses, I think Gardner goes down, but Hickenlooper makes it 90-95% that we flip)
Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw reconsiders his turndown, he would have the best shot from all I have seen, most of the other candidates we have are already one time losers, some just last year, or retty unknown. The two I see who are the best should McGraw not change his mind are Jeff Yarbro and James Mackler)
Georgia (Stacey Abrams and Sally Yates would have had the best chances by far to beat Perdue, but each one has said no over and over, so it is going to be much harder I fear, even though Perdue is weak, and a shit campaigner. So far it looks like the best of the rest are Teresa Tomlinson and perhaps Jon Ossoff )
Kansas (open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, maybe Kathleen Sebelius, but she also just said no, and a big local paper says that really hurts our chances)
Iowa (Cindy Axne and Vilsack, probably our 2 best chances to beat Ernst, both have declined to run, but I have hope we can find another great candidate, Theresa Greenfield or Abby Finkenauer look to be the best of the rest)
North Carolina (our two best candidates by far, Foxx and Stein, have both said no, and I so hope one, especially Foxx, re-considers.) Tillis is so ripe for the picking if we get one of those 2 to run, and still may have a shot if it is another, Cal Cunningham perhaps, or Erica Smith, but both will have a harder time that Stein or Foxx would have had.
Kentucky This is probably the 2nd toughest. Andy Beshear might have had a shot at dumping McTurtle, but he is running for Governor, Amy McGrath is who we are going to have to roll with, and it is not impossible, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate. Overall a huge reach, but so hope Moscow Mitch goes DOWN. McGrath needs to make no more errors like the one she did right at kickoff (saying she would have voted yes for Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. The same thing crushed Bredeson in TN in 2018, it so depressed our base turnout.)
Texas Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, IMHO, even if Beto runs (which I doubt he will.) Cornyn is streets ahead of Cruz in terms of TX popularity.
We would need to win five of those to flip the Senate to 51-49 if Jones loses in Alabama, and only Colorado is even close to one that I would say has a pretty good chance to label a semi-lock, and some (especially TX and KY) are just downright so so hard, even if the best candidates change their minds and run. 52-48 is the magic number for us, as that negates Manchin (WV) and Sinema (AZ), who by FAR are the most likely to vote with the Rethugs (they both do so around 55% of the time, the next highest is the Independent, Angus King of Maine, at only 39%.)
Schumer and Cortez Masto have been so poor at recruiting the best candidates as it stands, it is one of the biggest stories of 2020 so far.
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
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If I were to vote in a presidential