Biden Still Holds Solid Lead Nationally

[applegrove]

Biden Still Holds Solid Lead Nationally

August 15, 2019 at 6:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 286 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/15/biden-still-holds-solid-lead-nationally/

"SNIP.....

A new Fox News Poll finds Joe Biden continues to lead the Democratic presidential race with 31%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 20%, Bernie Sanders at 10%, and Kamala Harris at 8%.

Everyone of the four frontrunners beats President Trump in general election match ups.

The leaders are followed by Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, and Andrew Yang stand at 3% apiece, and Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke are each at 2%.

.....SNIP"

[True Dough]

1. I bet the Biden supporters will continue writing thread titles like

"Biden Still Holds Lead Nationally" when Warren climbs to within one per cent of his lead?

[calguy]

2. Just stating the facts as they exist today

[True Dough]

3. Warren continues to close that gap

It's also a fact. Buckle up!

[onetexan]

7. geez someone's a bit touchy eh? The poster of this thread is actually "Undecided" mind you

Also note Warren is only coming close to Joe in..oh maybe 1 poll? Overall he still has a hefty lead. And no we Biden supporters are not gloating. It's a fact.

[True Dough]

10. The trend bodes well for Warren

She's been red hot and on the rise. Joe is stagnant. I'm sure we'll exchange notes again over the months to come as your "hefty" withers away.

[Thekaspervote]

19. Yes, her numbers have come up... I see 2 things wrong with your assumption

1. She still polls very poorly with the AA voting block. Last Quinnipiac poll shows her at 8%.. can’t win on that- primary or the general.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637 dated 8/6

SC, the bellwether state for the AA vote is some better for her, but still low with mr. Biden holding a 19 pt lead over warren

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457373-biden-tops-democratic-field-by-19-points-in-new-south-carolina-poll dated 8/14

2. Many assume that when candidates begin to dropout that warren or Harris will gain significantly. Except the polls don’t show that at all. Morning consult polls show that second choice preferences will not eat into his lead

Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/ dated 8/12


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

[True Dough]

21. That's all well and fine

but we'll see where things stand in October. By then 8% could be 20%. She's on a roll and is only 7 percentage points out in the hallowed Biden state of Pennsylvania. No poll was indicating that sort of surge for Warren a month ago.

[Thekaspervote]

22. Agree, that could be the case. Just sayin.. the polls don't indicate such in SC or ntl

And second choices aren’t going to bring about a seismic shift in voter preferences

[Cha]

23. Mahalo for this detailed report, Thekaspervote!

I wish Warren well.. what I don't like are supporters of other Democratic Candidates insulting Biden Supporters.

[Thekaspervote]

24. Agree! I really wish when posters giving their supporting opinions for any candidate would

Acknowledge such. Otherwise back it up with facts... preferably reliable links.

I really should thank highplainsdem for the morning consult post. I just bookmarked it and now passing it on!

[Cha]

25. Mahalo for passing it on! highplainsdem is one of

the best.. I love all our Biden supporters and Allies(those who support other candidates but stand up for Biden, too).

[Thekaspervote]

26. Smiles

[Cha]

16. Also, onetexan.. PoliticalWire wrote that headline..

I love Biden Supporters and our Allies who stand up for Biden even if they're supporting someone else as first choice.

[onetexan]

45. Exactly Cha, we should be supportive of all our candidates

Given at this point it remains to be seen who will win the nomination. Not eating our own is the way to go, &may the best man/woman win. End goal is to kick this Idiot out of WH

[emulatorloo]

11. Biden's at 31%, Warren's at 20%

Biden and Warren are my top two. Mayor Pete number three.

Poll doesn’t say anything about Warren being behind Biden by 1%.

As my mom used to say, don’t count your chickens before they are hatched.

[True Dough]

12. I wasn't raised by your mom

I'll see you again when that 1% becomes reality. I'll wager it's by October.

[emulatorloo]

13. What do you see in this poll that indicates that?

I’ll be happy w either Warren or Biden as our nominee.

My mom was great and very smart. Too bad you didn’t know her.

[True Dough]

15. I'm judging by the trend of several recent polls

Warren is a juggernaut, and she's forcefully making a strong case for herself and her policies on the campaign trail. She has momentum.

The best Biden can do is a step back followed by a step forward. He's running in place.

[emmaverybo]

17. He's running ahead. NT

[True Dough]

18. For now. Not for long.

[LanternWaste]

38. Cool allegation... but no evidence supports it.

I get it though... as long as you believe it, that's good enough.

[True Dough]

43. "Allegation" doesn't fit

Allegation: a claim or assertion that someone has done something illegal or wrong.






See you in October!

[LongtimeAZDem]

53. Yes, it does

allegation noun
al·​le·​ga·​tion | ˌa-li-ˈgā-shən
Definition of allegation

1 : the act of alleging something
2 : a positive assertion especially of misconduct Some former colleagues have made serious allegations against him. specifically : a statement by a party to a legal action of what the party undertakes to prove
3 : an assertion unsupported and by implication regarded as unsupportable



allegation noun
al·​le·​ga·​tion | ˌa-lə-ˈgā-shən

Legal Definition of allegation

1 : the act of alleging
2a : a statement not yet proven

[Bradshaw3]

54. More of the same

Can't make a post without taking a unfounded personal shot at another poster, can you?

[Cha]

14. Political Wire wrote that headline and the OP

is Undecided from Canada.

And, you have no idea what Biden supporters are about with your gratuitously rude post.

[Thekaspervote]

20. Hi Cha!! Agree! Hope you will see my post above #19.

Lots of rather baseless assumptions goin’ round

[applegrove]

29. Not just undecided but planning on staying out because i am from canada. I love all the top

candidates. I try and post a little on everyone.

[Cha]

30. Right.. certainly not trying to pump up

Biden over others.

Mahalo, apple!

[applegrove]

31. I think he has a great heart. I would love to see them all win. There is something

in the way Bernie explains things beyond simple yelling that has already changed the hearts of many. Kamala is electric one on one. Warren has the plans to build a much better country and she makes it sound to easy. Buttiggieg has the politics down to a vision.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

35. Wishful thinkin by his supporters... the more Biden campaigns, the more Warren gains on him.

The gaffes by Joe just keep on comin... go Elizabeth and Bernie!!


Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[LanternWaste]

39. This would be a good time for you to invoke the "polls don't matter!!!" routine.

It's a tried and true method to deny math and sampling when they don't align with our narratives.

Wishful thinking, indeed.

[BannonsLiver]

46. Bernie's really tanking

Might be a good time to think about jumping ship. I know it’s fun to amplify MSM/GOP talking points on Biden for someone who hates him, but won’t it be awkward if he is the nominee?

[Demsrule86]

47. Warren has no support in the AA community...she is not going to be the nominee...and she is likely

to lose states...the national polls inflate her numbers...where as the opposite is true for Biden.

[True Dough]

50. It's hard to tell the Biden supporters apart sometimes

The same points are made over and over. A number of you keep claiming only Joe can take Pennsylvania and yet Warren is now polling within 7 percentage points of Biden.

Sleep with one eye open...

[Cha]

51. It's not hard to tell who you are, Ture Dough.. always

insulting Biden supporters.

[Demsrule86]

55. Baloney...Joe will take PA.

I have seen other polls that clearly show that but without AA support she is going no where nor is your candidate.

[True Dough]

56. Aug. 18

That's today's date. We'll see where things shake out in a few months.

[myohmy2]

4. Fox News Poll...

...I'm not sure if I trust them...

...it's still very early, but that's not to take anything away from Joe...

...Joe's a nice guy...

...he's always struck me as the kind of guy who'd drive Meals On Wheels to Seniors...

...

[NYMinute]

5. K&R nt

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. MOE of 4.5% - Biden's lead could be as narrow as 2%

So much for "invincible inevitability".

[Skya Rhen]

9. Or with that same MOE, Joe could be at 35.5 and Warren could be at 15.5. See how that works...

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. Yup, so be wary of these polls

The inevitability may not be so inevitable- if this were the general, would you be comfortable with such a MOE?

[LanternWaste]

40. No is calling it inevitable...

except for those who called other candidates "anointed."

(being 'comfortable' with statistical sampling is not the purpose of statistical sampling... just in case you're unaware of that bit of relevance)

[democratisphere]

8. Joe Biden will be our next President. THEN we will all sleep better at night.

[ucrdem]

42. True that.

[Demsrule86]

48. Absolutely true.

happy days...

[Celerity]

28. wow, this is a poll I actually trust and Buttigieg is crashing out

That SB cop shooting looks to have been a really bad inflection point for his campaign so far. He is going to need a massive debate performance to recover. It appears that a lot of his support has went to Warren, if you add up the net gains and losses of all between when Pete was at 8% and now the present (3%). I cannot believe he is now tied with Yang. SMDH

Warren cannot win if she does not improve her percentage of support from African American voters. That has crushed Pete (he is at basically zero in this poll.) Ironically, Beto is also at 3% now and black voters are his strongest demo (6%.)

[BeyondGeography]

33. The black vote is doing what it always does at this point

Sticking with the known quantity. The majority see how it plays out and then make their decision. If the known quantity falters his support among black voters will too. People are making a mistake if they think Warren or anyone for that matter will not appeal to black voters based simply on the numbers right now.

[Demsrule86]

49. He is not faltering...though...still well ahead of the pack.

[oasis]

32. Solid. nt

[elocs]

34. That's like saying a horse has a solid lead in the Kentucky Derby

before they have left the starting gate just because he was given the best odds of winning.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

37. Good analogy!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[ucrdem]

41. LOL. More like the tortoise and the hare.

Warren is in fine form but she's still in Bernie's lane, with Bernie's baggage, notably Medicare for All and her commitment to abolishing workplace health plans.

[elocs]

44. The problem with those who favor MFA is that they are disingenuous about it

inasmuch as they know it is unlikely to ever become law yet they hold out hope to people that it could become law soon.
They never give a realistic explanation of how Medicare for All could be passed into law.

[ucrdem]

52. Completely agree.

Pretending MFA is a road-ready alternative to the ACA only helps Trumpsters kill the ACA. When Warren said at the last debate that she didn't know why anyone would run for president who didn't want to dream, the crowd cheered, but Delaney was right. And my question would be, if you're going to run for president, why not build on what's already been accomplished instead of reinventing the wheel?