Of the 23 remaining democratic candidates, who do you think or hope will drop out next?

[IrishEyes]

Last edited Mon Aug 19, 2019, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)

[brush]

1. Gabbard.

[Life_Long_Democrat]

5. Agreed nt

[wildflower]

2. I think it will probably be one or more who don't make the next debate

Last edited Mon Aug 19, 2019, 01:20 PM - Edit history (2)

The latest I'm aware of, nine candidates will be in the next debate:

Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Bernie Sanders
Kamala Harris
Beto O'Rourke
Cory Booker
Pete Buttigieg
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang

And Julian Castro needs one more poll to qualify. Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard hit the donor mark but haven't yet reached the polling requirement.

That would leave the rest to decide whether they want to keep going:

Kirsten Gillibrand
Jay Inslee
Marianne Williamson
Michael Bennet
Steve Bullock
Bill de Blasio
John Delaney
Seth Moulton
Tim Ryan
Joe Sestak
Wayne Messam

[blm]

6. I hope Inslee stays in.

[IrishEyes]

7. Me too. I really like him.

[karynnj]

9. Looking at the list, here are my guesses

Gillibrand - early on pundits listed her as likely to run and do well. She absolutely has not. She is a Senator since 2009. She might see that with a safe seat and 10 years of seniority in a Senate where that might soon be a chair of a mayor committee. She may see that as a better way to go given her lack of traction in the race. Staying in would likely only make her less popular.

Michael Bennet - he is a serious Senator and getting no traction.

I would guess Inslee would want to stay thru the climate change debate. I also wonder if he sees a possibility of being the one to eventually gain Biden's support, in the unlikely event he implodes. He has the experience that Beto lacks. If Biden looks strong and he fails to get traction after the climate change debate, he might withdraw noting he did make it more of an issue.

I could see Moulton, Sestack and Ryan staying in until after Iowa, holding out hope for a conservative Democrat winning - as they claim they can better unite the country. They might consider how big the Joe Lieberman wing of the party proved to be. Bullock could be in this category too with the additional comment that his very late entry, much anticipated by some pundits, meant he had no less covered time to hone his message - something that has hurt him.

Though I wish they would drop out tomorrow, Williamson, Delaney, Steger and De Blasio are on ego highs, and Williamson is likely earning more on book sales being out there. Delaney and Steyer, at some point might see they are wasting money.

I have absolutely no clue on Messam and I have followed the race.

[IrishEyes]

13. I agree with your answers.

[IrishEyes]

10. You've got Williamson on there twice.

Maybe that is a sign that she will be next to drop out.

[wildflower]

11. Oops

Maybe Time to edit again!

[Polly Hennessey]

3. Gillibrand

[mcar]

4. Gabbard, Williamson, Delaney, Yang

[Pisces]

8. Gabbard, Gillabrand, DeBlasio, Beto, Bullock, DeLaney, Ryan, Williamson

[lillypaddle]

12. Although not really a dem

Wish BS would drop out and go tf away

[TSIAS]

14. Harris

I dont know exactly why but every time I watch her she makes my skin crawl.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

15. I'm dubious that anyone drops

Obviously, not making the next debate is a problem, but candidates will (not entirely unreasonably) cite "Well, at this time in 2007 Barack Obama was at x%" or "at this point in '15, Trump was at 1-2%."

If you ask who I hope will drop out: Beto and or Julian Castro so one/both can run for Senate against Cornyn.

Who should? At this point, most anyone polling lower than Mayor Pete should leave, but most won't.

- Delaney has been doing ground game in Iowa for coming on two years, and I think still believes he has a puncher's chance (he doesn't - and should go focus on starting his run to replace Larry Hogan in 2022).
- Same with DeBlasio. He's not even terribly popular as NYC Mayor.
- I think Yang, Steyer, and Inslee are all there to make points that have nothing to do with being President.
- Williamson has a following and wants to see where this all goes.
- Klobuchar is banking that she will overperform in Iowa due to name familiarity there (since she is Senator from a neighboring state - like that Obama guy), and I think she's on the Veep short list.
- Similarly, I think at this point Bullock, Gillibrand, Gabbard, Ryan and Sestak are auditioning for Veep.
- Booker will stay in through South Carolina - don't ask why, but I'm convinced he will.
- I know very little about Messam.