"Trump Could Win Again..." And my reponse

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Article-

Trump Could Win Again
He’s unpopular, scandalous, and a bigot, and we may be sliding into a recession. But that might not matter.

There are many reasons President Donald Trump might lose reelection in 2020. He is deeply unpopular. Most Americans abhor his bigotry. His administration has been plagued by all manner of scandals. He has failed to live up to his many grandiloquent promises. The country may be sliding into a recession.

Put all of this together, and it’s easy to imagine Democrats riding a big blue wave to the White House next year. But I fear that it is somewhat more likely that Trump will be able to declare victory on November 3, 2020.

Trump’s approval ratings are the most commonly used metric for how likely he is to win reelection. At first sight, they hold a lot of comfort for the president’s opponents. According to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker, for example, more Americans believe he is doing a poor job as president than believe he is doing a good one: About 54 percent disapprove of his performance. Only 42 percent approve of it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/trump-could-win/596389/

My response

Dear Professor:

While I am loathe to disagree with a professor, especially a Harvard one, I must. In your article in The Atlantic you suggest re-election campaigns are choice elections. The peer reviewed research suggests re-election campaigns are referendums on the incumbent. I am specifically referring to the field of retrospective voting. Simply put if voters like the job the incumbent is doing they rehire him or her. If they don't, they don't.Incumbents often end up garnering a share of the vote that is consistent with their approval rating at the the time of their election. Of course unpopular incumbents try to turn turn their re-election campaigns into choice elections but that gambit often fails. They try to make it about their opponent and not them. It didn't work for Bush Pere and it didn't work for Carter.

You cite the approval ratings of Obama, Reagan, and Trump at this point in their tenure and find them roughly similar and state Obama and Reagan were re-elected so there is precedent for Trump being re-elected. The difference is we were coming out of a recession with those two gentleman when we are going into one with Trump and if not a recession, at least a slowdown.

Trump has a small margin of error and a smaller reservoir of good will. I rather have the Democrats hand than his. Let's just throw in the fact the good guys have won the pop vote in six of the past seven elections. The vagaries of the antebellum Electoral College likely won't save him this time.

Harvard might just do it again. Instead of a former alum it might be a former Harvard professor.

Sincerely, Brian

To be fair the professor loathes Trump as much as I/we do. I just don't agree with his analysis. Can Trump win? Sure, you would have to be an idiot after 2016 to entirely rule out a Trump victory. Is a Trump win more likely than not ? I would say no, especially if his economy goes south

[rampartc]

1. trump can win

he is giving the yahoos everything they have always wanted, with even more promised.

if we do not nominate a real challenger and support him/her at the polls trump can easily be reelected.

furthermore, trump supporters will reflexively vote for the most regressive candidates in every other race. their gerrymanders still exist. trump could easily retake the house and state legislatures as well.

whatever went wrong with the polls in 2016 has changed?

has the interference with the election, from whatever source, been fixed?

2020 can be a disaster.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Sure he could win again.

The question is like any proposition that carries a non zero probability is it more likely than not.

[babylonsister]

2. He's not the only one. I

did not want the bad juju for posting this, but here goes...

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/taibbi-trump-2020-be-very-afraid-872299/

Trump 2020: Be Very Afraid

America is the first country to ever elect a Mad King, and the way things are going, we may be dumb enough to do it twice

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I didn't get much out of the article other than Taibbi wants to be Hunter Thompson...

I didn't get much out of the article other than Taibbi wants to be Hunter Thompson whom he'll never be and that yahoos like Trump. They always have.

[Hoyt]

4. Wish I felt that trump will lose, but I believe even GOPers expressing dissatisfaction with him,

will vote for him when it's time to pull the lever.

Don't think a deep recession is a given in the next 16 months. I think trump will promise some health care legislation -- to be completed in 2021 -- that settles enough people down. It'll be a con, just like everything he does.

And, I'm not discounting some hurt feelings from Democratic primary results like 2016, another Comey, and a disinformation campaign. Finally, I believe GOPers will force trump out if it looks like trump will lose decisively and cost other GOPers their elections, nationally and locally.

Still amazed at the people who continue to support trump openly, and no telling how many closet racists are out there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. There's more Dems than Reps and Dem leaning independents.

[Hoyt]

9. Like to believe so, but we'll see if it shows up in tally on 11/3/2020.

[abqtommy]

7. tRUMP's "win" in 2016 was Grand Theft tRUMP abbetted by the reTHUGS, sPUTIN and the Russian Mafia

I think tRUMP and his supporters will try for the Grand Theft again and it's up to the rest of us to stop it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Comey killed us and although it was inadvertent the damage was the same as if it wasn't.

[abqtommy]

10. I'd like to have a look at Comey's financial records before I

called his actions "inadvertent", but maybe you've already done that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. His subsequent actions certainly show he's repentant

But alas that doesn't undo the damage.

[JI7]

13. Comey thought Hillary would win so he wanted to be on record as scolding her

like the rest of the asshole men.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. +1

[JI7]

12. Trump can only"win" by cheating . he can't win a fair election

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. +1

[Gothmog]

14. Trump can win with 45% of the vote

Link to tweet

And that’s why, as Axios reports, they are planning to hold on to the minority of voters who support the president while working overtime to launch a scorched-Earth campaign against the eventual Democratic nominee.

“The GOP]is going to make whoever the nominee is radioactive well before they get the nomination,” one former Trump campaign aide explained. “That’s Trump’s strategy. Stay at 45-46 percent [in the polls] and just make the other guy radioactive.”

Given Trump’s own unpopularity, the campaign reasons, the only way to get him back into the White House will be to convince swing voters that the Democratic nominee will pack the Supreme Court, end the Electoral College, and grant reparations to black Americans.

Throughout his first term, Trump has consistently posted lower approval ratings than any of his predecessors. FiveThirtyEight’s average of public opinion polls at the moment gives Trump an approval rating of just under 42 percent with a disapproval rating of 53 percent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I addressed their strategy

“The GOP]is going to make whoever the nominee is radioactive well before they get the nomination,” one former Trump campaign aide explained. “That’s Trump’s strategy. Stay at 45-46 percent [in the polls] and just make the other guy radioactive.”

The peer reviewed research suggests re-election campaigns are referendums on the incumbent. I am specifically referring to the field of retrospective voting. Simply put if voters like the job the incumbent is doing they rehire him or her. If they don't, they don't.Incumbents often end up garnering a share of the vote that is consistent with their approval rating at the the time of their election. Of course unpopular incumbents try to turn turn their re-election campaigns into choice elections but that gambit often fails. They try to make it about their opponent and not them. It didn't work for Bush Pere and it didn't work for Carter.

[Claritie Pixie]

18. Trump cannot win with his base and didn't in 2016.

The professor's analysis assumes that 2016 was fair and square, which it wasn't.

If 2020 is fair and square he can't possibly win. With a little help here and there, he can certainly be installed for a secind term of illegitimacy.