It comes down to 77,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Assuming our candidate holds the Clinton states all he or she has to do is flip 77,000 votes in those three states. That's not tantamount to climbing Gangkhar Puensum. Trump's base is older. If nothing else mortality will make up the difference.

Can Trump win? Sure. You would have to be an idiot after 2016 to entirely rule out a Trump win. The question with any proposition with a non zero probability is it more likely than not. I would argue no.

The election is not tomorrow but if it was tomorrow I'm certain he would lose.



P.S.Comey killed us in 2016 and although it was inadvertent the damage was the same as if it wasn't.

[brush]

1. Agreed. 2016 was the luckiest confluence of events ever...Comey's letter, Russian bots/tampering...

repug vote suppression, so-called "economic anxiety"—it won't happen again.

Buyers remorse is setting in for many trump voters (see 2018), as is his oncoming and increasingly obvious dementia that is affecting his disastrous tariff policies—he's going down.

[StevieM]

5. All that stuff was important, but Comey dominated that election from start to finish.

His bogus press conference in July did enormous damage.

The 2016 election revolved around the scandal about nothing.

[brush]

7. So true. It's easy to think his Oct. letter was the most damaging but the July presser, being...

several months from the election, allowed all that fake poison about Hillary to sink in and get internalized for a long time.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. Not necessarily. States' voting tendencies could have shifted.

We can't afford to focus only on those states - wish we'd go back to Howard Dean's 50-state strategy.

[jalan48]

3. I hope our candidate really campaigns in those states this time around.

[elocs]

8. Yeah, Clinton didn't show her face once in WI during the general election campaign.

That didn't work out so well for her here.

[Autumn]

4. Those states are the Blue Wall. They have voted for the Dem in the GE from 1992 to 2012

They went for Trump, for some strange reason in 2016. They showed up for the Dems in the 2018 midterms, the possibility is very high they will go for the Dem again in 2020.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/11/republican-losses-wisconsin-michigan-pennsylvania-blue-wall-donald-trump-2020/1946853002/

The battle lines in these Rust Belt states were drawn by stark political trade-offs of Trump’s Republican brand. Trump won here in 2016 when massive gains among blue-collar and rural whites outweighed his weaknesses in the suburbs and cities.

That math backfired in the midterms. The rural vote mostly held for his party. But Republicans lost ground in the suburbs and were swamped by a huge outpouring in cities of Democratic voters mobilized against the president.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Thanks for posting.

[sacto95834]

9. In Retrospect...

and i know hindsight is 20/20. But I don't think the Democrats and especially Hillary Clinton took Trump seriously. I just don't think it entered their minds that America would vote for such a flawed candidate and awful human being.

However before these states were part of the "Blue Wall," they were battleground states and have always been referred to as such. Not campaigning in those states was a terrible mistake, one I hope won't be repeated. But the writing was on the wall for all to see. Wisconsin had flipped over to Republican control and Scott Walker and his legislature were consolidating power. In Michigan they had a right wing governor and the Republicans controlled the legislature.

Pennsylvania was still controlled by the Democrats, and probably the worse "surprise" of that awful night. A perfect storm, yes indeed, but foreseeable in hindsight. And whatever you may think of Michael Moore, he was front and center screaming that Michigan, his home state, was in trouble. I wish he was wrong.

[Autumn]

12. I don't think any of us took him serious. I thought it was just a publicity stunt.

Michael Moore was right, he knew. I hope the nominee takes it seriously and doesn't give an inch in any state.

[caraher]

10. True in a fair election

But we also know Putin had his hand in the game, and Moscow Mitch is doing his level best to stop efforts to prevent 2020 meddling. We have to plan to flip the vote by a lot more than the 2016 margin in these states.

[BlueWI]

11. Disagree.

To assume that the same hypotheticals from three years ago will apply to this election cycle is bad strategy.

Minnesota is in potential play for Trump. Lost by a whisker last time. Florida, North Carolina, Iowa and Arizona are within striking distance for Democrats. It would be great to have a hedge against an unexpected loss in another state.

There are Congressional races all over the country. Some focus is needed to make a Democratic president have s chance at passing legislation.

Complacency needs to be avoided. A full court press is the ticket, from now till November.

[mcar]

13. 2016 was an imperfect storm

At least Comey won't be around this time.

[SidDithers]

14. Trumps got big trouble in those 3 states...

Ooops, WI not PA.

Sid