** NEW ** Morning Consult/Politico Poll - vs Trump: Biden +7, Sanders +5, Warren (-), Harris (-3)

[Skya Rhen]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/21/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-beat-trump-poll-1470372

Biden and Bernie the only Democrats to beat Trump in new poll

Snip...

Biden leads Trump by 7 points overall in the POLITICO/Morning Consult survey and also posts larger leads than the other Democratic candidates among independents (by 8 points), self-identified moderates (27 points) and voters in the Midwest (5 points).

Biden “would potentially attract the most broad swath of voters across the ideological spectrum in a matchup against President Trump,” said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president. “Our polling shows 38 percent of independents and 9 percent of Republicans say they would vote for Biden over Trump, respectively. Bernie Sanders receives the same level of support among independents but less Republican support at 6 percent, while Elizabeth Warren holds at 32 percent of independents and 5 percent of Republicans.”


https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/190845_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_JB.pdf

Biden 42 vs Trump 35
Sanders 40 vs Trump 35
Warren 35 vs Trump 35
Harris 32 vs Trump 35
Booker 28 vs Trump 35
Buttigieg 27 vs Trump 35
O'Rourke 28 vs Trump 36

[DownriverDem]

1. Biden Can Beat Trump

If Biden picks a strong, progressive, Dem woman to run as VP, they will be a formidable ticket. We have never had a woman VP. Americans are slow to accept women leaders. A woman VP would show them that they should not worry. Beating trump is all that matters. We need to focus on that.

[sharedvalues]

3. Any Dem can beat Trump. Only some Dems can beat the GOP that supports him.

Our goal 2020-2024 is to beat the GOP. It’s not just about beating Trump in 2020. If we fail to beat the GOP after we win the White House, you can expect: no cabinet secys confirmed. No judges confirmed. No laws passed. Gridlock blamed on Dems. Then, in 2024: a Republican like Trump except more effective, like Cruz or Hawley. Then, America will truly be lost.


Trump is historically unpopular. Almost any Dem will beat him. But we also need to worry about beating the GOP.

[Princetonian]

34. Only one Democrat can beat Trump and that's Biden.

[Demsrule86]

4. A woman VP might cost the ticket votes...

Not sure this is the year for a woman VP...we have to win.

[uponit7771]

9. From where ?! Across the non existent independent and cross voters ?!!? I'm not understanding how a

... women can hurt dems in a turn out election.

There are no more get the cross and middle voters elections, they don't exist

[Demsrule86]

14. Studies show a fair number of voters don't want a woman president...and there is the Bradley

effect as well. I believe sexism along with other perfect storm shit cost Clinton the election. It is so important we win ...not sure about taking chances. Perhaps a Latina candidate. That is a group that has been overlooked...might help to turn out the vote.

[HerbChestnut]

15. wtf...

[Demsrule86]

16. I am afraid of Trump winning...this is a sexist country...sad to say but it is true. I am not sure a

about a woman VP...this year. Nothing must stop us from removing Trump.

[LincolnRossiter]

25. That's crazy talk, brother. We need a woman on the ticket to help fire up our staunchest voters...

Do I need to remind people that a woman got the second-most votes in any election in U.S. History (Hillary 2016 came in shy of only Obama 2008)?

[Demsrule86]

26. No and in general I would agree...but this year is different. We need to get rid of Trump. I don't

want to risk a Bradley like effect and lose 2020...Trump must go. I was bitterly disappointed when Hillary lost as we all were...and I believe sexism played a role...a perfect shit storm of course...now this election is going to be close...and we can't afford to give Trump four more years. I want to see a woman president and VP in my lifetime...not sure this is the year to risk it.

[Celerity]

28. I am somewhat down the road toward agreeing with you (unless that woman was possibly Stacey Abrams

as she outs GA, FL, and NC really in play I think.)

That said, what do you think of a VP Deval Patrick? He is a longtime Obama favourite for a potential POTUS run, and he would probably help ensure a turbo-charged A-A turnout (as would Abrams, both more than a VP Harris IMHO.) He also is philosophically closer to Biden I think than all I have mentioned so far, especially on economic issues. His main downside is that he is from Massachusetts, and thus does not expand the map, and also will make the far left howl I fear (his ties to Bain Capital at the fore of that.)

Booker I cannot see Biden going for (I might be wrong, but there again, it is East Coast totally.)

Maybe Cedric Richmond, whose only downside is he is only a Representative, BUT was the CBC chair and is on Biden's campaign already as Co-Chair.

I we put aside both race and gender, then I would say maybe Bullock (I wish he wud bloody run for the MT Senate seat, he is by far our best chance there, BUT he woud be great as Bidens VP I think) or Inslee.

Risk-adverse Biden will not chose Pete (anti-LGTQ backlash, especially amongst my fellow PoC, I am sad to say) and the same for Castro (reparations and his decrim stance on illegal immigration.) I doubt Beto, as TX in play is a pipe dream until 2 or so cycles down the road, and I think risk-adversity comes back into play as well (I may well be wrong.)

A perfect VP for your male scenario (IF race is removed as well) would be Sherrod Brown (hello Ohio) BUT picking him fucks our chances at flipping the Senate, as assuming Jones goes down in AL, we would then need to flip SIX seats (and hold all our defends) just to get to 51-49, 7 flips to get to a Manchin/'Sinema (they vote with Rump and the Rethugs around 55% of time, FAR more than any other Dem) nullifying 52-48 majority. Maybe Ryan (I know you like that option, or at least you did at one time) but he has his anti-Pelosi baggage to overcome (which, ironically, might make him even stronger in the Midwest, as much as people will howl here.)

Other options, Roy Cooper from NC (Governor and REALLY puts that state into play)

Martin O'Malley (ex Governor, already a bit vetted due to 2016 run)

John Lynch NH (ex Governor, most popular governor in the US whilst he was in office, and also most popular in NH history)

Martin Heinrich NM Senator

Gavin Newsom CA (he seems a POTUS type out of Hollywood casting, Harris would probably rage, lolol, who knows, I think he deffo runs for the top ina few years)

super wild card

4-Star Admiral William McRaven (brilliant guy, super charismatic and looks the part, but needs to be seen if his cancer (which forced him to step down as University of Texas President several years back) is in check. He would smash Rump and Pence on a Rethug strong (not really, it is a myth, they are shit) point, military security)

[Demsrule86]

33. I like Patrick Deval...I liked Castro but he has gone to far with immigration...

I like Newsom...too. I love Abrams. Two guys are definitely the safe choice sadly...and we can't take a Senator from a state with a GOP governor...I favor geographic picks...so it would make sense to pick someone from Texas or Georgia...or maybe Florida.

[Joe941]

30. Oh please...

[Demsrule86]

32. It is a legitimate concern...how much of this lies beneath the surface ...unspoken? Is it enough

to give Trump an electoral college win? Personally if we choose a woman VP, I wold pick Tammy Duckworth. She has military experience and is a hero...but it is a risk and should be considered...is this the year we do it or not.

[sharedvalues]

2. Where? National polls don't matter

What matters is PA, WI, MI, FL, NC, AZ, and yes.. TX polls.

Those may be even worse for the president. Let’s see the state polls.

[oasis]

5. Joe's refreshing calmness has a lot to do with his popularity. nt

[peggysue2]

11. I agree, oasis

The calm, the steadiness linked to the hands-on experience and knowledge are Biden's biggest assets. People see and hear that and say 'yes, this is the antidote to Trump.'

[highplainsdem]

20. Agree completely.

[Joe941]

31. How about Bernie's calmness?

[Thekaspervote]

6. Thx for posting!!

[sharedvalues]

7. Most Dems can beat Trump

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

17. That is not true...we believe this at our own peril. Defeating a sitting president is never easy and

Trump has a solid base and only needs to win three states to win...hold and hold what he won last time. He needs WI, PA and MI. He gets an electoral college win...sure we more than likely win the popular vote again which does us no good. He is going for an electoral college win.

[sharedvalues]

19. True, electoral college matters. but still read this

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-alternative-scenario-trump-loses-and-its-not-even-close

And remember if we beat trump in 2020 and the GOP beats us with obstruction and nothing gets done 2020-2024 then Josh Hawley or Ted Cruz wins in 2024, thecountry is sunk. Which candidates can beat the GOP at their own game 2020-2024??

[Drunken Irishman]

21. I do think most Democrats could beat Trump...

I do not think most Democrats can do so convincingly - and these polls prove it. Biden leads Trump by a very comfortable margin. Only Sanders, to an extent, compares. While national popular vote does not matter much, it does give an indicator of what the general vibe is nationally, especially since no election happens in a vacuum. I've spoken about this in the past - the things that make Trump unpopular in California are there in Pennsylvania.

My concern is within the margins, to be honest. Had Hillary won the national popular vote by the margin Obama did in 2012, she'd be president right now. But it was so narrow that it allowed for the anomaly of Trump eking out wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I do not want to risk that again.

[sharedvalues]

22. Fair. Check out my other post though

We need to counterbalance the need to win in 2020 with the need to beat the GOP from 2020-2024. We have to pick a candidate that will lead us through those four years and defeat Mitch McConnell.
To me the nightmare scenario is we win in 2020, fail to fight GOP, they block everything, then Josh Hawley or similar wins in 2024. That would almost be worse than Trump stealing election again in 2020. I’m not sure which would be worse. Both bad.

[5starlib]

24. True, Biden is the ONLY Candidate to put the election out of cheating distance with 400 EV's

BS, Warren, Harris, Pete, and the others are 270 EV candidates. Joe Biden is a 400 EV candidate. That's the difference. We don't need a Dem that, if lucky, can scrape by and win 270 EV's, which is what the others could do. A scenario likes this puts the election in the hands of the Russians and other vote suppressors.

[Scurrilous]

8. ...

[Stallion]

10. Note Trump's Numbers Flatline Even Against the Less Popular Democrats

,,,so the undecideds can't bring themselves to switch to Trump

[Hortensis]

12. But so what? The polls that can measure against Trump will be GE polls,

Last edited Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:50 PM - Edit history (1)

when the Republicans and Russia, and other enemies, go after our nominee. Right now they're going after Biden, so there's at least some validity to that measure, but not against Sanders.

That Biden's history is so well known -- Americans feel they know Joe -- that it gives him protection and puts limits on their abilities to restyle him as a demon.

Not Sanders. The media's silence on his background means the character assassins essentially have a blank canvas to fill as they choose, and his background provides a lot of little core nuggets to wrap in massive lies and distortions and/or blow up as themselves, with various spins added of course.

Just a MILD sample of RW slander from the NY Post: "But he’s not even a socialist. He’s a communist. Mainstreaming Sanders requires whitewashing his radical pro-communist past. It won’t be easy to do. If Sanders were vying for a Cabinet post, he’d never pass an FBI background check. There’d be too many subversive red flags popping up in his file. He was a communist collaborator during the height of the Cold War."

I don't see right now how our enemies could make Sanders our nominee, but the opportunities that would give their swiftboater machines are probably the wet dreams of those working on 2020 right now. We know Judicial Watch alone already has several dust-catching Sanders scandals designed and just needing updates with final details and FOIA filings before launching.

And of course their A teams are all working hard on Biden, with teams assigned to others as well.

The people polled haven't seen anything yet, but eventually every one will as it's all personally targeted in barrages over several months to more than 150 million voters.

[karynnj]

13. Observations just from the numbers -- the question was likely asked differently

In most other polls, Trump is at about 40 and the various Democrats in the mid to high 40s. That meant that all but 10 - 15 percent chose one or the other. Here the lowest number not choosing is 23 percent.

Another observation is Trump is consistently at 35 or 36. I suspect that the difference might be because the Democratic race is still in play and some people have lower name recognition. Looking at the cross tabs, I have two observations - This was a VERY long survey. It is long enough that I suspect that many people might have started to simply answer "I don't know". Look at the cross tabs and you will see some very unlikely things -- ie look at African American, where we KNOW that for every Presidential candidate in decades, the Democrat gets nearly 80+ percent. Many candidates have near 40 or over 40% in the undecided category - even Cory Booker!

If the survey questions were in the order of the report, they were after many other questions -- and there were at least 50 questions.

[Demsrule86]

18. He won in 16 with polls like that...this is an electoral collge election...not a national election

Trump has a good chance of winning again which is terrifying.

[karynnj]

23. I am absolutely not questioning that Biden is ahead

What I am questioning is that the numbers are as low as in that poll. I suspect that many people tuned out.

[Demsrule86]

27. I was talking about not taking it for granted that it will be easy to beat Trump...he had bad

numbers and still eked out electoral college victory...I have no idea who is ahead for sure...think Biden may be but who knows?

[karynnj]

29. I agree that we do not know who would win critical states, even if the election were now

In 2016, Trump's position was improving in the national polls as the election approached. In many important states, there were no polls in the last week or so, even though the numbers in some cases were still no strong enough to put the state in either column. Nationally, the Clinton lead was down to 3 percent.

One thing that we learned only on election night, was that a significant majority of people who had unfavorable opinions of both choose Trump. The pollsters COULD have known this because many polled favorability and the head to head face in the same poll - so they could have estimated that and I kept looking for it. Last week, I heard one of the polls including that for people who had negative opinions of Trump and Biden, they said if they had to choose, more chose Biden.

What we do see in this poll, is that Trump is not in good shape. This is more significant when seen as he has been underwater since he became President and the current numbers are somewhat worse than before. Note that strongly disapprove is very large. IMO, people rarely move from strongly disapprove to voting for someone and it may be an indicator that they are very likely to be motivated to vote him out. Consider also, that this is in a good economy.

If Biden's advantage in the polls compared to other Democrats is still there 6 months from now when the primaries start, I think he will be the nominee. I also think that it would be tough to find an example where winning the primary does not show that the winner is the stronger candidate, especially if it is over a favorite.