New YouGov/Economist Poll: Biden 22 (-1), Sanders 19 (+3), Warren 18 (-2), Harris 8 (NC)

[HerbChestnut]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u4gcv1suy6/econTabReport.pdf

Buttigieg also at 8 (+2). Tight race.

Edit: Corrected Warren's numbers.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

1. .

[HerbChestnut]

3. Notice how quiet it is in here...

[Hassin Bin Sober]

4. .

[HerbChestnut]

7. LOL

[Uncle Joe]

2. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread HerbChestnut.

[HerbChestnut]

6. No problem, Uncle Joe.

[CentralMass]

5. K&R

[Demsrule86]

8. You gov has never really been good on Biden so he must be ahead for sure.

[HerbChestnut]

9. He is.

RCP has him firmly ahead right now. It's the intra-poll trends that matter though, and Biden has been falling a bit in the YouGov/Economist polls. I'm not convinced Biden is creating enough enthusiasm around his campaign to keep him in the lead through the winter.

[Demsrule86]

10. I disagree.

And it will heat up as we get closer to Iowa.

[Princetonian]

13. How is Bernie doing in South Carolina?

[HerbChestnut]

14. Not great, but still top 3 or 4? Depends on the poll.

Not sure how that's relevant here...

[Princetonian]

21. Prediction: Bernie won't crack 15% there.

[highplainsdem]

18. Biden's critics have been "not convinced" he'll maintain his lead for several months now.

Reality keeps disappointing them.

[HerbChestnut]

19. It's just a matter of time, in my opinion.

His campaign is intentionally limiting his public exposure, and his policy stances inspire no one. Also, he's yet to share a debate stage with Warren. He's being held up because he was Obama's VP. There is a reason he's never cracked 3% any other time he's ran for the presidency.

[highplainsdem]

23. All the predictions for months that some event in the near future will cause Biden's

collapse in the polls have been proven wrong, and IMO yours will, too.

Biden's critics have vastly overestimated both the importance of the debates, and the ability of the other candidates to attract a lot more supporters.

And it's more than a little strange to point out that Biden didn't get above a few % in earlier runs (which is also true of most of our candidates in this race) when he's been averaging 30% for ten months now, against a huge field of rivals, including two who are considered particularly strong.

[HerbChestnut]

25. It's relevant because the only thing different between Biden's previous campaigns and this one...

Is the fact he was Obama's VP. Biden is the same candidate that ran in 2008 when he couldn't crack 3%. Now all of a sudden he's at 30%? That's a shaky foundation.

[highplainsdem]

26. Well, what you call a "shaky foundation" President Obama thought deserved the Presidential Medal

of Freedom With Distinction, an award he gave only once during his presdiency.

And that was awarded because of what Biden has done and who he is, and not just because he was chosen as a running mate.

Maybe this will refresh your memory:

[HerbChestnut]

27. I remember that. It was a great moment for Joe.

I like Joe as a person, I just don't think he's our strongest candidate. I understand current polling says otherwise, but again, it's still early in the campaign. Nobody votes for another 5 months. Remember in 2007-2008, Hillary was leading by a substantial margin until Obama won Iowa. She even led after that, but Obama eventually won the nomination anyway. There is a long way to go.

[Skya Rhen]

11. Actually, Biden's lead is now 3 points - last week, he had a 1 point lead...

Change from last week

Biden 21........22 (+1)
Warren 20......18 (-2)
Sanders 16.....19 (+3)
Harris 8...........8 (-)

[HerbChestnut]

16. Not sure where you're getting your numbers from.

I'm posting what is reported on RCP where last week Biden was at 23 and Warren was in second with 20 according to YouGov/Economist...

[Skya Rhen]

22. Page 132

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mujbtdyiti/econTabReport.pdf

[HerbChestnut]

24. Fair enough.

Looks like RCP was reporting the registered voter numbers, which fall in line with what's on their website.

[StevieM]

12. This leaves Tulsi Gabbard, along with Tom Steyer, one poll away from getting into the debates.

Steyer seems to be counting on the next morning consult poll that shows how candidates are doing in the early primary states. Gabbard might have a chance at getting in through their national poll. I hope that both get in.

First of all, they are close. It would be unfortunate if they fell just short and were denied access to the debate stage.

Second, if they are in then that means that there will be 12 candidates. And that guarantees that there will be two debates, with 6 candidates in each debate. That will allow for a better debate with more extensive interaction.

[Skya Rhen]

15. Those polls aren't approved by the DNC...

[StevieM]

17. Are you saying that this most recent one doesn't count?

Which polls is the DNC counting?

[Skya Rhen]

20. Unfortunately, no...

https://democrats.org/news/third-debate/

Snip...
Each poll must be sponsored by an approved organization, which presently includes the following: Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Des Moines Register, Fox News, Monmouth University, NBC News, New York Times, National Public Radio (NPR), Quinnipiac University, University of New Hampshire, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Washington Post, and Winthrop University.