Joe Biden Has a Fortress in the South (20+ point lead among black voters)

[highplainsdem]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/9keyq8/joe-biden-has-a-fortress-in-the-south

ATLANTA and COLUMBIA, South Carolina — Sen. Bernie Sanders has working-class cred, Sen. Elizabeth Warren has plans for equal justice, Sen. Cory Booker was raised in an African Methodist Episcopal church, and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro speaks freely about reparations.

But all the 2020 hopefuls are suffering from the same problem when they're courting the black vote: They’re not former Vice President Joe Biden.

Democratic presidential candidates not named Joe Biden are struggling to break through with African-American voters in Georgia and South Carolina, a huge advantage for the current front-runner as he seeks to ultimately secure the party's nomination.

Even as candidates close in on Biden’s lead in other key early primary states, the South has remained a fortress for Biden, largely on the dominance of his appeal to black voters. He consistently holds a roughly 20-point polling lead among African-American voters nationally, and the lead is larger in the critical early-voting state of South Carolina.

-snip-

That built-in advantage was obvious to the five Democrats who broke away from Iowa to campaign in Georgia and South Carolina over the weekend. Even with messages tailored for the black community, candidates have found that a majority of African-American voters have been unwilling so far to give them much of a chance to topple Biden as their No. 1 candidate, largely because, well, he’s the No. 1 candidate.

-snip-

[Recursion]

1. Yup. Nobody can be the Democratic candidate without at least a plurality of African American votes

Candidates forget that at their peril

[B Stieg]

2. It's Warren's biggest weak spot...

as she is FAR behind with black voters in every poll. Has me worried...

[onetexan]

4. Not to worry. She can be Joe's VEEP candidate

[Celerity]

22. the odds are so high that will never happen, they are at complete loggerheads philosophically and

she would turn 80 months after a 2028 win, which is even older than Biden will be if he is sworn in in 2021. The VP slot naturally sets up the person picked to be a major force in the next open election, so we would be more than likely tossing that advantage away.

We already may have an octogenarian for almost 80% of an eight year run in Biden, we are really pushing it to expect one for 95% of their 2 terms after that. The job is simply too demanding to fill it consistently with people who will be in their mid to even late 80's.

If Warren were to win in 2028 and picks a Boomer as a VP, and they won 2 terms as well (or toss in some Boomer Rethugs winning a term here and there), you are looking at a potential 52 (or even 60 straight years, see below) straight year run (technically Biden is the Silent Gen so even older) of that one generation (plus one even older) occupying the most powerful position in the world. That is too long a continuous grip on the ultimate power position for one generation.

IF that above scenario played out, the oldest Gen X'ers would turn EIGHTY by the time they saw a POTUS who was from their gen or from a younger one. Hell, the oldest Millennials would be in their early to mid-60's.

You could, to play it out to its logical extreme, even have a Boomer win in 2044, as all you would need is a candidate (the last-year Boomer Harris is the perfect example age-wise for that) roughly the same age as Warren will be in 2029. At that point the oldest Gen X'ers still alive would be pushing up on 90 years old, before they, in theory, potentially saw a non-Boomer (plus Biden) POTUS (from the 2052 elections), the oldest Millennials would be in their early 70's.

That just (hopefully) is not going to happen, the Boomers simply will have to give way before then. They do not have a possible sixty year (1993 to 2053, with Biden tossed in from an even older gen) birthright to the Presidency. To try and make it so (even the lesser lengths) or to suggest it (I am NOT saying you are doing either of those, btw) to be a viable and/or valid and/or even a desirable thing is to court electoral (and quite possibly at governance levels as well, in the event of a Rethug Boomer well down the road after the Boomer Rump) disaster, IMHO.

[onetexan]

24. Hmm well Beto or Harris will do just fine

[Celerity]

31. I think Biden's VP, if he wins the nomination, will be Stacey Abrams or Deval Patrick

Abrams puts GA, FL, NC completely in play (plus will turbo charge the A-A vote more than anyone else I can think of, short of the pipe-dream of Michelle Obama (who will, unfortunately, probably NEVER run for POTUS or VPOTUS.) Patrick has been an Obama favourite for a potential POTUS for ages and fits well with Biden philosophically, especially on economic issues.

I doubt he goes the two white males route with Beto, who is not going to deliver Texas, (and that reasoning echoes one of the fatal flaws of the 2016 Clinton campaign's overreach, when they focused on AZ and other Red states to 'expand the map' instead of shoring up the Midwest with blanket campaigning.) I also do not see Harris as bringing enough to the electoral table, as CA and the West Coast is a lock with or without her.

Also, her healthcare plan, as muddled as it is, does have a 10 year sunset on private insurance at its core that Biden will have to overcome as Rump and the Rethugs will zero in on that with a laser-like focus. Harris's 'role' for private insurance to continue is only if it basically offers present-day Medicare costs, stipulations, and most importantly, reimbursement rates (which would have a catastrophic effect on hospitals and health care providers.) I do not see the risk-adverse Biden wanting to get into that weed patch. In addition, albeit probably to a lesser extent, there is the animus garnered by her attacks on his bussing and racial record, which has blown up in her face, based off her plummeting poll numbers, although that could, if it is not continued (and certainly not ratcheted up even more), be overcome.

I may be wrong, but those are my best guesses atm.

[aeromanKC]

28. Hopefully Biden will not raid the Senate (MA has an R Gov.)

The Dems need every D in the Senate that they have and will hopefully get in 2020!!

[onetexan]

30. Ah good one i 4got re: MA 's gov is Gop

[Thekaspervote]

6. Yes it is! I really like her, truly wonder why she isn't doing better with AA voters.

[loyalsister]

18. It depends on the sample

Not a single one of my Black friends supports Biden. I'm in MO, so not really on the primary radar at the moment, but party membership is down.
A number of my friends are anti racism activists and academics who do not identify with a party. Warren is very popular in those circles.

[onetexan]

3. So Joe has a Southern Wall - WOOHOO!!

[George II]

5. Bazinga!

[Scurrilous]

9. LOL

Here's your @#$% wall Trump!

[onetexan]

10. Sorry couldn't help the pun

[Scurrilous]

19. ...

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. This is to be expected. We know Joe, and having been Obama's ride or die for 8 years gives him...

a clear advantage the others can't even come close to.

[Bradshaw3]

8. Not quite

Might want to check on this data-based analysis that tells a different story:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287248726

[BannonsLiver]

11. LOL

“Analysis”

[Demsrule86]

12. It is not going to be head to head to head...there will be three at most four candidates...and

no matter how this reporter tries to twist the data...Sen. Warren is not attracting people in AA community. I work with the boots on the ground AA folks... live with among them in Cleveland. People don't understand most are moderates...family oriented,church going .

[Princetonian]

16. Amen.

Demsrule86

12. It is not going to be head to head to head...there will be three at most four candidates...and no matter how this reporter tries to twist the data...Sen. Warren is not attracting people in AA community. I work with the boots on the ground AA folks... live with among them in Cleveland. People don't understand most are moderates...family oriented,church going.

[Demsrule86]

34. You are too kind...thanks!

[Princetonian]

39. I often feel that way when I read your posts.

[emmaverybo]

13. Joe has earned the support. If he fails to maintain credibility with black voters, they will let him

know. But I think, given that the fight for civil rights motivated him to go into politics, and that he has established a strong decades-long record and relationships in AA political circles, his heart is in
it, not just to win it, and he will keep earning the black electorate’s faith in him.

Other candidates have now put together black electorate-centered policies that certainly go to addressing historical injustice and systemic inequality. But gosh, why weren’t these a campaign centerpiece out of the gate?

Out of the gate, Joe called out Trump’s failed leadership on Charlottesville and the sick stain that ugly display, reminding us of the Klan and Nazis, was. Trump had reanimated them.

Black people have been on the fore-front of the “struggle for the soul of America” for centuries. They know Joe is with them.

[Skya Rhen]

14. This part of the article speaks volumes regarding the fall-out from the first debate...

Snip...

Yet California Sen. Kamala Harris’ recent slide in the polls shows the pitfalls of doing that. In addition to suffering from the same stigma of non-electability among black voters as Booker, people said they were turned off by her aggressive attacks on Biden during the first Democratic debates over his record opposing federal intervention in state school busing.

“I thought it was totally inappropriate, because Joe is not the enemy. I mean, his position on busing was not dissimilar to mine,” said Charles Black, a civil rights activist and one of just eight students to attend the only college class Martin Luther King Jr. ever taught.

[Cha]

15. Thank You, POC in the South!

Mahalo, highplains.. Great News!

[Gothmog]

17. K&R

[5starlib]

20. Biden is the ONLY Dem running as Obama's legacy protector

Black people LOVE the Obamas and see Biden as the protector of his legacy. That's why he continues getting such broad AA support. I'm not sure why BS, Warren, Harris, etc., wanna bash Obama's presidency and then turn around expecting AA support.

[LincolnRossiter]

21. That feeds my confidence in his strength. If he can pull off top two finishes in Iowa and NH...

And barnstorm through SC, I don't see how he can be stopped. But we'll see. He does need to sharpen his messaging a bit, but there's still time for that with relatively few voters tuned in.

[Vegas Roller]

23. I just want the non-Democrat/seasonal Democrat to lose

I am okay with Biden, Warren, Harris, Booker, Buttigieg or O'Rourke. Any of them will make a fine POTUS.

[onetexan]

25. Ditto

[NYMinute]

26. BS cannot attract POC

Despite Nina Turner the clown, Killer Mike the stupid and others.

Bye bye BS

[FiveGoodMen]

27. In 2016, we got Trump partly because the weaker Dem candidate prevailed in that region.

[Demsrule86]

35. You aren't a strong candidate if you can't win a primary. Last time this time...you have

to win. Hillary won by millions of votes, it wasn't even close and was a great nominee...she was cheated out of the presidency in the general...with a little help from the Russians, Republicans and of course Stein and her minions...Turner, Sarandon etc. Hillary was a strong nominee. No one else could have done better.

[JI7]

38. nope, Hillary was stronger that's why Russia helped all her opponents

and she would still have won if not for Comey. she still got millions more votes.

[Cha]

40. That's BULL.

[evertonfc]

29. TN

I love Joe but undecided. I prefer Beto, Castro or Bullock. That being said, Joe will win TN easily. My guess is he will win the the South in impressive fashion. I think Joe is simply the safe bet this time. My guess is Joe will pick a woman or minority running mate that WILL NOT come from the current field.

[redstateblues]

32. You mean in the primary don't you?

[evertonfc]

33. primary

Yes. I'm sorry. Tennessee won't go Blue in a general election agian in my lifetime. I'm 47

[crazytown]

36. 'Biden (is) their No. 1 candidate, largely because, well, he's the No. 1 candidate'.

And things can change. In 2007 HRC had the South locked up until ... she was no longer the No. 1 candidate.