"HE'S FLAWED": IS MAYOR PETE'S BEAUTIFUL 2020 DREAM ALREADY KAPUT?

[Autumn]

Black voters, the backbone of the Democratic Party, are skeptical of the police situation in South Bend, and some are put off by his sexuality. But “you can’t poll future state of mind,” says a top Democratic strategist. “If he performs in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s totally viable in South Carolina.”
Pete Buttigieg.
BY MARK PETERSON/REDUX.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/is-mayor-petes-2020-dream-already-kaput?fbclid=IwAR25J2CgPdXMwC7I9Ck5kKMUu-X4bHxWnNX4o_AxGGtLIPr8Sr3moIrR5QI

Talk about your inverted yield curve. Or maybe the better borrowed financial-world term is poor return on investment. Either way: Pete Buttigieg continues to rake in the campaign contributions, with his $32 million raised through June trailing only Bernie Sanders ($46.4 million) and Elizabeth Warren ($35.7 million). Yet Buttigieg’s poll numbers badly lag those two rivals, as well as those of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, with the most credible national surveys showing Mayor Pete drawing support in the middle single digits. And a sizable portion of that depressing math can be traced to one, possibly crippling, weakness.

“The energy for Pete is still strong. He’s still raising a bunch of money. He’s still the intellectual liberal’s candidate right now. And he is the candidate of the Democratic donor class,” says Rufus Gifford, who was a top fund-raiser for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns and who has maxed out his donations to five Democratic contenders, including Buttigieg, this time around. “He can speak to the progressive, as well as the business community, in meaningful ways. So I still think he’s right there in contention. Whether or not he can actually put together a coalition to win—I think that’s still a long shot. If you are polling at zero or low single digits in South Carolina with black voters, you just can’t pull it off, unless there’s somehow a 10-way split. And even then, that’s not a strong position to be in.”

When it comes to attracting black voters, who make up 61% of the Democratic electorate in the crucial early primary state, Buttigieg shares a few hurdles with many of his competitors: Unlike Biden, they haven’t been on the political scene for decades, and they weren’t Obama’s vice president for eight years; unlike Harris and Cory Booker, they’re white. Warren, for all her momentum, is also grappling with a large disparity in racial support. But Buttigieg has an extra difficulty: It appears most South Carolina voters don’t know much about him, and what they do know they don’t seem to like. As mayor of South Bend, Buttigieg bungled the removal of the city’s black police chief just before a local protest of Trayvon Martin’s killing in Florida.

“Mayor Buttigieg might be as close as anyone in this field to having the charisma, the magic, that a presidential candidate needs,” says Cornell Belcher, a pollster on both of Obama’s successful White House runs. “But he’s flawed because of the police situation in South Bend. To a lot of African Americans, it’s damn near disqualifying, because it’s a front and center issue that’s on the minds of a lot of African American voters and Hispanic voters. And if you can’t keep that situation under control in that pissant town, why on earth are we gonna put you in the presidency?”

The article points out that his campaign will soon be hiring a “director of black engagement” to help boost his efforts. It can't hurt.

[genxlib]

1. I think his time will come

He is so young that he has another half dozen election cycles ahead of him. If he has the opportunity to fill some important roles going forward, he can certainly come back around build his stock up. Even eight years from now he will still be among the youngest ever.

My perception is that attitudes about LGBT is changing rapidly. Over the next few years, I think it will become a non-issue. I am just not sure the broader electorate is there yet.

[lambchopp59]

4. Ditto.

Especially once the self-righteous RWNJ's come around to shame for trudging bigotry out of the gutter, come to a reconciliation that hateful malediction only serves to sever families, build walls (!), mistrust, riots, homelessness and despair by birthright.


Evoluciona ya, imbéciles.

[Skittles]

16. they look stupid now

[Bettie]

11. I agree with everything you said

I don't think this cycle is his time, but it will come.

Then again, anything can happen at this point. We'll see where everyone is once votes are cast.

[Raine]

17. I think so too, I really like him but

I just think he's too inexperienced. I think in a few years he'll be a real rising star and can go for Senate and or President and win.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

2. Oh no! Not TEH CAPS!1!

[progressoid]

5. STOP SHOUTING AT US VANITY FAIR !!11!

I'm still recovering from the Comic Sans wars of the early 2000's.

[DemocracyMouse]

3. I'm not sure Mayor Pete has the full support yet of the reality-leaning public (the Democrats)...

... but his campaign – like that of Jesse Jackson in the 1980s, Obama and Hillary – opens many doors for the LGBTQ community that follows. He's a brilliant and compassionate trailblazer.

And, yes, why the heck couldn't he manage the friggin' police back home? Maybe he can make that weakness his strongpoint going forward with a full on new narrative:

– The police are here to protect citizens, not treat every last one of us like suspects.
– The big, bad, bold profile of police needs to be reformulated to POLITE protectors of the peace.
– No TEXT markings on police cars larger than 6 inches. No italics.
– REDUCE THE (annoying and fascist) BLINKING LIGHTS TO 25% of their current blinding, accident-causing intensity.

[oldsoftie]

6. OMG bright police lights are "fascist"? Where the hell has common sense gone.

They're bright to tell you to MOVE THE HELL OVER.
No italic writing? Who gives a shit about italics? So make the lettering small enough so no one knows the cops are even THERE?
Lord help you if you need an ambulance; they've got really bright lights, big letters and sirens!

[Devil Child]

8. +1000 oldsoftie

Reading that made me groan aloud.

I live in a high-crime area, I'll take the bright lights and "non-polite" font size on the cruisers.

[DemocracyMouse]

9. Many others share my conviction that the police culture must change

Major candidates are addressing police brutality (finally) and included with the culture changes we would like to see is the police MODELING civility, and the apparatus of the police signaling civikity not aggression. WE ARE SICK AND TIRED of, yes, fascist-leaning police (not all, but many) trampling all over civility, shooting unarmed children in the back, arresting African Americans for not using a turn signal, etc.

The aggressive looking cop cars are part, but certainly not the entire messaging problem. And, sadly, those safety strobes may be causing more accidents than they prevent. It's a matter of degree. Just because we have a technology (like machine guns, nuclear weapons, GMOs, etc., doesn't mean a no-holds-barred usage.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2107016/Strobe-sirens-new-police-cars-blinding-motorists-causing-accidents-claims-inspector.html

[rogue emissary]

7. That's he gone this long without

A director of black engagement. That is the exact reason he routinely gets zero percent with African Americans.

[TomSlick]

10. If Mayor Buttigieg cannot get the enthusiastic support of African-Americans,

we can't afford him as the candidate. We cannot have people staying home on election day because they are not enthusiastic.

Mayor Bettigieg is probably the smartest person in the race but between his problems back home with the police force and the queasiness of the older church set because he is gay, he will have to move mountains to have the support he needs from African Americans. I don't like it but the main thing we need is someone who will turn-out ever Democrat to vote.

I hope Mayor Buttigieg is smart enough to move that mountain.

[JI7]

12. the same can be said about Sanders and Warren

[crazytown]

15. African-Americans are enthusiastic about voting out trump

that is the starting point.

[tishaLA]

13. So, just to be clear, he's flush with money

knows he has issues with African American voters, hasn't bothered to hire someone who will be able to help him with that yet, but will ""soon." And this is the same person who's the mayor of a small hamlet in a rural state who oversees a police department that has gotten less diverse during his tenure.

Not really a great pattern. He can have as many Douglass Plans as he wants, but they are ultimately only nice words on pages and opportunities to appear on Morning Joe if he can't be bothered to hire someone to facilitate outreach.

[Celerity]

14. The June 16th Eric Logan shooting death in South Bend was the inflection point that will end up

probably stopping him this go-round.

His position as a mayor of a mid-size town (and to further complicate it, SB has a strong mayor system, so he has all responsibility) is the perfect storm for trouble.

South Bend is not big enough (like NYC, LA etc) where there are so many crazy things going on that the mayor is not going to be zeroed in on with a laser over every single incident. It also is big enough that there are bad events, bad events simy are going to happen, regardless of who is the mayor.

He owns it all, unlike a House member, a Senator, even (to a point) a Governor (although a Governor can deffo catch blowback from events as well, but the bad events will be truly huge huge ones to have the same proportional level of negative feedback.) Conversely, South Bend is also too big and diverse to be the type of small city or posh suburb were bad things happen so so rarely.



Pete was surging in South Carolina, and even starting to gain traction with black voters there (he was at 6% and trending up a lot, he was at zero the poll right before this one.)

Here was the last legit poll there 2 days before the shooting. Remember this is South Carolina, by far his weakest state.

The next poll, he dropped back down there to 2% with black voters after weeks of bad press over the shooting (which lead to a rehash of the 2011 Boykins demotion and scuppered him in SC.)


https://www.changeresearch.com/south-carolina-poll-june-11-14-2019

Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg Lead the Democratic Primary in South Carolina

The Post and Courier/Change Research South Carolina Poll:

June 11-14, 2019

Key Takeaways: ​

Biden (37%), Warren (17%), and Buttigieg (11%) lead the Democratic primary in South Carolina

Biden leads in all age groups except for 18- to 34-year old voters

Biden has a strong lead among black voters, but the race is closer among white voters

Change Research surveyed 2,312 registered voters in South Carolina on over 50 questions related to the Democratic horse race, 2020 general elections, the Trump administration agenda, and more. The poll produced thousands of data points powering actionable insights for campaigns and organizations following South Carolina.