Why Julian Castro Could Be 2020's Dark Horse Candidate

[mtnsnake]

Last edited Sat Aug 24, 2019, 12:12 PM - Edit history (1)

"For Castro … the ideal scenario is that he is a viable candidate when the primaries start in February, so he can galvanize Latinos behind him in three key states in particular: California, Nevada and Texas. Nevada (where about 20 percent of Democratic primary voters are likely to be Latino) is currently scheduled to be the third state to vote. California and Texas, the two states with the largest Latino populations, hold their primaries along with several other states on Super Tuesday, on March 3, but both states allow early voting, so lots of voters in both states will cast ballots in February.

So he’s in a bit of a trap: He can’t mobilize Latino voters behind him unless he demonstrates viability, and he won’t look viable without strong Latino support. He has plenty of time to make a strong impression in debates and retail campaigning. And like those Democratic rivals who are boasting of their electability as ambassadors to Trump voters in the Heartland, Castro has his own electability argument, as Bacon notes:

When I asked Castro how he would present himself as “electable” to Democratic voters, he named six states that he felt he could flip: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which Clinton barely lost in 2016, along with Arizona, Florida and Texas. Castro didn’t outright say this, but the implication was obvious: Arizona, Florida and Texas are the three states with the largest Latino electorates that did not vote for Democrats in 2016.

It’s not entirely clear how Julián Castro makes himself the Barack Obama of Latino Democrats, but until he fails, it would be foolish to count him out."
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/julian-castro-could-be-2020s-dark-horse-candidate.html

The article is from April, but considering how well Castro has done in the debates, the fact that he has already qualified for the September debate, and how quickly his candidacy has been taken more seriously, the sentiment from the article holds truer today than it did when it was written several months ago.

[katmondoo]

1. No, he doesn't have the fire. Ilike him but do not think he will overtake Elizabeth Warren

[NYMinute]

2. It is J-U-L-I-A-N

I have seen you posting his name as J-U-L-I-N a few times.

(and it is pronounced Who-Lee-Ahn )

[mtnsnake]

3. Thanks for catching that, but it was actually DU's software that caused that ommision

When I copy/pasted the title of the article "Why Julián Castro Could Be 2020’s Dark Horse Candidate" into the thread title, it copied as it should, but when it was launched, it left out the "a" with the accent above it. I guess the software won't allow for letters with accents above them. If you post Julian with the accent above the "a" in a new thread title and then click on preview, you'll see that it leaves out the "a" in his name. I'm glad you mentioned it, and of course I know how to pronounce his name. I've been reading up on him and admiring him for a number of years. BTW, I don't think I've been posting it as "Julin" a few other times, but if I have, feel free to let me know those instances. Anyway, thanks, I edited the thread title to include the "a" that the software left out when it wouldn't take the letter originally because of the accent above it.

[NYMinute]

6. Yes -- the Subject line EATS accented characters

I have experienced that before as well.

[elocs]

4. Yeah, "Vote for Castro", how could that go wrong? n/t

[pinkstarburst]

5. I think Castro is a smart guy

But I'm not sure I see him emerging as a front-runner because he only polls 2% even in his home state of Texas and while he comes across as whip-smart in the debates (great one-liners and comebacks) I can't tell you what one of his policies is on anything except that he wants to decriminalize border crossings.

Health care plan? Climate plan? Next to someone like Warren who can clearly spell out how she plans to fix EVERYTHING... I think Castro falls into the category of some of the others--a really smart guy who maybe could serve best by running for Senate or serving in other positions for a few years and gaining more experience.

[mtnsnake]

9. Here you go. He has specific plans on everything you are wondering about...

all laid out in clear cut plans:
https://issues.juliancastro.com/

[brooklynite]

7. This is from April. In the subsequent 4 months, he hasn't become one

[mtnsnake]

8. Apparently you missed the part in my post where I said this article was from April

and it's only your opinion that he hasn't become a dark horse candidate. FYI, in the last 4 months he has done very well to promote himself, according to many of the pundits who are quick to point out how well he has done in the debates and elsewhere so far.

[brooklynite]

10. No it's not "only" my opinion...

It's my "informed" opinion, based on 40 years of experience in politics and my direct engagement with the DNC and its candidates, INCLUDING talking to Castro directly.

Let me direct you to a polling model by THE ECONOMIST which analyses each candidate over the entirety of the Primary period. Castro has been fairly flat at 1-2 % since April. That's barely enough to get into the third debate, but there was no bounce coming out of the first or second, unlike Harris, and no bounce from his earlier Town Hall. Eventually, he's going to fall out when the eligibility rules get further tightened.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/candidate/julian-castro/

[mtnsnake]

11. Oh geez, I should have said your "informed" opinion.

Nice to know we have your expertise around here to keep the rest of us educated about politics.

Next time read my post and not just the headline before "informing" me that the article is from April when it was already clearly stated in the post that the article was from April.

[brooklynite]

12. I'm delighted to provide as much info about my meeting later with Parry people as I'm able to...

Doesn’t change the fact that Castro has shown no forward momentum. However we’ll his Debate performance played with the punditry, it hasn’t changed his support among voters. Consider that, it’s not enough to become more popular; he has to get to 15% or he won’t get any delegates.

[madville]

13. So identity politics is his only hope?

That's pretty much a hail mary at this point

[JI7]

14. he doesn't really do well . even after all the hype over his first debate he was polling low

and Beto is far more popular in Texas and among hispanics than Castro is.