***UH OH PAPA JOE*** A + rated Monmouth Poll EW 20% BS 20% JB 19%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Sanders and Warren rise; Biden drops

West Long Branch, NJ – Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and former Vice President Joe Biden are currently bunched together in the national Democratic presidential preference contest. Movement in the latest Monmouth University Poll – positive for Warren and Sanders, negative for Biden – suggests the 2020 presidential nomination process may be entering a volatile stage. The poll results also suggest that liberal voters are starting to take a closer look at a wider range of candidates, while moderates are focusing on those with the highest name recognition. Another key finding that could contribute to growing volatility in the race is confusion over “Medicare for All.” Most say support for this policy is an important factor in choosing a Democratic nominee, but voters actually prefer a public option over a single payer plan.

The poll finds a virtual three-way tie among Sanders (20%), Warren (20%), and Biden (19%) in the presidential nomination preferences of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters across the country. Compared to Monmouth’s June poll, these results represent an increase in support for both Sanders (up from 14%) and Warren (up from 15%), and a significant drop for Biden (down from 32%).

Results for the rest of the field are fairly stable compared to two months ago. These candidates include California Sen. Kamala Harris at 8% support (identical to 8% in June), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 4% (2% in June), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4% (5% in June), entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 3% (2% in June), former cabinet secretary Julián Castro at 2% (<1% in June), former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 2% (3% in June), and author Marianne Williamson at 2% (1% in June). Support for the remaining 13 candidates included in the preference poll registered only 1% or less.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_082619/

[LincolnRossiter]

1. FYI there are two threads on this on the first page already...

And yeah I'm being salty.

[hlthe2b]

2. With a standard error of 5.7 points.... you are overreading the importance

[bluewater]

3. Binden DROPPED -13 %, way outside the margin of error.

His support was almost cut in half!

Was 32% in June, plummeted to 19% today.

WOAH.

[hlthe2b]

7. that wasn't the point of the OP's bluster. Yes, the primary race is tightening as would be expected

I'd be happy with any of the leading tier, but to suggest Biden is out of it is ludicrous.

[treestar]

24. Not sure it is credible that his support would actually

go down that much this week. He didn't kill anybody.

[LincolnRossiter]

6. It could be an outlier, but don't go this route. Joe was up +18 and +17 in Monmouth's last two polls

Irrespective of the actual numbers, it's a significant decline (for this poll).

[hlthe2b]

28. It very clearly WAS an outlier. (now don't you feel silly, DEMANDING that I "not take this route?")

*** Another poll with Joe on the go*** A-rated Quinnipiac poll JB 32% EW19% BS 15%
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287256975
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638


RCP Averages - Today, after latest Quinnipiac poll
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287257008



USA TODAY/Suffolk JB 32 (+2) EW 14 (+4) BS 12 (-3), Steyer and Gabbard less than 1% each
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287256882
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/08/28/2020-biden-leads-democrats-voters-dread-election/2120726001/



LIKELY VOTER Harris X Aug.23-26: Biden 36%, Sanders 14%, Warren 14%, Harris 6%, Buttigieg 5%
FiveThirtyEight added this LV poll result today

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

after posting the RV, registered voter, results of the poll yesterday, which had Biden at 31%:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287255855

[LincolnRossiter]

32. It was an outlier. At the time I wrote "could be" there weren't a body of more recent polls

conclusively showing it to be. My point was that there’s a tendency to summarily dismiss polls that we don’t like instead of just taking them at face value, rolling them into the greater data set, and seeing what all the information taken together tells us. Because even an outlier can, for instance, highlight a trend. Or it can be perfectly useless and, like this one, will simply be overwhelmed by the preponderance of contravening data.


And no. I don’t “feel silly,“ but you probably should for trying to spring this half-assed “I told you so” on someone who said it “could be an outlier” and concluded as much the moment I saw the morning consult and Emerson polls.

Grow up and have a nice morning.

[hlthe2b]

33. Your rude demand that I "not take that route" as though I was ignoring established fact rather than

pointing out the statistical weaknesses, says it all and counters any claim you make NOW that you thought it could be an outlier.

[LincolnRossiter]

34. "not take that route" is a rude demand?

What are you 12?

[Skya Rhen]

4. This poll was conducted around the same time as the CNN poll which has Joe with a 14 point lead.

The Director of Monmouth Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, admitted on CNN that his poll can be an outlier.

[Celerity]

5. Game on

[Joe941]

8. Bernie is not the front runner!

[Iliyah]

9. This is off 298 people?

Oh rightly then . . .

[Princetonian]

22. Yes, with an over-representation of Under 50 with huge MOE. Nate Silver said it was an outlier.

Whatever they were smoking must have been very good.

Or someone with a campaign asked a friend at Monmouth to arrange for this specific screen.

[gristy]

10. dupe

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254803

[zackymilly]

11. More like about 5 threads.

[BlueMTexpat]

12. While it's interesting to see

this, I put NO stock in any polls this early, except to note that my candidate is steadily trending upward.

That is a trend I like!

May it continue!

[bluewater]

15. Well said!

[stonecutter357]

13. good let's go Joe !

[Lordquinton]

16. Weird to see his supporters cheering a significant drop in the polls

but go ahead if you're into it.

[stonecutter357]

25. lol it's not a significant drop in the polls .....

[Maven]

14. The more people get to know Sen. Warren, the more they trust her to bring this election home

and to bring fairness and respectability back to our country.

[Green Line]

17. Jeffrey Toobin on CNN

Just called this a rinky dink poll. 268 people?
This is an outlier.

[Princetonian]

19. The new HarrisX poll has over 1300 and is very detailed with a balanced demographic showing

Biden at 31% there. Not an outlier, along the lines of the recent CNN poll taken at the same time as Monmouth with very different results.

Unlike Monmouth that was overrepsented by under 50.

Someone played around with the screen. Does Sirota have a buddy at Monmouth?

[oasis]

30. Outlier well into the stratosphere. nt

[Princetonian]

18. Nate Silver says this is an outlier: very small sample overrepresented by under 50 w/5.7% MOE

Carry on.

[melman]

20. Yes but Nate Silver is a clown

Just something to take into consideration.

[Princetonian]

23. Hmm... this poll had a tiny sample and was overrepresented by Under 50 w/an 5.7% MOE

Plus, CNN experts said the same thing. The new HarrisX poll has more than five times the respondents and has a detailed balanced demographic spread. Joe is at 31% there which is in line with every poll for the last 10 months.

Of course, polls are meaningless now but they do provide some fun.

[Green Line]

26. MSNBC is clutching their pearls

All breathless that Joe is no longer the front runner, I stopped watching them for a while then went back, guess it’s time to stop for good.

[Princetonian]

27. Sad to see they are doing that. I stopped watching awhile ago and do not miss them.

Last edited Mon Aug 26, 2019, 08:41 PM - Edit history (1)

RCP poll averages as of now: Joe 27.2%, Bernie 16.7%, Liz 16.2%, Harris 7.5%

[Gothmog]

21. From Nate Silver re recent Monmouth poll

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

29. And it was an outlier based on today's numbers!

[Gothmog]

31. Yep

Link to tweet