HUGE 13 POINT DROP FOR BIDEN IN 'A' RATED POLL

[Hassin Bin Sober]

Ruh Ro

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/08/26/politics/monmouth-august-democrats-biden-warren-sanders/index.html

Monmouth poll: Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren in three-way lead for Democratic bid

[George II]

2. I think many are taking delight in this outlier.

[FBaggins]

4. I'd assume an outlier as well - absent multiple confirming polls

However - The Economist/YouGov results over roughly the same period are virtually identical.

[bluewater]

5. Monmouth University is an A+ rated LIVE poll

The polls are what the polls are.



It will be interesting to see what the polls do over the next few months.

The online tracking polls that survey the same poll of people over and over probably won't change much yet (like Morning Consult and HarrisX, for example), but it will be very interesting to see what the highly rate LIVE polls show.

[George II]

35. The pollster is A+ rated, not this particular poll.

[hlthe2b]

3. I agree. Two is likely oversight, three might still be failure to check. More than that is

inciting, whether intentional or not. And, I say that no matter WHICH candidate is the subject.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. Could be an outlier, but weve know for a while Joes support is pretty soft.

So it might be only a matter of time before polls start showing him losing support. These results would be indicative of the many recent gaffes hes made on the campaign trail.

[trueblue2007]

10. no one cares about joe's "gaffes"

i don't care do you?

[Tiggeroshii]

16. I kinda care.

It would be nice for him to know what state he's in, what decade rfk and mlk were assassinated, and not bringing up "if Obama was assassinated." Yes, that bothers me.

[babylonsister]

37. I care, too. nt

[progressoid]

17. Biden Advisers Worry the Gaffes Are Becoming a Problem

Biden campaign insiders say the longtime politician is as physically and mentally fit as ever, but they also worry that the accumulation of gaffes is solidifying into a media narrative. The New York Times reports:

While his advisers dismissed the individual remarks as minor miscues that Mr. Biden mostly amended quickly, the slipups have become part of a pattern—a strong campaign trail moment, followed by a blunder that dominates the news coverage—that has been enormously frustrating to them and, some Democratic allies say, to Mr. Biden himself.

Some of his advisers said in interviews that they were privately nervous that his recent gaffe spree would become cemented into the larger narrative of the presidential race. They also say that Mr. Biden faces an unfair double standard.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/joe-biden-gaffes-2020

[Ace Rothstein]

23. I do.

It will cost us the general if he keeps up with the gaffes.

[TheCowsCameHome]

32. I care about them

They are not a good thing for any candidate.

[guillaumeb]

7. This shows me that at this point,

Democratic voters have 3 candidates in the top tier.

[gristy]

8. dupe

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254803

[hedda_foil]

9. Probably an outlier. It has a 5.7% MOE.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Edit that link! You don't need to tell Google everybody who is reading a CNN article! . . . nt

[stonecutter357]

12. good let's go Joe !

[oldsoftie]

13. Nobody drops 13 points in a poll unless theyve been arrested. Jeeze.

[progressoid]

18. Since Monmouth's June poll...Biden has lost significant support (down 13 points).

Since Monmouth's June poll, Sanders and Warren have gained slightly (up 6 and 5 percentage points), while Biden has lost significant support (down 13 points).

[oldsoftie]

28. All but 1 of the other major polls still show Biden with doubledigit leads over the other two.

Real Clear Politics is the site to watch.

[treestar]

39. +1

Absurd.

[colsohlibgal]

14. Looks Like It Is Those 3 At The Top

Like Biden Love Bernie but sincerely believe they are too old, both at an age where mental processes....well can cause problems. Right now it seems more of an issue with Biden.

Warren is about half a generation younger and not as close to the danger zone.

Harris, Klobuchar, Mayor Pete, they seem to not be finding enough traction.

Still a long way to go though. Whoever it is we must be willing to crawl over glass to vote, we must kick Orange Hitler to the curb.l

[Funtatlaguy]

22. Bernie 77, Joe 76, Elizabeth 70.

[Green Line]

25. Warren is 70

[oldsoftie]

29. Since when is 7 yrs "half a generation"?

[treestar]

40. Then you do not believe Warren should have a second term

As she would be Joe's age in the middle of it.

[Maven]

15. Sen. Warren is the one. nt

[Princetonian]

19. AA voters support VP Joe Biden overwhelmingly not Warren or Sanders.

Wait until the states are no longer 97% white.

Wait until SC.

[bluewater]

20. This was a national poll.

[Princetonian]

21. Just stating the facts.

[bluewater]

24. Same here.

[Princetonian]

27. CNN's Harry Enten's analysis of the new Monmouth Poll

If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..

Snip...

When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters. Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.

Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.

The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.

You'll note that in all of these other polls, Biden's doing at least 10 points better than he was doing in the Monmouth poll. It seems unlikely to me that Biden lost so much ground within the two-day period of CNN ending its own poll.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254977

to Skya Rhen

[questionseverything]

30. remind me when the last time sc went blue in a general election?

Biden has suffered an across the board decline in his support since June. He lost ground with white Democrats (from 32% to 18%) and voters of color (from 33% to 19%), among voters without a college degree (from 35% to 18%) and college graduates (from 28% to 20%), with both men (from 38% to 24%) and women (from 29% to 16%), and among voters under 50 years old (from 21% to 6%) as well as voters aged 50 and over (from 42% to 33%). Most of Biden’s lost support in these groups shifted almost equally toward Sanders and Warren.

[Princetonian]

31. Primary season awaits. Monmouth is an outlier with a 5.7% MOE. Enjoy.

RCP poll averages: Joe 27.3%, Bernie 16.7%, Liz 16.2%

I'll take it.

[NYMinute]

26. ...

[brooklynite]

33. Outlier poll with a high margin of error

[bluewater]

34. It's not THAT different than the Economist/YouGov polls

YouGov is one of the 3 online tracking polls often cited here on DU, along with MorningConsult and Harris.

This latest A+ Rated Monmouth University poll isn't that different from the YouGov polls that consistently have Biden with a smaller lead.

For example, here is the 8/21 pollresults:

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Economist/YouGov
Biden 22, Sanders 19, Warren 18, Harris 8, Buttigieg 8, O'Rourke 3, Booker 2, Yang 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 2, Klobuchar 0, Williamson 0, Steyer 0

Older YouGov polls also show Biden just in the mid 20s percent support range with a 5-6 point lead.

So, IS the Monmouth poll really an outlier? Time will tell.

But I guarantee that when the MorningConsult poll comes out tomorrow showing Biden at ~30%, many people will claim THAT poll is absolutely 100% correct.

Again, time will tell.

[Lordquinton]

36. That's a significant drop

compared to his slow decline as the race has been wearing on.

[Gothmog]

38. From Nate Silver re recent Monmouth poll

Link to tweet

Link to tweet