Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumCNN's Harry Enten's analysis of the new Monmouth Poll
Snip...
If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..
Snip...
When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters. Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.
The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.
You'll note that in all of these other polls, Biden's doing at least 10 points better than he was doing in the Monmouth poll. It seems unlikely to me that Biden lost so much ground within the two-day period of CNN ending its own poll.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/monmouth-poll-analysis/index.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)LOL
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)Thx for posting Skya Rhen!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)Good news. Nate Silver is a big fan of Monmouth..
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)I just prefer to listen to the experts. Im sure Harry Enten didnt have to talk his take on things over with Nate Silver b4 putting his statement out there
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....and Enten is one of the best.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(144,842 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
So he changed his mind on Monmouth now that he doesn't like their results?
I AM SO SHOCKED.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(144,842 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)Why would anyone think that hes playing favorites? if he were to skew the numbers to suit himself or his views, 538 would die the death of a million cuts.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)Maybe from reading the bullshit he posts on twitter?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(296,679 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)Monmouth poll published today is meaningless and flawed to the core.
I wonder if David Sirota paid some buddy to do a sub-sample and publish the results. That is something that Lee Atwater, Karl Rove and Roger Stone did routinely.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)Has Monmouth published their sampling methodology yet?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dgauss
(881 posts)No doubt in cahoots with David Sirota. The only question is, what role did Jill Stein play in all this?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
questionseverything
(9,644 posts)but is she headquartered in Vermont or new Hampshire?
nm..states are interchangeable now
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)538 says to average results from different pollsters to minimize the effects of any systematic errors they have.
Monmouth University Poll is an A+ rated poll with an 80% accuracy according to 538, so it can't be ignored or dismissed.
Over the next few months we will see how the polls change. I don't expect the online tracking polls that survey the same pool of voters over and over (Like MorningConsult and HarrisX, for example) to show much change yet, but it will be interesting to see how the highly rated LIVE polls go.
On April 25th, when he announced, Biden was at 29.3% AVERAGE support.
Today, Biden is at 27.2% AVERAGE support.
Anyone can see the rise and fall of Biden's support at the RCP Polls Tracker here:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Princetonian (Reply #5)
Post removed
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Biden's AVERAGE poll support is now lover than when he announced on April 25th.
The polls are what the polls are.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,278 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Hey, but the polling average is what the polling average is.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)I'll take it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)That is not based on any single poll.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)I'll take it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Everyone can see the actual trend for themselves here:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Biden LOSING support over the last 4 months is why many people consider him a fragile front runner.
It will be interesting to see what the polls do over the next few months.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)Did you read what Harry Enten from 538 said about the Monmouth poll today? If you did then you know mr. Bidens numbers remain pretty much the same. No big shift
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)Biden 29.3, 27.2 -2.1
Sanders 23.0, 16.7 -6.3
Warren 6.5, 16.2 +9.4
Harris 8.3, 7.5 -0.8
Why no reports of Sanders "plunging"? He's down 3X Biden's drop, yet Biden in "plunging"!
Essentially Sanders and Warren have been trading support, Biden and Harris have been stable.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
questionseverything
(9,644 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)I'll take it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)Hi Princetonian
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)By the way, the 2.1% drop referred to the weekly variation probably due to the Monmouth poll which Nate Silver said was an outlier because its sample size was so small (238). Another poster noticed Monmouth has overrepresented Under 50 voters. The MOE was 5.7% which is huge.
Polls don't mean much now but are a source of fun now.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,047 posts)be in serious trouble with Warren over the long term trend (much of the Sanders support that said they would go to Biden was pure name recognition for both Biden and Sanders.) He still maybe in trouble IF she starts to make inroads with A-A's and older voters and the other candidates' supporters break to her.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254977#post57
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,047 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)I expected things to tighten even further. No worries.
Polls are fun but meaningless at this point. December is when they will matter.
Warren needs AA voters not a polling popularity contest. She has little support there. Ditto with Bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,047 posts)her. Bernie has the 2nd highest A-A support levels overall when the totality of the polls is measured, only tailing Biden on a cumulative average. Harris was biting into both Biden and Bernie, but has fallen back fairly across the board, and I expect Warren to make inroads in that vector and also amongst older voters if she actually is started to be seen by those groups as more viable for the general than she is at the present.
Like you said, it is still relatively early in the cycle. I am not swayed by just one poll, so do not think I am anywhere near calling the race even yet. Biden is still the clear front runner, but cracks are being slowly exposed. Biden is polling in that Monmouth poll at 6% with voters under 50, and in even Biden-friendly polls, he still lags badly in that group.
3 recent polls:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_082619/
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u4gcv1suy6/econTabReport.pdf
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-8-15
I find it amazing that the number one target for negative posts by Biden supporter is Sanders. Without him in the race, Warren would more than likely at least on a glide-path to possibly overtaking Biden ATM. IF she starts to clearly pull ahead of Sanders by a fairly wide margin and sustains it for months, and he loses badly in Iowa and NH, etc, and yet still refuses to drop out and endorse her, the Biden folks owe him a lifetime supply of whatever Bernie's favourite food is, as he will be the blocker of her path at that point. On the flip side, I see no plan B for the centrist to centre-left liberal route at all, which truly worries me, as IF (a big if granted) Biden himself goes wobbly that leaves us (our Party) sitting with its 2 main candidates being drawn from the far left, which is asking for electoral trouble IMHO. I do not like 'all your eggs in one basket' type of thinking.
I want to wait to see the next several weeks polls en toto before I can be more comfortable in judging the extent to which this Monmouth poll was either (A) an outlier or (B) more reflective of an actual significant change in the dynamics. Anyone who is claiming to definitively label it, now, with certainty, either way is simply projecting their own wishes onto it IMHO.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,047 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,047 posts)the time period of then until now. That was the sole purpose of my post to them.
Now that you bring up your points and thoughts, here is my reply to you specifically:
Recent numbers over a short 1 week or so snapshot show far less than long term trends. Try to play arbitrage spreads in FOREX based off week-over-week-only interval interval analysis. You will soon be bankrupted. Use leverage and you may go into margin-call/liquidation territory in a few hours, even if your overall sense of direction for the spreads was correct.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BootinUp
(47,046 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DrFunkenstein
(8,745 posts)I haven't seen crowds so worked up in all my time. Any suggestion that Biden had hit his ceiling after riding on Obama's coattails is completely fanciful. The other campaigns are in full meltdown as their numbers slowly dwindle away.
It's safe to say this race was OVER before it began.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Watchfoxheadexplodes
(3,496 posts)The frontrunner
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,055 posts)states determine the president l
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)It does really give a much better picture
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,055 posts)Last edited Mon Aug 26, 2019, 05:06 PM - Edit history (1)
other candidates. I am not referring to discussing differences on issues, but creating posts to belittle and bully
They play this like it is some kind of a game, and they do a disservice to the candidate they support
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)I too go out of my way to not snipe at other candidates, because as you said it is a great disservice, not only to the said candidate but to the Dems as a whole.
I havent seen such road rage since I had to drive Illinois I-55 to work daily!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,055 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)Iowa, Biden 26.0, Warren 18.0 - Biden gets 59% of the delegates, Warren gets 41%, the others zero
New Hampshire, Biden 21.0, Sanders 19.3 - Biden gets 52% of the delegates, Sanders gets 48%, the others zero
Nevada, Biden 30.0, Warren 15.3, Sanders 15.3 - Biden gets 50% of the delegates, Warren gets 25%, Sanders gets 25%
South Carolina, Biden 38.0, Sanders 14.3, Warren 12.7, Harris 12.0 - Biden gets 100% of the delegates, the others zero
All of this negating minor differences due to variations in some districts.
Simple math (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina):
Biden - 24 + 12 + 26 + 54 = 116
Warren - 17 + 0 + 14 + 0 = 31
Sanders - 0 + 12 + 14 + 0 = 26
Harris - 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 0
Biden comes out of the first four states with 67% of the delegates, Warren with 18%, Sanders with 15% and Harris with 0%.
Could be all but over even going into Super Tuesday, where Biden will clean up!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,055 posts)before the last primary is held, the earliest it would be is after Super Tuesday
but we will know in a little more than six months
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(296,679 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DallasNE
(7,402 posts)More taking the eye off the ball and playing right into Trump's hand.
In last weeks news we learned that the government has adjusted down by 501,000 the number of jobs created in 2018 AND the CBO adjusted up their estimate on the size of the budget deficit over the next 10 years by $800 billion.
If that wasn't bad enough the State Department issued a report saying ISIS is having a strong comeback in Syria and Iraq and they are getting established in Afghanistan, exactly what the experts predicted would happen.
And this doesn't even touch on the clown show in France where Trump once again made a complete fool of himself while Melania swooned over Canadian PM Trudeau.
These items are just within the past week.
So why does the poll of the day get the only billing? The distractions are driving the hard news off the air waves and that needs to stop.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DrFunkenstein
(8,745 posts)And it is more fun to think about a time when Trump is no longer protected from criminal prosecution.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,055 posts)competition
Until the candidate field narrows down, along with other reasons, I don't think the polls mean very much at this stage. Especially the national polls
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stonecutter357
(12,693 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)I volunteered over the weekend, and will continue to help whenever I can. We have to outwork them and not look at any polls. Run like we are losing all the time. I love Joe, he is my choice. I still feel strongly he can beat the orange wonder. I will support the nominee, hoping it is not the two I dislike, but I will hold my nose and vote to keep this evil being out of the white house again.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(296,679 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(296,679 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
karynnj
(59,492 posts)An estimate of the results for the three dates polled by both - the 16th and 17th and 18th - would be estimates for the same unknown actual. It is that "actual" that is said to be within the confidence interval (usually) 95% of the time. Clearly the CNN estimate could be on the high end and the Monmouth one on the low end for the sum of the three days. To my knowledge neither pollster has talked of the difference between the results on different days. (Remember polls where something big really happened and they show major differences in the two segments of the poll.)
It would be very difficult to shift a 4 day estimate and a 5 day estimate as much as the difference of these two polls by assuming the 15th was higher for Biden and the 19th and 20th lower.
At this point, unless more polls show this shift, the likelihood is that the Monmouth poll is an outlier.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skya Rhen
(2,701 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Skya Rhen (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
doxyluv13
(247 posts)This is a rationalization, not anything like a valid statistical analysis. The difference of a couple days can make a big difference, especially when the candidate is regularly doing things that seem doddering or out of touch. I could see Biden's numbers going up it he did something to put his gaffs behind him, or to recognize them as such. But he hasn't. The Monmouth poll could be an outlier, but CNN's poll showing Biden's lead increasing when there has only been bad news for him is more likely to proven wrong.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(296,679 posts)Maybe people are making up their own minds about Joe Biden and have a Much Different Opinion of him than you do.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,441 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
5starlib
(191 posts)I'd be really curious about that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skya Rhen
(2,701 posts)Seems questionable...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Vegas Roller
(704 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,875 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,875 posts)Thread starting with this tweet:
Link to tweet
Guys, just chuck it into the recycling bin. it's useless. <300 people to represent a national electorate?
this survey *theoretically* has a plus or minus 5.7% margin of error. but that's just not how actual modern political polling works. With declining response rates, you need more sample to hit quotas on various demographic categories. you just can't do that with n=298
which is to say nothing of the fact that "identifying as democrats or leaning towards the democratic party" doesn't make you a primary voter
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,242 posts)do not show any such drop for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(296,679 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden