CNN Forecaster Craps All Over Poll Showing Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Leading Biden

[highplainsdem]

From Mediaite, with video at the link:


https://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnn-forecaster-craps-all-over-poll-showing-bernie-sanders-and-elizabeth-warren-leading-biden/

On Tuesday morning’s edition of CNN’s New Day, hosts Alisyn Camerota and John Berman asked an overly-caffeinated Enten to analyze a recent Monmouth University poll that showed Warren and Sanders at 20 percent nationally, one point ahead of Biden at 19 percent.

“What does it mean? What does it mean?” Enten said, noting correctly that “This poll seems to be getting so much press.”

-snip-

Pointing to a graphic comparing the four polls, Enten said “CNN poll, which was done at the same time as this Monmouth poll, people, same freaking time! Twenty-nine percent for Biden, Fox News taken only about a week before, 31 percent for Biden, Quinnipiac University, done earlier this month, 32.”

“And then you have 19 here,” Enten said, indicating the Monmouth poll. “That, my friends, is the definition of an outlier.”

Enten also compared polling averages before and after the debates, concluding there was no “enthusiasm gap” for Biden, and partially dismissed the large crowds that Warren has been drawing.

“A very impressive crowd of 15,000 in Seattle on Sunday, but you have to put this into context,” Enten said, adding “Washington, where Seattle is, to my understanding of the U.S. map, Bernie Sanders won those caucuses 73% to 27%. It’s not a representative state in terms of the ideological spectrum, it’s significantly more to left on the Democratic side.”

[philf99]

1. It's way too early

To take any of these polls seriously IMHO.

Relax and let's see what happens as we get closer to people actually casting votes

[highplainsdem]

2. We're still months from the first primaries, but they've been polling for 10 months with Biden

leading the entire time. Maintaining a lead for that long, with two dozen rivals and a few very strong challengers, is impressive.

[brush]

4. Right. The first poll that will really mean something is the South Carolina primary.

Iowa and NH have nearly all white participants so they don't really reflect the constituency of the whole Democratic Party.

[Princetonian]

8. Yes, true, but it is fun and a nice horserace to see who is where going into the fall.

[George II]

3. It's not just Enten, it's just about every experience poll analyst. Nate Silver called the poll...

...an "outlier" on twitter this morning (or maybe last night)

[highplainsdem]

5. Democratic pollster John Anzalone and Republican pollster Logan Dobson were unimpressed, too:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287255551



https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=255579


Dobson called that Monmouth poll "useless."

[TSIAS]

11. Nate Silver has jumped the shark

Furthermore he has been relegated to Nate Bronze.

[Scurrilous]

6. K&R

[Princetonian]

7. Monmouth should be downgraded to a "D" rated poll - for "dumbass" poll.

[brooklynite]

9. ...and deservedly so

The poll WAS an outlier; tomorrow's polls will confirm that.

[Cha]

10. But the m$$$media were soooooo

excited!

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. I'm still surprised that they even released those results, especially with such a small sample size.