Echelon Insights poll: Biden vs only Sanders, or Warren, or Harris (two-candidate primary race)

[highplainsdem]

http://echeloninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/Omnibus-August-2019_Dem-Primary.pdf

Q. If the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today and you had to make a choice between these two candidates, for whom would you vote? (asked of Democrats & Democratic leaners)

V Sanders August Biden +20% July Biden +29%
V Warren August Biden +20% July Biden +19%
V Harris August Biden +24% July Biden +23%

Their polling showed that if the primary race were down to only two Democratic candidates at this point, Biden being one of them:

Biden beats Sanders 55% - 35%

Biden beats Warren 52% to 32%

Biden beats Harris 55% to 31%


Biden has slipped a little from July. But that 20+ points is still a commanding lead over his three closest competitors in those head-to-head matchups.


When they simply asked for Democratic candidate preference, the results were

Biden 30%
Sanders 19%
Warren 11%
Harris 11%
O'Rourke 4%
Booker 4%
Buttigieg 3%
All others 1% or less

[stonecutter357]

1. good let's go Joe !

[Princetonian]

2. Long way to go, but Joe is clearly the strongest candidate to face Trump.

Even stronger if the Biden campaign were to go negative...

[highplainsdem]

31. Yep.

[highplainsdem]

3. AFAIK, this is the only poll of two Dem primary candidates versus each other. Anyone know of any

other polls of this type?

[LincolnRossiter]

4. Not sure why everyone is selling the narrative that Joe's support is somehow "softer" than the other

Candidates. Or that he’s the “Meh” default candidate for those who haven’t yet found their real candidate.

The numbers don’t back up either assertion. Biden is Warren voters’ top second choice pick. In fact he picks up as much support as anyone else from most candidates dropping out.

[bluewater]

7. For some reason, Biden has been unable to gain support.

He had an early bump into the 40% range, but has been down around 30% for weeks now.

Something just isn't clicking for him.

It's fortunate for him that no other candidate has caught fire yet either. Warren is starting to show signs of gaining appeal but so far has managed only to get even with Sanders in the 15-20% range of support.

Voters just have not decided on a candidate yet, it seems.

[highplainsdem]

10. LOL. Biden's doing just fine, considering he has nearly two dozen competitors, a few of them

very strong candidates who are well-funded and also getting better treatment from the media than Biden's been getting.

[LincolnRossiter]

12. Who created the expectation that Biden should be running away with the nomination

less than four months after starting and still five months from the first contest? When was the last time the Democratic Party had a prohibitive favorite like that? Hillary came close to being that kind of favorite and still didn’t sew up the nomination until late spring. Obama came out of nowhere to win Iowa, then got stymied in N.H., then had to slog through the most competitive primary (for either party) in years, again not putting it away until late spring.

Don’t create unrealistic expectations just so you can gloat when they aren’t met.

[bluewater]

13. I think the Biden campaign did.

Back in the heady days of early May when he was at 41%.

[LincolnRossiter]

15. They point out that they're ahead. They are.

They never said “we got this thing so the rest of you can go home because this race is over.”

[bluewater]

17. That's true, not in so many words. But their actions spoke very loudly.

But after hitting 41% in the May polls and have a huge first month of fundraising, they decided to do a "run from the Rose Garden" strategy and campaign as if they were already in the general election.

But , in any case, eventually one or two candidates will catch fire, it just has not happened yet.

[LincolnRossiter]

18. He's averaging nearly 1/3 of all voters' support in a field of 21.

I don’t guess that’s “fire” but it isn’t a bad place to be.

[bluewater]

20. He's averaging about 25% of all voters in a field with 4 leading candidates.

So, we agree to call it luke warm?

Joking. Mostly.

No one, including Biden, is breaking out, yet. That is just how the campaign is going so far.

[LincolnRossiter]

22. Well 28% to be exact (RCP). It's probably a little higher on 538 because Nate includes different

versions and iterations of the same poll simultaneously.

So again, he isn’t a prohibitive favorite and hasn’t left the field behind, but he’s double digits ahead of his nearest competitor and is on a tier all his own according to experts (like Nate).

[bluewater]

23. So, we agree, closer to 1/4th than 1/3rd. ;)

Hey, but thanks for the discussion, its been interesting.

Thanks again for the tip about the RCP Polls Tracker only using one poll from a pollster at a time.

Take care.

[Thekaspervote]

28. The run from the rose garden... JUST your opinion

[highplainsdem]

16. Can you show us which statements from Biden or his campaign staff claimed he was running away

with the nomination? I don't recall any like that.

[bluewater]

5. Echelon Insights ? Unrated and Republican Pollsters?

"Echelon Insights is a polling and data analytics firm headquartered in Alexandria, VA founded by two top Republican pollsters, Patrick Ruffini and Kristen Soltis Anderson, a former IOP Fellow."

538 doesn't seem to have a rating for them. Are they a Republican boutique polling firm or something?

very suspicious....

[highplainsdem]

9. Whether or not they're rated, Silver lists their polls and has referred to their polls in the past,

going back years, so he apparently gives them some credibility.

And this poll's ranking of Democratic candidate preferences is pretty close to the RCP average.

[Thekaspervote]

14. Echelon insights polls for all kinds of org. Democracy Fund Voice- works to promote awareness

Of hate speech

Has done polls for buzzfeed... very left leaning.

Polls for right leaning orgs as well..pretty neutral, just after the facts

[BannonsLiver]

24. Yeah, but do they have chops like our own

Self proclaimed polling experts? I mean the wealth of knowledge regarding polling displayed here on a daily basis is truly breathtaking. The bolded text, the smilies, the self assurance. It’s really something to behold. We are truly blessed beyond belief to have so many wonderful experts here.

[Princetonian]

26. lolol

BannonsLiver

24. Yeah, but do they have chops like our own Self proclaimed polling experts? I mean the wealth of knowledge regarding polling displayed here on a daily basis is truly breathtaking. The bolded text, the smilies, the self assurance. It’s really something to behold. We are truly blessed beyond belief.

[Thekaspervote]

27. Oh... gee. I'll get right on it..call up the CEO and dig up the dirt......that's not there

[RKP5637]

6. I think tRump might have a harder time putting down Biden than Warren or Sanders in debates.

Just talking/thinking.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Agree! Thx for posting highplainsdem dem

[highplainsdem]

11. Almost all the polls of Trump vs individual Democratic candidates agree with you.

[Cha]

19. Thank you, highplainsdem!

Good to see Biden is still strong!

[Princetonian]

25. "Warren receives 1%" of AA voters.

A leading performance among AA voters for a Democratic Presidential candidate is central to their electability in a general election in states that are not 97% white.

According to the Economist Primary Poll Summary, Biden polls four times greater than Harris and 10 times greater than Booker among black voters.

In the OP, the Echelon Insights Poll says:

"Biden, Harris, and Booker overperform among black Democratic voters, while Warren receives 1% in this group."

http://echeloninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/Omnibus-August-2019_Dem-Primary.pdf

Something to think about when choosing a candidate...

[Skya Rhen]

29. +1,000,000

[Sogo]

30. I'm in Iowa.

Warren is gaining a lot of traction here, and I personally like her a lot.

Even if other candidates besides Joe take IA and NH, when it gets to SC Joe will have no competition. None of the other D candidates has the credibility with AA voters that Joe has, and that is a voter block the Ds have to take very seriously. If they had turned out for Hillary like they did for Obama, Hillary would now be in the WH....

[Scurrilous]

32. ...

[ooky]

33. Interesting result. I would expect, strictly ideologically speaking, that

if Sanders or Warren dropped out that his/her support would tend to consolidate behind the other, pushing closer to or even ahead of Biden. But this result doesn't say that.