What Elizabeth Warren's massive crowds tell us

[bluewater]

Over the weekend, Elizabeth Warren spoke in front of 15,000 people at a campaign rally in Seattle, Washington.
It was, by her campaign's estimates, the single largest crowd the Massachusetts Senator has drawn in her nearly year-long quest to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. (The 15,000 number came from Warren's campaign so take it with a grain of salt. But it's clear from the photos there were a WHOLE lot of people there.)

And, the Seattle crowd wasn't an anomaly. In St. Paul, Minnesota last week, Warren's campaign estimated 12,000 people turned out to see her. She had an estimated 4,000 people at a town hall in Los Angeles earlier this month.

So, what does crowd size tell us -- exactly?

Well, that depends. Politicos will remember that in the late stages of the 2012 presidential campaign, Mitt Romney was convinced he was going to beat President Obama because -- at least in part -- the size of the crowds coming to his rallies. Romney didn't win -- or even come close.

On the other hand, the massive crowds that Obama was able to draw -- both as a surrogate for other candidates in the 2006 cycle and then in his own right as a presidential contender in 2008 -- were a telling indicator of the organic passion and energy he was creating within the electorate.
[snip]
When you factor in that context, Warren's crowds of late almost certainly are an indicator of genuine momentum and excitement surrounding her candidacy. No matter what any of her rivals might say behind closed doors (or in public) about what Warren's crowds mean (or don't mean), you can be sure that each and every one of them would LOVE to be able to draw in the numbers that the Massachusetts Senator is right now.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/elizabeth-warren-crowd-size-2020/

[Blue_true]

1. Bernie drew large crowds in 2016 and lost.

But from what I see, the Warren crowds are different, older people and a lot of young families.

[Kahuna7]

2. He lost by almost 4 million votes. Hillary also got more votes than trump. nt

[elocs]

28. Yes, and all 4 million of those voters were in on the conspiracy to rob Bernie of the nomination. nt

[JI7]

6. that's becsuse the same people were going to all his rallies

even in areas with large minority populations the audiences were mostly white.

[Blue_true]

8. I saw the racial makeup, it was glaring. Even this year we have seen that. nt

[Kahuna7]

30. This is true. nt

[ehrnst]

7. He also made it a point to choose locations near college campuses

where there would be energetic attendees with flexible schedules.

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. "The polls are what the polls are".

[crazytown]

4. "The polls are what the polls are"

[bluewater]

11. Large enthusiastic crowds are what large enthusiastic crowds are.

[crazytown]

14. Let the golf balls fall where they may

[bluewater]

15. You need to keep the rhetorical repetition for the phrasing to really work...

So...

Let the golf balls fall where the golf balls fall.

[crazytown]

16. if you say so

[bluewater]

17. I do.

Was that from Biden's speech today? The one about the war story?

[crazytown]

18. I don't listen to Biden's speeches.

Do you?

[bluewater]

22. I read about his talk today in the Washington Post.

It's all over the news, apparently.

[crazytown]

23. Oh right

I'm a big time Biden supporter

[bluewater]

24. You're a big time Biden supporter?

But your primary preference shows Warren's pic...

Did someone say you were a Biden supporter? I mean, not that there is anything wrong with that...

Is he your second or third favorite or something?

[crazytown]

25. cu

[bluewater]

26. Have a nice evening!

[bluewater]

12. Large enthusiastic crowds are what large enthusiastic crowds are.

[Tarheel_Dem]

32. And we all know "large enthusiastic crowds" win primaries. Oh wait...

"The polls are what the polls are".

[MineralMan]

5. What percentage is 12,000 out of the MSP metro area's population of 3+ million?

Large turnouts indicate a lot of interest among those who show up. NFL games have large turnouts, too.

Beyond that, they don't say much about turnout in the primary elections that will be held in Minnesota on March 3. They just say that 12,000 people are interested enough in Warren to show up when she's in town.

[bluewater]

10. Just a hint of jealousy perhaps?

Perhaps.

Large enthusiastic crowds are what large enthusiastic crowds are.

[MineralMan]

19. Jealousy? Of what?

[bluewater]

21. Oh, hey, welcome back before January!

Your crowd-size-to-total-metro-area-population-percentage argument... well, the less said about that the better, eh?

So, are you jealous of the large enthusiastic crowds Elizabeth Warren is drawing? Is that possible?

Again, welcome back.

And btw I bought your book off Amazon!

[MineralMan]

31. Oh, for pete's sake.

What do you care whether I post or do not post? In any case, you are misremembering what I wrote, but it doesn't matter. People here change their minds all the time. I reserve the right to post as I please, when I please.

[Trenzalore]

9. Drawing crowds is nice

If you don't have volunteer organizers at the event to sign up the people in the crowd for a phone banking shift or a door knocking shift it is a giant waste of time for a public spectacle.

[Vegas Roller]

13. Mondale drew large crowds in 1984

Ron Paul drew large crowds in 2004

Crowds mean nothing.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

20. Ron Paul 2012

[Kurt V.]

27. its warren or biden. love the rest but that's that.

[customerserviceguy]

29. I used to live in Washington State

and we didn't often get Presidential candidates this early in the process, so, yes, there would be a big turnout for Sen. Warren. I remember being part of the large group that welcomed Jerry Brown to Olympia, WA in 1992, and I even got close enough to get his autograph. But, he was a West coast politician, and it was not surprising that he would make the trip up north.

Washington is a very reliably blue state, the last time they went for a GOP'er in a Presidential election was 1984, when Reagan won nearly all of the blue states. WA hasn't had a Republican Senator since 2000, nor a Republican governor since the early Eighties. It's no surprise to see that Sen. Warren attracted a large audience at the time she came.

Washington did two significant things for the upcoming election, first, they got rid of the caucus system for choosing convention delegates, moving to a primary system, and then they moved the primary earlier, a mere week after Super Tuesday. So, Sen. Warren was smart to go to WA, if she falters a bit on Super Tuesday, where eight of the fourteen states are traditionally GOP-leaning states, then WA can give her a boost a week later.

[cwydro]

33. Rec!