NYT: Polling Picture Comes Into Focus: Biden Leads a 3-Way Race at the Top

[lapucelle]

Biden COMMANDS a double digit lead; Warren MAINTAINS second place status; Sanders TUMBLES back to third place.

Direct of polling at Monmouth admits their most recent poll was an OUTLIER.

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New polls published on Wednesday show Joseph R. Biden Jr. with a significant national lead in the Democratic presidential race as the contest heads into the intense fall campaign season, with Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders rounding out a threesome that seems to have separated from the rest of the primary field.

The new data, which shows Mr. Biden earning the support of about one in three Democratic voters, stands in contrast to a poll published Monday that showed a virtual three-way tie between Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders at about 20 percent support each. On Wednesday, the director of that poll called those results an outlier.

The latest round of polling suggests that Mr. Biden’s national lead — at this early stage in the campaign — has been relatively durable throughout the summer. It has been fueled in part by the former vice president’s strong name recognition, calculations about general election viability and good will from rank-and-file Democratic voters, even as there are signs of greater volatility on the ground for Mr. Biden in the early-voting presidential primary states.

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Separately, a poll from USA Today and Suffolk University also found Mr. Biden at 32 percent, followed by Ms. Warren at 14 percent and Mr. Sanders at 12 percent.

Those numbers contradict a Monmouth University Poll that drew attention from the news media, including The New York Times, earlier in the week. It showed Mr. Biden plummeting 13 percentage points from June, putting him at 19 percent, with Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders at 20 percent each. On Wednesday, Patrick Murray, the director of that poll, said in a statement that it was clear the results had diverged from the polling consensus.

“It occurs very infrequently, but every pollster who has been in this business a while recognizes that outliers happen,” Mr. Murray said. “This appears to be one of those instances.”

https://nyti.ms/2ZFXfLm

[bluewater]

1. Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders, meanwhile, have established themselves...

Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders, meanwhile, have established themselves in a tier above the rest of the Democratic field. No other candidate has consistently reached double-digit support in recent surveys; in the Quinnipiac and Suffolk polls, the only other candidates with 5 percent or better were Senator Kamala Harris of California and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind. More than a dozen of the Democrats got just 1 percent — or less.

As of today, after a flurry of good polls for him, Joe Biden's AVERAGE support stands at 28.9%.

Bernie Sanders is at 17.1% AVERAGE support, and Elizabeth Warren at 16.5%. Their combined total being 33.6%.

Harris is at 7%, Buttigieg at 4.6%, Yang at 2.5% and O'Rourke at 2.4%.

Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Harris all have funding to go deep into the primary season. Eventually, this field will narrow and then it all gets interesting.

[lapucelle]

4. It's been pretty clear all summer that Biden is maintaining front runner status,

Warren is picking up support, and Sanders is fading, notwithstanding any bias confirming outlier polls from earlier in the week.

[Cha]

5. "..notwithstanding any bias confirming outlier polls from earlier in the week."

Thank you, lapucelle!

[George II]

6. Two days ago Biden was plummeting at 26.6, BS at 18.2, Warren at 16.2, and some were predicting...

...gloom and doom for Biden.

Now, two days later we have the Monmouth pollster calling their poll an outlier, and RCP has Biden soars to 28.9 (+2.3), BS drops to 17.1 (-1.1) and Warren is at 16.5, +0.3. And these averages include the poll that most people INCLUDING the pollster call an outlier.

[Cha]

12. Yeah! How about that great news for BIDEN?!

Not so much for those who got so excited about the Outlier.

Mahalo, George!

[Cha]

2. Wonderful! Mahalo, lapucelle!

[Demsrule86]

8. very good news!

[Cha]

10. So good!

[Thekaspervote]

3. Yes... good news!

[Demsrule86]

7. So ...that is what they say...it was an outlier? That is it...anyone knew that when they published

and then breathlessly proclaimed the end for Biden...finally what they knew (wanted) had happened...everyone now became 'woke' like them...there was media glee throughout the TV and print industry...only they were wrong...and would have known if they were not so sure of their own infallibility and so determined to destroy Biden.

[lapucelle]

11. Polling director acknowledges recent Monmouth survey was an outlier

Last edited Wed Aug 28, 2019, 08:56 PM - Edit history (1)

As per CNN:

Monmouth University's poll showing a three-way tie between former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders atop the 2020 Democratic field for president was an outlier, the university's polling director said Wednesday.

"t is clear that the Monmouth University Poll published Monday is an outlier," polling director Patrick Murray said in a statement. "I understood when we released our poll that the picture it painted diverged from others."
Murray's statement came after the release of other polls showed Biden ahead of Sanders and Warren, usually by double digits -- a trend that has remained steady throughout the Democratic primary race. Many speculated that Monmouth might be an outlier, given no hugely notable events had occurred that would've changed the race substantially.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/monmouth-poll-outlier/index.html

[Demsrule86]

9. Thanks for the post.

[Cha]

13. Aloha, lapucelle.. I tagged you and hattiped you here!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287258176

[Cha]

14. KICK for Excellent OP!!

[Cha]

15. Biden COMMANDS a double digit lead; Warren MAINTAINS second place status; Sanders TUMBLES back to

third place.

[Tarheel_Dem]

16. K&R

[MineralMan]

17. Don't forget that 15% rule, either. If you want delegates from a primary

election, you don't get any unless you get 15% or more of the vote. That's something people seem to be forgetting as they look at the polls. In the one you quoted above, only Joe Biden would get any delegates, and he'd get all of the delegates if a primary vote looked like that.

That's one of the things about a race with so many candidates. You don't need a majority of primary votes to take all the delegates. All you need is for none of the others to get 15% of the total vote.

The 15% rule is going to play very largely in 2020 primaries, if many candidates make it onto the ballots in our states.

Forget the 15% rule and you'll miss something very, very important.