I believe it's a 3- candidate race.

[MontanaFarmer]

Unless and until some seismic shift can change the dynamic, our candidate is likely to be Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Of those 3, Warren has the best and most well-articulated plans on ag/ rural issues, so I've switched my support to her. If Biden is the nominee i think that's great as well, the country and our party would be in excellent hands with Joe pop at the wheel. Bernie doesn't really do it for me, but I'd gladly vote for him in a general too. My candidate from the beginning has been Harris, but i think she botched her handling of health care. I'd love to see her on the ticket, but I'm on team Elizabeth!

[oldsoftie]

1. I'd replace Sanders with Harris. Theres just no way Sanders wins the Democratic nomination.

And again, winning is what matters

[MontanaFarmer]

3. I don't think he'll be the nominee either.

But he has a durable base of support that others have not demonstrated, including Harris. That's why i put him in there at this juncture.

[MoonRiver]

9. I agree with that.

I think Kamala will surprise people, just like Obama.

[question everything]

10. +1

[rurallib]

36. I agree - I think Sanders has topped out

while Harris is just starting to become known.

[highplainsdem]

2. I think it's too early to declare it a three-person race. Warren and Sanders aren't really any

farther ahead of the best candidates in the third tier than Biden is ahead of them.

We do have three tiers. Biden at the top, then Warren and Sanders in varying order, then Harris, Buttigieg, O'Rourke and Booker.

[Thekaspervote]

23. +1000

[wasupaloopa]

4. It is too early to predict who is going to be the nominee.

Last edited Sat Aug 31, 2019, 02:38 PM - Edit history (1)

Anyone of the candidates could do something to cause them to drop out.

Add to that losses in state primaries could shake things up.

I am not counting my chickens yet.

[LincolnRossiter]

20. I posted a graphic from RCP in another thread showing that in the last five contested primaries

(2 in 2008, 1 in 2012, 2 in 2016) the candidate leading at the end of August in the preceding year (where we are now) won in 3/5 cases, which were the last three—Romney in 12, Clinton in 16, Trump in 16. In 2008 Clinton and Giuliani led at this point in their respective primaries.

In 4/5 cases (all but Giuliani, who had a bizarre strategy of not seriously contesting any primary until Florida) the late August leader went the distance and finished top 2. This includes the three aforementioned winners plus Hillary in 08 (who actually received more raw votes than Obama in that year’s primary.

So barring unforeseen scandals or meltdowns, being in the lead at this point is statistically significant over the last three cycles (the modern era).

[Thekaspervote]

24. Interesting break down..thx for doing the work and posting

[WheelWalker]

5. Even if we agree Warren has the "best and most well articulated plans" for every issue...

It is clear beyond question imo that Biden has the best chance as President of shepherding her plans through to passage and implementation.

[Green Line]

11. Yes she does have the "best and most well articulated plans"

but how are any of them going to pass? How is she going to pay for them? How is she going to win the rust belt?

[KPN]

18. She has many times described exactly how she is going to pay for them. They will pass the same way

Obama passed the ACA -- Dem control of both houses and by whatever means necessary, even if that means not getting everything she wants. There is also the absolute nuclear option, i.e., getting rid of the filibuster in the Senate. (Hard to make a really strong argument for preserving it given the lengths to which the GOP has and will continue to go to achieve not only whatever they want but total and complete dominance. Better us than them. Abolish the filibuster and increase the SCOTUS to 15 if necessary.)

Elizabeth Warren has the will, the moxie and the skills to do what it takes to achieve progressive goals.

[WheelWalker]

21. "Even if..." I don't agree with that premise, but wanted to point out even if true, there is more

to being President than originating and articulating good plans. Very often a President has to be able to bridge divides and be able to deliver the result others' plans target. That's what I think Biden brings to the table, more than any other candidate. "Even if..."

[Green Line]

22. Yes he does

[Thekaspervote]

25. Indeed.. I am also concerned about her foreign policy statements

She stated in I believe debate #2 that having a no first strike policy was wrong. Oh no!!

This country has had a no first strike policy since Seward encouraged Lincoln to strike and Lincoln replied he would not be the first to draw blood.

There’s only one candidate that leaders of the free world contacted and asked him.... please run, the world needs you

[brooklynite]

6. Disagree...

Biden, Warren and Sanders are the top three ranked candidates, but I see nothing in Sanders' campaign messaging or strategy that will move him into a competitive position with Biden. The question is whether Harris can shift into the top tier at Sanders' expense.

[MontanaFarmer]

7. As i said in a reply above:

i don't think Bernie will be the nominee. But he's in a more- competitive position than Harris. Much more. If something happened to Warren's campaign, he'd gain some support there. I was all-in on Harris, but again i think she missed it on health care and wasn't prepared for attacks that her campaign should have seen coming a mile away. Again, I'm not arguing for Bernie at all, quite the opposite, but he's got the durable support and the donors to hang in a long time. Not many candidates below there in the polls can say the same.

[brooklynite]

19. I'm not aware thing for or against anyone...

From a dispassionate analytical standpoint, it’s either a TWO person race or a three person race if Harris can build some momentum out of the next debates.

[Thekaspervote]

27. Actually if you look at second choices, it seems it doesn't play out that way

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

Here’s another link “sanders and warren voters have astonishingly little in common.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

[PatrickforO]

8. Team Elizabeth! Yes, I'm on that team, too.

Her policies are very solid, she has charisma and she works really hard. She will make a fine president should she be our nominee.

[Joe941]

12. I think bernie an Warren are splitting the same base...

Biden has topped out. The question is will Warren or sanders consolidate their group.

[Green Line]

15. That's not what the polls say

second choice for most of Sander's supporters is Biden, he also is second choice for a large percentage of Warren's supporters.

[Thekaspervote]

28. This! See post #27...lays out those numbers you are referring to

[dsp3000]

13. Harris lost me after talking about the bus thing the SECOND debate.

You had your drive-by moment, move on. Bringing up a second time doesn't help anyone, including yourself!

I think all the bernie supporters should consolidate around warren. much more electable.

[Green Line]

16. She was my second choice before she pulled that stunt

I was really disappointed by her. I will vote for her if she's the nominee, but she's now near the bottom of my list.

[KPN]

14. She also best represents the largest share of Dems when you consider which two candidates

of the three are the most closely alike on issues and priorities.

I'm leaning heavily toward Warren, but haven't fully committed at this point -- though I have been donating to her campaign regularly.

[NYMinute]

17. Neither EW nor BS can win the South and Midwest. nt

[mainstreetonce]

26. This is what we have to worry about

Think election real votes!

[Thekaspervote]

29. I do like her but, EW is at 2% with AA voters. No one can win on that

We HAVE to win this election

[MontanaFarmer]

33. This i agree with.

Until someone breaks biden's dominance with AA voters, he's the overwhelming favorite for the nomination. I think Warren or Harris could appeal to them, but folks know and trust Biden. Will be interesting.

[blm]

31. Why do you think Trump speaks to kitchen table issues better than Warren?

Are you familiar with the reasons why Obama wanted to meet her even before he became a senator? Why he based the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on years of her study and work?

[aeromanKC]

30. Bernie is stuck at 8% (here at DU) and won't be going anywhere

Whose going to switch to Bernie? Nobody. (That's a huge generalization, but for the most part it's true)

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

32. Biden, Warren and Harris.

Bernie's numbers will fall as Warren's rise. Biden probably will come out on top at the end, but Bernie won't get past the primaries.

[Eric J in MN]

34. Bernie Sanders advocated breaking up Big Ag

...before Elizabeth Warren did.

Please read (or re-read) Bernie’s farm plan:
https://berniesanders.com/issues/revitalizing-rural-america/

[MontanaFarmer]

35. I like his plan.

But her wealth tax plays better than his estate tax in rural America.

[Lithos]

37. I see a 2+2 situation

Warren, Biden
Harris, Sanders


I think baring some unlikely event, it will be the top two at the end.... The gap between the top two (in my mind) and the next two is pretty significant.

L-