9/3 IBD/TIPP Democratic Primaries poll: Biden 28%, Warren 24%, Sanders 12%, Harris 6%

[highplainsdem]

https://www.investors.com/news/elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-sanders-democratic-race-biden-vs-trump/

Elizabeth Warren had the support of 24% of registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, up from 17% in August. Joe Biden's support dipped to 28% from 30%.

Meanwhile, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders came in a distant third at 12%, unchanged from August. Support for Calif. Sen. Kamala Harris sank to 6% from 11% in August.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg slipped a point to 5%. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker had the backing of 4%, up from 2% in August. No other candidate polled more than 1%. Another 15% of respondents said they were undecided.

-snip-

In the Democratic nomination matchup, Biden polled 28% support among both women and men. Warren's support rose to 27% among women, but 19% among men.

Warren led all candidates among whites, with 26% support to Biden's 24% and 14% for Sanders. That suggests early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, whose demographics tilt white, offer her a potential opening. Yet polling ahead of the Granite State primary has shown Warren trailing Biden and Sanders there. That could make Iowa's caucus a must win for her.

Elizabeth Warren is the favorite among self-described liberals, with 35% vs. 18% for Joe Biden and 14% for socialist Bernie Sanders. Biden dominates among self-described conservative or moderate voters who are Democrats or Democrat-leaning, with 41% and 33% of those groups.

Biden has a big edge among black and Hispanics, leading with 33% support to 19% for Elizabeth Warren and 10% for Bernie Sanders. That's consistent with Biden's big lead in polls of the key early South Carolina primary.

Support for Biden was tepid among younger voters. Sanders led among 25-44 age group, with Biden in third. But Biden's dominating lead among older voters puts him in the driver's seat for the Democratic nomination, at least for now.

-snip-

Editing to add that this is a poll of only 360 registered voters who are Democrats or lean Democratic. So a very small sample, not much bigger than the 298-voter sample of the discredited Monmouth poll last week. And these are registered voters, not likely voters, and polling so far indicated Biden does better with likely voters.

[Gothmog]

1. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

[DrFunkenstein]

7. "Electable" Has Nothing to Do With Actually Winning

Ask Clinton how she's enjoying the West Wing.

Electable just means asking the American people "who do you think other people will vote for." And trust among American people for the basic decency and intelligence of each other is at an all time low.

Biden can only ride Obama's coattails for so long, especially with an uninspiring campaign (it's not exactly packing them in for his rousing speeches) filled with numerous self-inflicted wounds already at this very early stage.

Meanwhile, Warren has run a near-flawless campaign since her early stumble, complete with passionate speeches that make us feel proud to Democrats and ready for the massive challenges this country and planet face. Very disciplined campaign, very coherent message with a down-home populist touch that surprised many expecting some snooty Harvard professor.

[LanternWaste]

11. Wish I could see it as simply "riding coattails..."

"Biden can only ride Obama's coattails for so long..."

But if I did, I'd have the responsibility to support that premise with objective evidence, or else people would see it as little more than another empty and meaningless t-shirt slogan.

But I suppose expectations of supporting our own conclusions is simply "snooty..."

[Joe941]

13. That's pure speculation.

[virgogal]

2. I frankly don't get the obsession

with polls after 2016....I ignore them all.

[LanternWaste]

12. I see it less as obsession, and more as simply data points.

[Skya Rhen]

3. Go, Joe!!!

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. MOE of 3.3% means Warren and Biden are statistically tied nt

[highplainsdem]

8. Or it could be Biden 31% Warren 21%, which would put it more in line with other polls.

[crazytown]

5. Given my interest is 2nd & 3rd

I like it!

[highplainsdem]

6. BTW, I'm skeptical of this poll because it shows Warren with twice as much support as Sanders.

I think it's an outlier, that their sample contained more Warren supporters and fewer Sanders supporters than a more accurate sample would have turned up. The RCP average is currently Sanders 17.1% and Warren 16.5%. Warren might be a few points ahead of Sanders, maybe 20% to 16% at most, but I don't believe she's ahead 24% t0 12%. That's as much as an outlier as the Monmouth poll, immediately dismissed as an outlier even by Monmouth, finding Warren and Sanders both at 20% and Biden at 19%.

[LincolnRossiter]

9. Not sure this is an outlier in the strictest sense. It's pretty consistent with what the current

basket of polls is showing for Biden’s support. I’d be skeptical that Warren’s support is double Bernie's At this point. But maybe it is. As Nate said, throw it in with the average and consider it in the overall context of the race’s current dynamic—which is that Biden is essentially holding firm while Warren continues to gain support and Bernie and Kamala are receding.

Want to highlight something in the poll that earned me some flak from Warren supporters over the weekend, though; Biden is the only candidate consistently outside Trump’s MoE. And that can’t all be name recognition. Warren and Sanders are plenty famous by now.

[jcgoldie]

10. I don't think the numbers mean much in any individual poll...

...other than to show that Joe is still the favorite and Elizabeth still seems to be gaining momentum.

[DrToast]

14. "Elizabeth still seems to be gaining momentum"

Not sure I’d agree with this. She gained up until July, but since July 1st the race has been very stable, including Warren’s numbers.

[jcgoldie]

15. Thats not what this poll says

24 may be an outlier, but its in the direction of the trend-line.

[DrToast]

16. One poll vs. Polling averages

Polling averages are considerably more accurate than one poll. And the polling averages are clear. Since July the race has been very stable. The only candidate that has seen significant movement has been Harris, and that’s down.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

Warren is up a couple of points since July, but so is Biden. So if Warren is surging, then so is Biden.

[jcgoldie]

17. According to aggregates of polls at RCP Warren has risen from 13.4 to 16.9 since July 1st nationally

...Meanwhile Biden has gone from 29.9 to 30.4 over the exact interval which you chose.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[DrToast]

18. July 1st, Biden was at 27%

I can’t seem to link to the chart, but that’s what I see even on the chart you link to.

And for the record, I didn’t just arbitrarily pick that date. It’s the date after the second round of debates were over.

[jcgoldie]

19. you are incorrect

All you have to do is look at the link. You pull the vertical red line across the line graph to the date you chose.

[DrToast]

21. Show me your screenshot

Here's mine:

[jcgoldie]

22. okie

[SteveDallas]

20. Must be ANOTHER outlier.

Gosh.. so many outliers these days.

[oasis]

23. Joe's campaign is in good shape. Keep it up gang.

[Cha]

24. KICK!