New ABC/WP poll, narrowed to registered voters: Biden 29%, Sanders 19%, Warren 18%,

[highplainsdem]

Harris 7%, Buttigieg 4%, O'Rourke & Yang 3%, all others 1% or less


This is the poll that's being widely reported as 27% for Biden, 19% for Sanders, and 17% for Warren. Both Biden and Warren do better when it's narrowed to registered voters, but Biden does 2% better and Warren does 1% better. (Registered voters are at least slightly more likely to vote than people surveyed in polls that don't narrow it to those who are already registered. Polls of likely voters, based on past voting history and other factors, tend to show Biden with a wider lead over his rivals than he has in polls of registered voters.)


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/warren-gains-harris-slips-room-movement-vast/story?id=65414558

The poll finds Biden, this summer’s front-runner, far better rated for electability than for being “the best president for the country.” Still, his supporters are more committed than those of other candidates, and electability has advanced as a priority, helping him hold his ground -- albeit not advance.

Biden has support from 27 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in the national survey, compared with 19 percent for Sanders and 17 percent for Warren. The rest of the field is in the single digits, including 7 percent for Harris, 4 percent for Pete Buttigieg and 3 percent apiece for Beto O’Rourke and Andrew Yang. All others are at 1 percent or less in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Narrowing to registered voters -- although there’s plenty of time to register -- shows similar results, with Biden-Sanders-Warren at 29-19-18 percent and Harris again at 7 percent. Two candidates, Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar, inch to 2 percent.

[crazytown]

1. You may also like my take on that poll

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287269670

[highplainsdem]

2. Yes, I did! And thanks for posting that! But there were some details of the poll that

I wanted to highlight, which is why I'm posting OPs about them.

[Scurrilous]

3. ...

[Joe941]

4. Too early for polls to mean much.

[Cha]

10. Except if BS were ahead, amiright?

[BlueMississippi]

5. k&r nt

[LincolnRossiter]

6. And Biden's supporters are, by far, the most committed.

So much for us just settling until someone new comes along.

[Peacetrain]

7. Excellent explanation...

[Green Line]

8. Where Warren's support is increasing is very important

From the poll:

The only meaningful shifts are +6 points for Warren from her 11 percent support in early July, while Harris has lost a slight 4 points (6 points among those registered to vote). Warren gained, in particular, in the Northeast (where the Massachusetts senator has 28 percent support), in urban areas (22 percent) and among liberals (27 percent), while Harris lost 10 points among seniors, a Biden stronghold.

Increasing her lead in the Northeast is meaningless. She needs to win the rust belt in the general, which I don't think she can do.

[peggysue2]

9. Agreed!

She needs to win the rust belt in the general, which I don't think she can do.

Like Warren a lot but I just don't see her winning in the places we need to kick Trump to the curb and fully repudiate the Trump humpers. We can't afford another near miss, regardless of reasons. The win needs to be huge and indisputable. Joe Biden is the only candidate IMHO who can do that.

[highplainsdem]

12. +1,000,000

[highplainsdem]

11. Just noticed that FiveThirtyEight's Latest Polls page is including the registered voter #s

as well as the overall #s for adults polled.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

So I guess they think the distinction important.

[brooklynite]

13. A registered voter poll is not "narrowed"; a poll of likely voters is...

[highplainsdem]

14. Look at the poll. 538 lists the two different results as those for A (adults) and RV (registered

voters).

Biden does two points better when the people who aren't registered to vote are dropped out of the results.


Editing to add that ABC News referred to narrowing to registered voters. See the excerpt in the OP.

[brooklynite]

15. A vote of "adults" is a meaningful as a Facebook poll...

If you're not registered to vote, your preference is meaningless.

[highplainsdem]

16. Well, they polled adults who weren't registered anyway. That news story notes that there's

still plenty of time to vote. But I'd probably call those people polled who weren't registered the Unlikeliest Voters.