Bernie Sanders jumps to the lead in NH: Franklin Pierce-Herald poll shows

[Uncle Joe]

Former Vice President Joe Biden has lost his lead in New Hampshire with U.S. Sen Bernie Sanders jumping ahead in what is now clearly a three-person race for the Democratic primary, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows.

Sanders tops the poll at 29% of likely Democratic primary voters.

Biden comes in second with 21% of the vote and Massachusetts U.S. Sen Elizabeth Warren is third in the poll with 17%.

The telephone poll was conducted Sept. 4-10 of likely N.H. primary voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8%.

(snip)

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/09/11/bernie-sanders-jumps-to-lead-in-nh-franklin-pierce-herald-poll-shows/

I believe for 538 has this pollster ranked with a B-

[ehrnst]

1. New Hampshire, among Dems?

Well, yes, it's a small, very white population, on the East Coast.

Voters at large, around the country, according to this poll, gave someone the highest disapproval rating of all the Democratic candidates:



https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=272583


Mikeysnot!!

[Tiggeroshii]

3. I'm gradually coming to terms with the fact Warren is the best candidate.

Still split between the two (Sanders and Warren), but I take the favorability ratings actually quite seriously. Far more than the silly head to head polls more than a year out.

[HerbChestnut]

2. Thanks, Uncle Joe.

Queue the poll police.

[George II]

5. What's that?

[corbettkroehler]

10. You Weren't Wrong

Keep reading this thread to find all of the deconstruction since the truth is unacceptable.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

16. But but but teh White Peoples!1!

[highplainsdem]

4. 538 has Emerson rated a B+ pollster, and their Sept. 6-9 poll of NH likely voters has Sanders at 13%

behind Biden at 24% and Warren at 21%.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/09/10/sanders-slips-in-new-hampshire-biden-warren-take-lead/

One of those polls is wrong.

Btw, Emerson had Sanders at 27% back in February.

[Thekaspervote]

6. Hummm... haven't heard of the herald poll.

Some of the other recent polls were not near as favorable to sanders, but did not have as a high number as the Emerson poll for Biden... guess we’ll see

[highplainsdem]

7. More poll details at link below. Sanders at 28.5%, Biden 21.2%, Warren 17.2%.

https://www.scribd.com/document/425431283/FPU-NH-Presidential-Poll-2019

[floppyboo]

14. thanks! Page 29 is interesting

Bernie is far out performing all the others on no-lean independents. Biden 19% Sanders 32%

[Joe941]

8. Bernie is surging

[George II]

9. This is the first Franklin Pierce-Herald poll this time around. Even 538 doesn't rate them...

....although they do have a rating for Franklin Pierce alone.

One would hope that BS would be at or near the top in his neighboring state in which his son is a politician.

[sheshe2]

12. I just did a ton of research here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=273222

I should have saved myself the time and asked you. BTW...The Boston Herald, they lean right and never met a Dem they liked. They like to stir stuff up.

[Green Line]

15. The Herald is a right wing rag

[sheshe2]

18. Lol!

I was just trying to be polite!

By your user name, I would guess you are from MA too.

[sheshe2]

11. Uncle Joe, would link to 538's ranking?

I have read your link and found nothing. I have also checked on the Universities site as well.

https://www.franklinpierce.edu/institutes/mfcc/polling.htm

They go into great depth about the methodology:

Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered September 4-10, 2019. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (84%) and landline (16%) telephone numbers. The poll was conducted by RKM Research and Communications. A total of 839 interviews were conducted, including n=425 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=414 likely Republican presidential primary voters.
The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 425 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.8 percent.
The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 414 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.8 percent.
In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

...............................

Again no rating from 538 here as well.

Perhaps I am missing something. I went to 538 as well. I didn't see them mentioned.

Thanks for your help. I must be doing the research incorrectly.

[Uncle Joe]

13. Here you go sheshe.

POLLSTER METHOD LIVE CALLER WITH CELLPHONES NCPP/​AAPOR/​ROPER POLLS ANALYZED SIMPLE AVERAGE ERROR RACES CALLED CORRECTLY ADVANCED +/- PREDICTIVE +/- 538 GRADE BANNED BY 538 MEAN-REVERTED BIAS
Franklin Pierce University
Live
21
6.6
83%
+0.6
+0.4
B-
D+1.3

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

When you go to 538's pollster ratings, if you just spell out Franklin, it will be one of two that pop up.

Personally I wish 538 would alphabetize their listings, they would be easier to locate a specific pollster.

[sheshe2]

17. Finally, scrolled 2 pages and found them listed.

However that poll is dated: UPDATED May 30, 2018 at 11:00 AM