Biden's challenge: Iowa and New Hampshire

[brooklynite]

UVA Center for Politics

As Democrats prepare to debate tonight, the Democratic race remains largely as it has been. Joe Biden is leading, but the other candidates are preparing — and hoping — for him to eventually fall off. It is anyone’s guess as to whether this will actually happen. Democrats hoping for Biden to collapse may find themselves in the position of Donald Trump’s opponents from four years ago by acting out their own version of Waiting for Godot — anticipating the arrival of something that never actually arrives.

If Biden retains his lead into next year, though, it may be that the thing that ultimately trips him up is the Democratic nomination calendar.

While Biden’s lead is built on support from African Americans, hardly any black voters will participate in the first two contests: the Iowa caucus on Feb. 3 (the day after the Super Bowl) and the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 11. According to the 2016 exit polls, the Democratic electorates in both states were over 90% white.

The opportunity that these two overwhelmingly white electorates present to the other candidates is obvious, based on the current demographic bases of support for Biden and his two current leading rivals, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

[Peacetrain]

1. Challenges for VP Biden just got a whole lot less this morning..

I live in Iowa, cannot speak for New Hampshire..

[peggysue2]

3. Do tell, Peacetrain

Did I miss a new poll out of Iowa? I know you've said before Biden is very strong on the ground. But what happened this morning?

Inquiring minds and all that.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. This is every candidate's challenge.

And also their opportunity.

If Biden doesn't win Iowa, or finishes a distant third, I think he'll find his campaign in a tough spot and I don't know if South Carolina can save him.

If Bernie doesn't win Iowa, or finishes a distant third, I think he'll find his campaign in a tough spot and I don't know if New Hampshire can save him - especially with Nevada and South Carolina down the pike (and a slew of Super Tuesday states that favor Biden).

If Warren doesn't win Iowa, or finishes a distant third, I think she'll find her campaign in a tough spot and I don't know if New Hampshire can save her - especially with her trailing, badly, it seems, in Nevada and South Carolina.

How does Harris or Mayor Pete or anyone else bounce back from a distant fourth, fifth and sixth place finish?