Firehouse/Optimus poll of WI/MI/PA: Biden beats Trump in all 3 states, Sanders & Warren in 2

[highplainsdem]

Sanders actually does better against Trump than Biden does in Wisconsin.


http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/

General Election Ballot Tests: We asked 2020 likely general election voters a series of head-to-head ballot tests against the three Democratic Presidential candidates with the highest current polling numbers: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. Given the electoral math, the Democratic nominee likely needs to win some or all of these Midwestern states to win the election.

In Wisconsin, we find all three candidates with a lead over Trump, though still within the margin of error. Sanders has the largest lead at +6, followed by Biden at +2 and Warren at +1. Among independents/others, Sanders leads Trump by 9 points. Warren trails Trump by 1 among this group, and Biden leads by only 2.


In Michigan, Biden fares the best among the three candidates, the only one of the three with a lead (+4), though also within the margin of error. We find Warren and Sanders both trailing Trump, by 2 and 3 points respectively. Interestingly, the gender gap is larger with a Biden-Trump matchup than with a Warren-Trump matchup. Biden leads by 14 points among females and Trump leads by 12 among males, while Warren leads by 8 among females and Trump leads by 12 among males. Sanders leads females by 6, while Trump leads by 13 among males in that matchup.


In Pennsylvania, President Trump is currently losing in head-to-head matchups against each of the three Democratic frontrunners. Trump performs the worst against Biden, where the Scranton-native enjoys a lead of 4 percentage points. Against Warren and Sanders, Trump is down 2 percentage points to each.

[Tiggeroshii]

1. WTF is wrong with Michigan??

Did they not see what that fucker did and is doing to the state? Also is the the same michigan that elected the most liberal legislator by double digits to governor??

[JI7]

2. the governor did not support Medicare for all when she ran

they may be worried about changes in their health care

[Tiggeroshii]

4. So.. Vote for trump?

Anybody not willing to immiediately vote for a rusty nail over that fucker is completely loony tunes.

[JI7]

5. many union members are conservative leaning

they often oppose environmental regulations

[Tiggeroshii]

8. Do they oppose common decency too?

Good gracious. That is a repugnant poll result and i hope is not accurate.

[KPN]

3. All we need is one, or do we need all three?

My recollection is tRump needed and won all three. So would not one suffice?

[Tiggeroshii]

6. If we flip nc or az or ohio, it could balance out. But all 3 would be needed

Assyming we dont flip anything else

[LincolnRossiter]

9. This election needs to be a referendum on and repudiation of Trumpism.

We should be aiming for all three, plus OH, FL, NC, and AZ.

[Tiggeroshii]

11. And flipping TX.

Im almost not sure whats harder at this point. Michigan and wisconsin or texas. Polling shows all the states are similar in head to head polling.

[LincolnRossiter]

12. I'll take it!

And Nate Silver would say that, polling notwithstanding, the "fundamentals" in Michigan and Wisconsin are much more favorable to a Dem nominee than Texas. But hell. Let's spend the time and money and see where it takes us.

[Tiggeroshii]

17. Agreed!

I think that Texas' "fundamentals" are certainly on their way to major change is indicated in 2018.

[onetexan]

22. i think TX is very flippable.We just need to get more Dems, moderate Republicans who disagree with

the state of madness brought on by their own party, and Independents to get out and vote Blue. All 5 major metroplexes (DFW, Houston, Austin, El Paso, & San Antonio) are for the most part blue. Many Dems don't vote here in TX (damn shame of course). Democratic push should be to motivate them to register and go to the polls come November.

[Thekaspervote]

23. Agree!

[Rstrstx]

25. Flipping Arizona would be enough to offset one of the 3 rebel states

Even if the rest of the map was exactly the same as 2016. Though if PA were the one state that stayed red it could lead to an interesting outcome



I like AZ better than NC or GA or even FL because voter suppression there doesn't seem quite so egregious, a lot of their residents vote by mail-in ballots. AZ also has a winnable Senate race.

[highplainsdem]

10. We don't know how many we need. And to take back the Senate, and win a filibuster-proof

majority, we need a landslide.

There have been some polls showing Biden beating Trump in Texas. If we can win Texas, that's 38 electoral votes, more than any other state except California.

Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. Michigan has 16, and Wisconsin has 10. So Texas has almost as many as all three of those combined.

We need to win wherever we can, especially in the states we lost last time. Running up total vote count in Democratic strongholds we won last time won't help us nearly as much as winning any of the other states.

And so far, from the polls I've seen, Biden's our best bet to win those states.


(Note: I'm reposting this after deleting it because I had the electoral vote # wrong for one state.)

[Thekaspervote]

24. Candidates that don't campaign in every state are taking serious chances, just as voters asking if

We need this state or that one.

If you don’t think so, Hillary. She openly admits they ignored PA and MI

Or ask Al Gore who ignored his home state of TN. Had he campaigned there and won TN, FL and the hanging chads would have been a moot point

[Rstrstx]

26. He would have only needed tiny New Hampshire

But back then campaigns weren't as sophisticated about targeting specific states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. We need all three but Firehouse is Little Marco's biased crap pollster

[highplainsdem]

19. So even a Republican pollster shows Dems beating Trump in those key states?

I don't think that's bad news.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. By a point or two.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Firehouse is Little Marco's pollster

BIASED SHIT POLL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Little Marco's pollster

http://firehousestrategies.com/our-team/

[highplainsdem]

18. Your link doesn't work.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. It's a rogue's gallery of GOP hack pollsters

http://firehousestrategies.com/our-team/

[LAS14]

16. This is the only sort of poll I'll be watching carefully over the next few months.

It will be a lot more informative once we have a nominee. But then it will be too late to change our minds.