538: Who Won The Third Democratic Debate?

[bluewater]

To better understand which candidates did well or poorly Thursday night, we plotted how favorably respondents rated the candidates before the debate vs. how debate-watchers rated their performance. Warren was one of the better-liked candidates going into the debate, but her performance was still rated higher than we’d expect based on her favorability alone. The same was true of Booker, Buttigieg and (especially) O’Rourke. Interestingly, Klobuchar didn’t get a great debate rating, but it’s not bad considering her pre-debate favorability, which was pretty neutral. Biden (who’s very popular among Democrats) and Castro stand out for performing worse than expected given their pre-debate favorability.
[snip]

In terms of raw debate grades — respondents graded on a four-point scale (higher scores are better — Warren, Buttigieg and O’Rourke did best. Booker, Sanders, Biden and Harris did fine. Again, the person who stands out most is Castro, who got the worst marks (perhaps for his memorable attacks on Biden).
[snip]

There wasn’t much movement in respondents’ average estimates of how likely each candidate would be to defeat Trump in the general election. Most candidates saw their average likelihood increase, but only marginally. Klobuchar saw the largest bump, 2.6 percentage points, followed by Warren and Yang.
[snip]

We asked likely Democratic primary voters how favorably they felt about each candidate both before and after the debate. As you can see, among the polling front-runners, Biden and Sanders’s favorability ratings remained relatively unchanged, while Warren’s net favorability jumped 7 points. In fact, only O’Rourke faired better than Warren; his net favorability rating jumped nearly 9 points. But not all candidates made a positive impression. Castro’s net favorability, for instance, dropped by nearly 7 points this time, after getting a big boost in the first debate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-september-poll/

So, according to the reults in this 538 article, Warren was the clear winner overall.

[BeyondGeography]

1. She had a great, um, plan, and stuck to it

[squirecam]

2. But why?

Because she is explaining, not attacking.

The rest of the field could learn from this. Except Castro, who should simply quit after last nights backfire.

[TruckFump]

3. Do I ever agree about Castro.

He is toast...IMO.

[onetexan]

4. umm Joe was not attacking anybody. Some of the others were attacking him.

Also, i thought Joe rebutted each question directed at him very well. Including Castro's dastardly ageism.

Elizabeth could have done a better job answer how she was going to fund medicare for all. I wasn't at all satisfied with her answer, or Bernie's for that matter.

[Thekaspervote]

6. This!!

[CTyankee]

7. No, she didn't but I know her response already since she has talked about this again and again on

the campaign trail...about what part of the richest Americans she would tax...I can't do it for her here but you'll find it on her website and I am sure....

[BeyondGeography]

5. I knew she wasn't going to go after Biden

Pre-debate hype notwithstanding. Way too early for that. A lot of people were tuning in for the first time.

[HeartlandProgressive]

8. Warren did very well last night

She is very real and very capable.

[doc03]

9. Well I can't say. nt

[crazytown]

10. "Castro's net favorability, for instance, dropped by nearly 7 points"

Who would have guessed?