Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumMorning Consult Post Debate Poll: Biden 32%, Sanders 20%, Warren 18%, Harris 6%
Link to tweet
That seems a higher than normal sample size.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)Thatll get Biden down.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)And his lead over Warren 17% and Sanders16.8% is also down, now at +9.2
So, something is happening, no?
Looking at the trend on the RCP POLLS tracker, the primary race definitely seems to be tightening up.
But I am sure this will fluctuate some, we will have to wait and see what happens over the next few months.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)the trend is what the trend is.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)average happen to have historically been more bearish on Biden. The average on 538 has been a lot more stable.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Looking at the past 6 weeks of polling, Biden is shown fading.
Anyone can see the actual trend for themselves here:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Older polls are dropped, that is true, because they are , well, older.
But the polls that are regularly strong for Biden, like the MorningConsult Poll and the Hill/HarrisX poll are included in today's numbers.
The highly rated CNN poll is also included still today.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)9.2 now. That couple well be noise even with a large basket of responders. But feel free to dance around your house about it.
And the poll ratings dont matter. They arent indicative of predictive value if you bother reading up on how accurately theyve called races in past cycles.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)That's a 6% drop in Biden's actual support in 5 weeks.
The lead, which is also decreasing, is only the lead over the nearest rival, it does not show that BOTH Warren and Sanders have been gaining support while Biden has been fading significantly.
This is significant for future delegate counts in the up coming primaries.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)it only cuts his lead over his nearest rival about 1.5 points. Wait until a new Q poll or Harvard-Harris is factored in. Youll see that there's A lot of noise in the numbers.
They all show one guy on top, though. Ill be glad when Warren bows out and endorses Biden so that you can stop getting yourself all in a snit.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)How many HarrisX polls do you want to be counted in the polling average cycle?
The trend is what the trend is.
It will fluctuate, but clearly the trend over the last 6 weeks has seen Biden fading.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Thanks for the discussion, I think I have repeated some of these points now, so instead of repeating them again, I will assume my point has been presented. Thanks again for the discussion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)NT
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,755 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,325 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,755 posts)Go Joe go..weve got your back!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Biden 34% Sanders 21% Warren 13% Buttigieg 5% Harris 5 %
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Joe941
(2,848 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,755 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)They are now beating biden. That wasnt the case before...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Otto Lidenbrock
(581 posts)Because I don't see one dropping out until well into the race allowing a split progressive vote being concentrated into one.
Whereas those single digit candidates are more likely to drop out / run out of resources soon and they may prop up Biden further.
We'll wait and see.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,552 posts).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)the majority of his supporters go to Biden.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/430261-sanders-biden-seen-as-most-popular-second-choices-for-dem
ETA: Per this poll, it's Biden at 28%, Warren at 26%, and Harris at 10%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)I think he's made it clear that he intends to campaign thru until the convention.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)I'm sure you agree. Right?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Delegates will be won by candidates getting over 15% in a given primary.
So, Warren and Sanders total being greater that Biden's is HUGELY significant. It might mean that Biden won't be able to get a majority of the delegates and win the nomination outright.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)I can't do it. Your logic is so extremely perverted, there's no adequate rejoinder.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)If Biden, Sander, Warren and possibly others all stay in the race, those candidates getting over 15% in any given primary get delegates from that primary.
Right now, Biden, Warren and Sanders seem in position to do just that. If Warren and Sanders combined get more delegates than Biden, that means Biden would not have the needed majority of delegates won to get the nomination out right.
That seems pretty simple to understand.
A second ballot has not been needed to select a nominee in decades, but if Warren and Sanders combined get more delegates than Biden, one would be needed to select the nominee.
again...
But, in my opinion, I think that Warren will end up getting the majority of the delegates and win the nomination out right.
Time will tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)"If Warren and Sanders combined..." Are they co-candidates now?
Let's try very simple Boolean Algebra:
If Warren trails Biden
and
If Sanders trails Biden
then
Biden gets at least a plurality of delegates. No one claims a majority, and certainly not this mythical Warrensanders.
n.b.: The above is based on current polling, and excludes, for no apparent reason whatsoever, all of the other candidates in the race.
n.b. II: This post was written before the interlocutor's post was edited.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)You need an outright MAJORITY.
A candidate could win a MAJORITY outright in the primaries, then they are said to win the nomination "on the first ballot" at the convention since only elected pledged delegates can vote on the first ballot.
FAILING to get a MAJORITY on the first ballot means the convention goes to a SECOND ballot, where selected "super delegates", usually party officials, can also vote. Plus all the elected pledge delegates are then free to vote for any candidate they choose.
A PLURALITY never wins the nomination, you must get a MAJORITY one way or the other.
Honestly, this is pretty simple stuff.
THIS is why it matters if Warren and Sanders COMBINED support translates into a number of delegates greater than Biden's. That STOPS BIDEN from getting a majority of pledged delegates, meaning Biden can not win on the first ballot at the convention.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)How does this mythical Warrensanders win on any vote if Biden maintains a plurality roughly equal to or slightly behind the Warrensanders delegate total?
n.b., because it never hurts: In the case of a brokered convention... superdelegates. Remember those horrid establishment monsters?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Let me highlight it for you:
A candidate could win a MAJORITY outright in the primaries, then they are said to win the nomination "on the first ballot" at the convention since only elected pledged delegates can vote on the first ballot.
FAILING to get a MAJORITY on the first ballot means the convention goes to a SECOND ballot, where selected "super delegates", usually party officials, can also vote. Plus all the elected pledge delegates are then free to vote for any candidate they choose.
A PLURALITY never wins the nomination, you must get a MAJORITY one way or the other.
THIS is why it matters if Warren and Sanders COMBINED support translates into a number of delegates greater than Biden's. That STOPS BIDEN from getting a majority of pledged delegates, meaning Biden can not win on the first ballot at the convention.
For example, delegates originally pledged to Sanders could decide to vote on subsequent ballots for Warren, possibly giving her the majority.
After the first ballot, elected pledged delegates are not locked into their original candidate.
On the second ballot, and any subsequent ballots, super delegates can vote along with all the original pledged delegates, who would then be free to vote for any candidate they choose.
Balloting rounds continue until one candidate GETS A MAJORITY of delegates to vote for them.
Pretty simple, right?
But if this process still seems confusing, I would suggest that you contact your local Democratic Campaign office and ask if someone there could explain the nomination process in detail in person.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,755 posts)And Sanders indeed may go all the way to the convention, but he wont be the nominee, that support will go somewhere
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,755 posts)Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other
candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%
Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%
Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%
Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%
So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.
And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,552 posts)will drop out anyway.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,755 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)what I am not allowed to believe.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,755 posts)All the mean shallow comments..was beyond the pale
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,828 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Fascinating
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
peggysue2
(10,828 posts)Yeah, I think it gives us a better view of what's going on underneath those top numbers.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,233 posts)the AA community knows Joe, and we ain't going nowhere.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,828 posts)And the polls thus far prove your point. As well as proving that the Democratic Party is a lot larger than the screeching social media platforms and political pundits.
back.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skya Rhen
(2,701 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,247 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
peggysue2
(10,828 posts)Bernie has a pretty consistent edge with young voters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,154 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,828 posts)Think breaking down the numbers gives us an idea of how these numbers are playing out across the board.
Looking good for Joe!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,154 posts)RIP
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Maybe he did had an effect from the afterworld. What a dumb controversy.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,154 posts)And, whomever else tried t run with it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MadDAsHell
(2,067 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden