NBC/WSJ POLL: Warren leads on enthusiasm, best combined 1st and 2nd choice of any candidate.

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

1. Enthusiasm? Is that really worth polling? I would rather be leading the primary...

[bluewater]

3. In this case "enthusiasm" meant who was the first or second choice of the most voters

It's thought of as a leading indicator of changes in overall support as the field narrows.

[TwilightZone]

7. No, that's not what it means.

It's a separate category of polling.

Look at the original article for more info:

"Thirty-five percent of Democratic primary voters say they’re “enthusiastic” about Warren (which is up 9 points since June), another 35 percent are “comfortable” with her and just 6 percent are “very uncomfortable.”"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-biden-leads-dem-2020-field-warren-s-n1055511

[bluewater]

15. Ah, so Warren led on an enthusiasm question AND being either the 1st or 2nd choice of voters.

Thanks for pointing that out. I misinterpreted the tweet when she said:

The big news for Warren in this poll? She leads on enthusiasm, best combined 1st and 2nd choice of any candidate.

I looked, but NBC did not release the complete poll internals yet. The say they will shortly, and I will be looKing forward to seeing the complete stats on 1st and 2nd choices.

Thanks.

[OilemFirchen]

2. Also does best among female candidates in their seventies.

I love math!

[bluewater]

4. Here's some math showing the race tightening! Enjoy!

July: Sanders 13%, Warren 19% for a combined 32% vs Biden at 26%

Sept: Sanders 14%, Warren 25% for a combined 39% vs Biden at 31%

RCP POLLS shows Biden now at 27% average support with a lead own to +8.7

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

The race continues to tighten...

[OilemFirchen]

6. Oh my! The Warrensanders beast strikes again!

Très formidable!

[bluewater]

8. I believe the 8.7% average is just about the smallest lead Biden has had to date.

The RCP POLLS tracker shows the race continuing to tighten...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Très formidable, indeed!

[OilemFirchen]

11. I've never suggested that the race isn't tightening.

It is, and it's to be expected.

What, though, is this combo-candidate ridiculousness about? You're not the only one here to foist that bit of unscientific silliness upon us. Is someone feeding you this talking point?

[TwilightZone]

13. NBC News

The source in the original tweet is someone at NBC News. She's the one who came up with the first/second thing in relation to their own poll.

I think the various posters are sharing the same tweet, though I haven't looked at the other threads to confirm.

[OilemFirchen]

16. There's nothing wrong with a secondary choice poll.

That's not the same as combining binary results to come up with a new metric. It's not confusion, either This poster and others have played this game before.

It's intentional and looks like it's being directed to someone's supporters.

FTR, I really don't care. I just find it weird.

[bluewater]

17. Are you confused? Allow me to explain it again....

Why does it matter that Warren and Sanders combined Support continues to increase compared to Biden's?

It shows that Warren isn't just siphoning support from Sanders.

It means that Biden's support is fading while both Sanders and Warren are gaining support.

It illustrates why people say Biden is such a fragile front runner.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Hope that clears up any confusion you might continue to have on why it matters that Warren and Sanders combined support continues to increase compared to Biden's.

[TwilightZone]

21. It's an odd thing to focus on, I agree.

The problem isn't necessarily the metric. The problem is the completely faulty assertions being made as a result. It says nothing about Biden's lead or any trends or anything useful, really.

About all it does is put Warren in a positive light, which is fine.

[bluewater]

14. It shows that Warren isn't just siphoning support from Sanders.

It means that Biden's support is fading while both Sanders and Warren are gaining support.

It illustrates why people say Biden is such a fragile front runner.

Hope that clears up any confusion you might continue to have on why it matters that Warren and Sanders combined support continues to increase compared to Biden's.



Anyone can see the trends for themselves at RCP POLLS:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[OilemFirchen]

18. Yeah, no. We have no idea where supporters are coming from.

We do have an historical basis to believe that the majority of Sanders' limited supporters will never shift to Warren. Of course, that's anecdotal this year and certainly cannot be found one way or another in this poll.

Done playing amateur statistic analysis with you. G'night.

[bluewater]

19. "We have no idea where supporters are coming from."

Probably from the lower tier candidates and maybe some from Biden.



Both Warren and Sanders have been slowly trending upwards, with fluctuations of course, as Biden's support has been going down.

This is the trend RCP POLLS shows:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Enjoy your evening!

[Thekaspervote]

26. You are correct! "EW & sanders supporters has astoundingly little in common."

More at the link

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

[TwilightZone]

20. You might want to look at that again.

Your assertion has no basis in reality.

Biden has a higher average than he had three months ago.

The latest poll - the very one you're quoting in the OP - has him within a couple of points of his highest result in months.

The recent polls for Warren and Sanders are all over the place, especially Warren. The last six polls have her anywhere from 11 to 26.

I don't think the data says what you think it does. You might want to look at it again.

[bluewater]

22. um no... you need to look at the RCP POLLS chart a little more carefully.

"Biden has a higher average than he had three months ago."

No, On June 18th, Biden was at 32.4% average support, today he is at 27%.

Anyone can easily check that for themselves at RCP POLLS:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

To make it even easier to see this, click on the "3M", for 3 months, button at the bottom of the chart.

I hope that clears up any confusion you might have. Have a nice evening.



Oh, also, the solid green graphic at the very bottom of the chart tracks the average lead the top candidate had over time. That too shows a downward trend over the last 3 months.

[BlueMississippi]

10. D'accord

C'est incroyable!

[Funtatlaguy]

5. Her momentum continues 🙀

[bluewater]

24. Slow and steady wins the race ;)

It helps that Joe is coming back down to the field too.

[Blue_true]

25. The thing that impresses me is how well organized her national and state campaigns are.

To me, the organization points to her being a high quality leader.

[BlueMississippi]

9. She also leads among female Democratic senators from Massachusetts nt

[OilemFirchen]

12. That too.

She is, however, losing dramatically in the finger-waving contest. The good Senator needs to up her game.

[bluewater]

23. the polls are what the polls are

[evertonfc]

27. The AA vote

If the AA vote holds steady. It's over. I still think it's early. I shocked by how lousey Beto and Harris are polling. They are fresh faces. We could have a debate next year with two canidates in thier mid seventies.