This may be becoming a three-cornered fight

[nitpicker]

Nationwide polls suggest that Harris is sliding:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

Numbers indicate Harris is currently below the threshold to receive significant delegates:

https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus

[left-of-center2012]

1. This ...

"Harris's support has fallen dramatically since July,
losing 8 points,
the biggest drop of any candidate in the field."

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287283969

The latest national survey from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461827-biden-leads-in-new-national-poll-warren-close-behind-in-second-place

[George II]

2. Here's the four-day trend using RCP's average:

From September 15 to September 18

Biden 26.4 to 26.2 to 27.0 to 27.9 - up 1.5
Warren 16.6 to 17.0 to 18.3 to 17.7 - up 1.1
Sanders 17.0 to 16.8 to 16.3 to 16.1 - down 0.9

Everyone else is pretty much out.

The big factor is that these three add up to only about 60%, there are still 40% to account for.

[ritapria]

3. Bernie should have rested his voice before debate

The optics of having a horse voice hurt him in debate - causing a small drop in polls

[The Mouth]

5. Very good point. Optics and audio are pretty crucial.

In the Nixon Kennedy debates, a majority who listened thought Nixon won, a much bigger majority who watched on TV thought JFK won (technically, they were very evenly matched and not all that far apart on policy platforms, indeed JFK hammered RN on not being hardline enough).

I love that Bernie has moved the Overton window farther left, almost highhandedly, than anyone in a long time, even the people who dismiss his chances CAN'T dismiss his ideas.

[brooklynite]

4. No -- it's a two tiered, two-corner fight...

It is Biden (centrist) vs Warren (progressive), and below that it's Warren vs Sanders to BE the progressive to challenge Biden. Sanders isn't a part of competition until and unless he knocks Warren off her perch.

[crazytown]

6. Given all three are safely above 15% in major contests

It's a three cornered fight. Biden has to win more delegates than Sanders and Warren out together.

[Demsrule86]

7. No he doesn't. If the progressives want to split the vote that is on them...one of them should

drop out...it has happened before where a centrist candidate wins as progressives split the vote...what can't happen is awarding the nomination to either progressive candidate at the convention by combining their votes...brokered convention. The candidate that gets the most delegates win period...or we lose the election...especially when such a vote would most likely disenfranchise a large part of our party...AA voters as neither Warren nor Sanders can win this vote in sufficient numbers...Sanders and Warren are separate candidates and must run as such or one could drop out.