Warren on a roll, catches Biden in early primary/caucus states

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Sen. Elizabeth Warren is surging in the Democratic presidential race, catching or passing early front runner ex-Vice President Joe Biden according to polls from three early caucus and primary states.

The latest, a Monmouth University survey of New Hampshire voters, shows Warren with a 27-25% lead over Biden in the state that holds America's first presidential primary. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a big winner in 2016, has faded to third at 12%.

A weekend Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom survey pegged Warren at 22% to 20% for Biden, with Sanders at 11%. The Massachusetts senator had the highest approval rating among Iowa Democrats, and the greatest level of enthusiasm among her supporters.

Warren is gaining but has not yet caught Biden in Nevada, the earliest caucus state in the West, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today/Reno Gazette-Journal poll released on Tuesday. Biden is at 23%, Warren has 19%, with Sanders at 14%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/warren-on-a-roll-catches-biden-in-early-primary-caucus-states/ar-AAHMQYc

[George II]

1. So it looks like Warren and Biden will roughly split all the delegates in those three states....

...with everyone else getting shut out.

And as it's going now, Biden is the only one over 15% in South Carolina. So he'll get all the delegates.

[comradebillyboy]

2. If nothing changes between now and then. From here on out it's

a contest between Biden and Warren and I will happily vote for the winner. Our primary isn't til June so I won't have to choose between the two of them.

[jcgoldie]

5. Well thats not what the trendline suggests

...

[boomer_wv]

9. maybe

But there's just as much of a chance that she fades in that time as keeps advancing. Especially if news turns on her for a couple cycles as it tends to do with folks who get to the front of the pack.

Looking at the 2016 R primary, for examples, we at different points saw Carson, Cruz, and Rubio all approach Trumps position and even pass him at times, only to fall back to the pack.

[jcgoldie]

10. Not just as much chance

There's a reason she's surging and it has primarily to do with the candidate and not who the "news turns on."

[boomer_wv]

13. Not really.

Media drives a lot of voter preference. She hasnt been the focus of mich critical media for a while. With Bernie facing I expect him to start pressing that issue soon. Don't fall for that "we're friends" BS.

[jcgoldie]

14. Yeah ok

One candidate rises consistently in the polls while the other pretty much has kept the same numbers for months. Must be the media coverage...

[democratisphere]

3. It's a damn caucus. The most rigged voting method known to humankind

for selecting a Presidential primary candidate. Caucuses should be outlawed in every state. Talking about collusion in an election system. One person, one vote, without OUTSIDE PRESSURE AND INFLUENCE!

[FloridaBlues]

4. I would be shocked if Warren or Bernie didn't win neighboring home state. But her lead is small.

Bernie's not so much. Surprised about that one.

[BlueWI]

6. Is Delaware really that far from New Hampshire?

And is Massachusetts close to Iowa?

Why not give credit to Warren's well run campaign so far?

[Demsrule86]

7. New Hampshire is a bedroom community for Boston...she should win with big numbers.

[BlueWI]

11. You're kidding, right?

The state of New Hampshire is a bedroom community for Boston? So, they vote the same way as Boston? They're as diverse as Boston? Same cultural climate? Ok.

The Biden crowd on DU has turned pro at dismissing every trend, every poll, every news story other than those pertaining to Biden.

I'm pretty sure that New Hampshire is familiar with Biden. He was the vice president for 8 years and ran for president three times. So Biden has probably spent more time in New Hampshire than the Boston commuters.

[Tipperary]

12. Thank you.

[Demsrule86]

15. My daughter lived in a neighborhood where most of the couples commuted to Boston so yeah

it is almost a suburb of Boston...and it is a shared media market in part of the state too. It is right next door. EW should win with big numbers or I don't see her as a nominee.

[Demsrule86]

16. First of all, at best Warren is tied with Biden not ahead...and she is being pushed relentlessly...

I don't see her as the nominee...and looking at the polls makes me more convinced that she has a ceiling and will not be our nominee. And since I do not believe she wins a general...that makes me feel better. Yes, I would work my ass off and vote for her but she won't win WI, MI and PA...these are must win states in order to stop Trump.

[Demsrule86]

17. She is right next door and many work in Boston and other cities too. Delaware is seven hours and

and 30 minutes from New Hampshire...according to the provided link.

"Granite Staters Commute Longer Than Most, Paying Quarter Billion In Income Taxes To Massachusetts..."

https://stateimpact.npr.org/new-hampshire/2013/03/28/granite-staters-commute-longer-than-most-paying-quarter-billion-in-income-taxes-to-massachusetts/


"Delaware
Boston, Massachusetts
Driving Transit Walking Cycling
Map from Delaware to Boston, Massachusetts
7 h 30 min (401.8 mi) via I-95 N:

https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=how+far+is+boston+from+delaware&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

[BlueWI]

18. What an exercise in reductive thinking.

7 and a half hours from Delaware to New Hampshire. Boy, they probably need a telegraph or Pony Express to hear any news about Joe Biden in New Hampshire.

So why isn't Amy Kloubuchar winning in WI? She's only 90 minutes from where I live. She should be dominating the race here!

Perhaps my point is clear that there are more factors than proximity that play into a candidate's popularity.

Why is it so hard to acknowledge Warren's improvement in these early states without spin cycle going into overdrive? I can do that for Biden quite easily: Biden is leading other candidates in polling nationally and in South Carolina, and to this point he's probably the favorite for the nomination. How simple is that to say, even though I don't support Biden for the nomination!

While I prefer other candidates, I don't show up on every thread with diminishing statements. Being an honest partisan isn't that hard - I know some people really are hoping for Biden, so I will sometimes state my preferences for others or criticize Biden, but I don't make it a constant thing. Because we all, in the end, have reasonably similar politics, though there are differences too.

The insufferable attitude of the pro-Biden crowd lately is over the top on this site. I respect Biden for his distinctive record of service, but it's not Biden Underground.

[5starlib]

8. I love how South Carolina is conveniently left out

white privilege at it's finest.

[emmaverybo]

19. +1