*NEW * South Carolina Poll - Biden 36%, Warren 14%, Sanders 7%, Harris 4%

[Skya Rhen]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016d-6566-d8ed-a36d-edee7de90000


N=600, MOE +/-4.08 at 95% Confidence Interval Conducted from 9/18/19 to 9/20/19

[brush]

1. You listed Warren twice. Did you mean Harris for 4%?

[Skya Rhen]

5. OP corrected - thanks.

[flyingfysh]

2. what percentage did Warren get?

You put her in twice, at 14% and at 4%.

[customerserviceguy]

3. While I believe, at this point

that Joe Biden will win the SC primary, that may be in jeopardy if he does not do well in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Skya Rhen]

6. What people need to understand is that the AAs in SC loved Obama and loved Hillary, so they were

relieved to know that they could go with their heart (not just their head) and vote for Obama after he won Iowa, which strengthened his electability credentials.

As an AA, I have not gotten the slightest impression that SC AAs have that same kindred love for Warren, as they had toward Obama.

[George II]

8. Clinton won Iowa by less than 1%, lost NH by 22%, won South Carolina by 47%.

[Peacetrain]

9. Exactly...

[customerserviceguy]

11. If Joe Biden

comes in third, or a low second in both of those states, he may not have such a large margin in SC. He's going to need more than just wins in Southern states to keep his head above water as we go towards the convention.

[Demsrule86]

15. He is going to win in the Mid West, the South, the west and make a credible showing in

California...EW is getting some of the Sanders support but she is to far to the left in terms of policy to win the nomination. This is my prediction.

[Skya Rhen]

17. Your prediction is absolutely correct!

[Demsrule86]

20. Thank you Skya...

[customerserviceguy]

18. I have yet to see

anything stopping Sen. Warren's trajectory. However, at the next debate, she will be wearing the target.

[Demsrule86]

19. I don't see a trajectory...she is winning the so called progressive wing of the party who have

managed to convince themselves that past election wisdom concerning the importance of choosing a candidate who can win a general don't matter and Trump will be easy to beat...he won't be easy to beat...so she and Sanders are shuffling supporters and she got some of Harris's too...but in the end there are more moderates in this party and people who want to beat Trump period who will come out and vote. She also has a dismal showing in the most recent NC poll and I doubt very seriously either Iowa or New Hampshire will influence those voters...especially the way the delegate are falling at the moment. She will not be the nominee IMHO and since it is likely Trump can win WI, MI and PA should she run that is a good thing...of course I vote blue no matter who...so if I am wrong, she has my support.

[customerserviceguy]

23. Recent events will probably

accelerate her trend. I'm sure a lot more people think that Trump just got a lot easier to beat. The impeachment drama will play itself out for months, and by the time it is done, we may well have a nominee, or at least one who stands a good chance of surviving multiple ballots.

I agree, she's not going to do well in southern states. However, winning Iowa and New Hampshire would give her quite a boost going into Super Tuesday. I'm with you in thinking that she cannot beat Trump/Pence/Romney/whoever the GOP has on the ballot on Election Day, but the recent turn of events has appeared to work to her benefit in obtaining the nomination.

[Demsrule86]

16. Iowa and New Hampshire are two small white states...Iowa has an outdate caucus that doesn't

count most of the states voters...meaningless in my opinion. As for New Hampshire...it is next door to Mass...and Warren must do well there are it is over...as for Biden...those states are meaningless.

[NurseJackie]

4. The BS campaign continues its humiliating downhill run. He really had trouble in SC...

Biden 36%, Warren 14%, Sanders 7%, Warren 4%

The BS campaign continues its humiliating downhill run. He really had trouble in SC not long ago.

Remember his rally in North Charleston, SC not long ago? It had so LITTLE ethnic diversity that it looked like he could have been somewhere Vermont. In fact, based on the statistics, the demographics at that rally was even whiter than Vermont.

It's obvious that the AA and POC community are rejecting BS and the BS campaign. BS just doesn't connect with their community... their needs... their concerns. The BS message just isn't resonating. BS just doesn't get it when it comes to AA and POC.

All I'm saying is, with such a humiliating rejection by the AA and POC communities, and without their vote, BS doesn't stand a chance.

[peggysue2]

7. Another good one for Joe Biden

Keep an eye on the state tallies because this is where the delegate count comes from and will decide our ultimate nominee.

Deja vu all over again!

[Yoopy]

10. "43% of the respondents were interviewed on their cell phone"

Do other pollsters interview such a low percentage of cell phone users?

[Demsrule86]

14. Yes...hard to get cell phone numbers...landlines are in other polls too.

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. K&R

[Demsrule86]

13. but but the 'surge' squad says that EW is surging in NC and Biden's support is

crumbling... K&R

[Cha]

21. Good on South Carolina!

Mahalo, Skya!

[NurseJackie]

24. They were leading the pack in their rejection of the BS campaign...

... especially in the majority black city of North Charleston, SC... and in an historically-black church, those in attendance were less ethnically diverse than if they had been flown in from Vermont. AA and POC don't trust what the BS campaign is saying and offering... and BS can't connect.

How humiliating.

[BlueMississippi]

22. k&r nt