Bernie Sanders Is in Trouble

[brooklynite]

Politico

Though Sanders leads Trump in virtually every head-to-head national poll, the nebulous concept of "electability" has dogged him in a year in which many Democrats care more about defeating Trump than anything else. Surveys show Biden is winning the argument that he's the Democratic Party's surest bet in a general election, and Warren’s perceived electability among voters has risen faster than Sanders’.

But party operatives, and even some Sanders allies, aren’t convinced that the swing through Iowa was strategic. “Bernie has no idea how to right the ship and neither does anybody around him,” a Democratic activist with knowledge of the campaign says. “They don’t know where they’re going. They know things aren’t going well and they’re grasping at ideas.”

As Sanders has stagnated and Warren has soared, even some of the Vermont senator’s supporters are expressing alarm. Something is off, they say privately, adding to the chorus of people in establishment political circles saying the same thing. Maybe he should explain how he’s different from Warren — he has deliberately avoided any hint of criticism of her — or commit to out-organizing her in the early nominating states. Or perhaps he needs to make nice with the media and hire more seasoned pros. Or what about going all-in on Iowa?

The ideas from his volunteers, former aides, past delegates, steering committee members, and even some people within his campaign, vary. But they almost all come back to the same fundamental question, a question that has confounded the campaign since its earliest days: Can Bernie Sanders — a 78-year-old iconoclast whose entire identity is about standing firm in his beliefs, damn it — change?

[dlk]

1. They've already answered their own question

[NurseJackie]

2. "Bernie has no idea how to right the ship and neither does anybody around him,"

“Bernie has no idea how to right the ship and neither does anybody around him,”

Well... if he can't fix his own campaign, then the American people can't realistically expect him to be able to accomplish everything he's been promising, can they? I think this is a good object lesson.

All I'm saying is, when we look at how a campaign is being run... and the type of people that are hired (ie: Stein supporters Sirota and Turner, among others)... it gives voters a pretty good idea of what a BS administration might be like (and they're not liking it apparently.)

I do know that the BS messaging isn't resonating, nor is it impressing the AA and other POC communities, and in that regard he's ALSO doing extremely poorly. Fact of the matter is, anyone who cannot get the support of the AA/POC voters will most certainly NOT be our party's nominee.

[Codeine]

8. As simple as that. nt

[George II]

44. He has the wrong people at the top of the campaign. They alienate more voters than....

....they attract.

Imagine a political campaign that openly insults (and offends) those who don't agree with them.

Check the tweets of Nina Turner, Briahna Gray, and David Sirota.

[NurseJackie]

45. "Check the tweets of Nina Turner, Briahna Gray, and David Sirota."

Check the tweets of Nina Turner, Briahna Gray, and David Sirota.

I have... and they're disgusting. Highly inflammatory. Insulting. Those three just can't let go of the past. They all three hate the Democratic party... and it shows.

Of course loyal Democrats are going to be pissed off that shit stunts like that. And it just boggles my mind that they believe this is the way to attract more voters to support, donate, volunteer and vote for Democrats. THEY ARE CHASING THEM AWAY.

Those three are under the sadly mistaken notion that their far left fringe philosophy represents the 'base' of the party... and that's simply NOT true. The actual BASE OF THE PARTY are the ones who do all those things I mentioned above. They support, volunteer, donate, leather-to-the-pavement, phone calls, flyers, meetings... but most importantly... THE BASE VOTES!!!

As we've seen many times in the past, what they call "the base" doesn't vote. They're NOT reliable. And everything those three say or do only convinces them that the party is "corrupt" (it isn't).

I hate all three of them (four if you include Sarandon) for all the negativity they create. Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

All I'm saying is... none of those things serve any good purpose. So why do they continue to do them? Why?

[George II]

46. Add Jacobin Magazine to that group, too:

Link to tweet

[yardwork]

61. The Jacobin writer made a foolish and ignorant statement.

"...nothing will change in foreign policy." It's laughably ignorant. For one thing, Sanders' foreign policy positions are actually similar to Trump's in many ways.

[NurseJackie]

62. Ain't THAT the truth!

All I'm saying is that my vote will be a vote for CHANGE. I simply cannot abide ANY candidate who isn't opposed to sanctions for Russia. (BS is opposed to Russian sanctions and that is disqualifying, in my view. Russia is our enemy!)

[calguy]

55. He has the wrong people at the top of the campaign

because the right people want nothing to do with his campaign.

[betsuni]

5. [phone]

[NurseJackie]

6. You're right.

[Skidmore]

4. Sanders is suitable

to give a speech but ill suited to be in charge of the nation, IMHO.

[TidalWave46]

7. I think this is a fair assessment. NT

[NurseJackie]

16. You are correct about that. Excellent description...

You are correct about that. Excellent description... it may ruffle some feathers but it's entirely factual. He doesn't have the temperament or demeanor that's needed to be the Leader of the Free World. Speech-making at college-town rallies is not the same as leading... nor is it a good yardstick to determine if someone possesses the qualities needed for leading a nation.

[demigoddess]

60. that is what I think of him.

[MontanaFarmer]

9. His strategy nor his tactics

have changed since 2016. Other folks have co-opted some of his strongest points (income inequality, rigged system, health care) and are making their own hay with them. That's to his credit, to a degree, for elevating those issues, but he's never been a particularly good candidate for president and was never going to actually BE president, IMO. I wish we could package up the good stuff from Bernie (because there is some) and repurpose it into someone with more political talent, more mainstream appeal, less rough edges. Oh, wait, that candidate exists and she's on the rise...

[BlueMississippi]

10. BS built a warship

and equipped it with major guns like David Sirota, Nina Turner, Brihana Joy-Grey, Susan Sarandon and others. Furthermore, the ship has only one navigator -- BS -- it goes on a pre-planned route of populist messages and in lieu of engines, it was supposed to propel itself by throwing trillion dollar giveaways from the stern without any legislative plan. The navigator won't change the course even while approaching rough seas or shoals or cliffs.

“Bernie has no idea how to right the ship and neither does anybody around him,” a Democratic activist with knowledge of the campaign says. “They don’t know where they’re going. They know things aren’t going well and they’re grasping at ideas.”

Even an amateur ship-builder knows that a ship's most important faculties are staying afloat, propel and navigate. Guns and living quarter decorations are secondary.

The plan of building a warship was flawed. A primary requires a speedboat with more message drivers and fewer guns - after all, the battle is against your fellow Democrats and no guns should be necessary. It is supposed to be genteel like America's cup and not like the British naval war against the Spanish armada.

The bottom line is clear. Someone who makes these mistakes is not qualified to be POTUS.

[NurseJackie]

12. The type of candidate that I can easily support is someone that can

Generally speaking (of course) the type of candidate that I can easily support is someone that can do more than "hate the Democrats" and "complain about the Democratic party". Anyone who does such a thing has a very narrow and misguided focus or obsession and he (or she) is making a mistake.

Instead, the type of candidate that I can easily support will show their loyalty to the Democratic party and that they embrace the party and its ideals (rather than wanting to "destroy and rebuild" the party in the name of some type of "revolution" bullshit).

The winning candidate will be able to show his (or her) LOVE OF COUNTRY along with realistic plans (not empty and impossible promises of rainbows and unicorns).

What I'm saying is that anger and hatred of Trump... AND of Democrats AND of the Democratic party isn't enough. Anyone can create a "laundry list" of everything that's wrong with America. That's NO accomplishment. And a list of what's wrong is NOT a list of workable and realistic solutions either.

The candidate who gets my confidence isn't the one who tells me what "what we gotta do" without having a plan of how it's going to happen and how it's going to get paid for.

[Thekaspervote]

56. Oh so true...about hating Dems... why doesn't he see how that hurts him?

Blinded by his own ideas

[NurseJackie]

24. The target of the warship has been wrong too...

The plan of building a warship was flawed.

The target of the warship has been wrong too. It's been an ongoing mistake to continually target Democrats and the Democratic party with the lies and smears about how the Democratic party is "corrupt" (it isn't) or how Democrats are "ideologically bankrupt" (we aren't) or that the Democratic party is "the party of the one percent" (it isn't) or that Democrats "don't care about climate change" (we do) or that the Democratic party is "an absolute failure" (it isn't) or that Democrats are "do-nothings" (we aren't) or that the Democratic party is the "party of the elite" (it isn't).

So much effort being spent ATTACKING and SMEARING and aiming the cannons at the Democratic Party! What a mistake that is!!

All I'm saying is that these things serve NO good purpose at all. It only generates negativity. Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

[BlueMississippi]

33. It demoralizes Democrats and helps Trump win

One sometimes wonders if that is the ultimate goal.

[NurseJackie]

36. It's right in line with the Cenk Uygur and "Justice Democrats" philosophy...

It's right in line with the Cenk Uygur and "Justice Democrats" philosophy, which is one that seeks to "destroy" the Democratic party so that some cockeyed "revolution" can take place and "restore" the party to some far-left extreme version that they fantasize about.

[BlueMississippi]

38. Cenk Uygur gets paid in rubles nt

[aikoaiko]

11. Bernie is not in trouble, but Bernie is achieving his goal

Last edited Mon Sep 30, 2019, 09:42 AM - Edit history (1)

His goal was to present his vision of leadership for the country and gain support for it.

I realize that many think candidates should keep changing what they say until they win, but that is not in Bernie's ethic.

Almost every Bernie supporter I know likes Bernie for this reason (even those who support other candidates).

[NurseJackie]

14. LOL! So, you're saying that he doesn't actually want to be our party's nominee?

Bernie is not in trouble, but Bernie is achieving is goal

So, you're saying that he doesn't actually want to be our party's nominee?

His goal was to present his vision of leadership for the country and gain support for it.

Ah... okay. So he just wants to use the process as a "platform" to get his "message" out... but he really doesn't have any serious notion of becoming our party's nominee? --- Well, I guess that makes sense. It certainly helps to explain a lot.

I realize that many think candidates should keep changing what they say until they win, but that is not in Bernie's ethic

Who thinks that? Who are the "many" who think such a thing?

[aikoaiko]

20. I know its difficult for some to understand.

Its ok.

Yes, Bernie wants to be our party's nominee, but with support for his vision of America. I know that is incomprehensible to some people.

[NurseJackie]

22. That's clearly NOT going to happen, therefore...

Yes, Bernie wants to be our party's nominee, but with support for his vision of America.

Interesting qualifier. Nevertheless, that's clearly NOT going to happen, therefore he's NOT "achieving his goal". Noting this simple fact, it simply makes no good sense for his campaign to pretend and say things to suggest that "this was his plan all along".

Fact of the matter is, he's losing. His campaign can't gain a foothold, he doesn't have enough support from the AA and POC voters. His poll numbers in key states continues to crater and nosedive. Everyone (including BS) knows that he's not going to be our party's nominee... they just won't admit it out loud in public.

[aikoaiko]

23. He doesn't have to admit it because we have a primary system to determine it.

If Bernie's support dwindles the money and polls numbers will dry up and he'll go away just like the other candidates who dropped out.

Until then, he's entitled to make his case even if it bothers some people.

This is what Democracy looks like.

[NurseJackie]

27. His campaign is in trouble... nothing you've said refutes that.

His campaign is in trouble... nothing you've said refutes that. People can make all the excuses they want, and they can try to re-frame and re-define the argument. They can try to justify what he's doing or make excuses for his embarrassingly low poll numbers (particularly with the AA/POC community)... but nothing at all changes the fact that he's not going to be our party's nominee.

Until then, he's entitled to make his case even if it bothers some people.

Irrelevant. This has nothing to do with the topic at hand... that "Bernie Sanders Is in Trouble".

This is what Democracy looks like.

I know!

[aikoaiko]

29. Why would I be disappointed when I'm getting what I want?

[NurseJackie]

31. Well, he certainly won't be our party's nominee. Thanks for clarifying that's what you want.

Why would I be disappointed when I'm getting what I want?

Well, he certainly won't be our party's nominee. Thanks for clarifying that's "what you want."

[Falcata]

37. Neither will yours

[NurseJackie]

39. Thankfully, my current choice doesn't smear and denigrate the party.

[qazplm135]

30. who said they were bothered about making his case?

He can make whatever case he wants. If he wants to win, he probably should change some stuff.

If he doesn't, then he should keep on keeping on.

[NurseJackie]

40. Thank you! You're right. Absolutely NOBODY said that...

You're right. Absolutely NOBODY said that. Thank you for not letting that one change the subject by injecting irrelevant arguments that are in "response" to things never said. That type of tactic is an indicator that someone is arguing from a position of weakness, so they avoid direct responses and try to distract from the actual topic at hand. That topic being "Bernie Sanders Is in Trouble" (as the OP explains.)

[BlueMississippi]

34. His making a "case" should not include smearing other Democrats

by using his Jill-Stein-voting leadership and surrogates like Sarandon.

He can make a case without attacking other candidates. Look at Joe Biden and Sen. Warren -- they have not attacked other Democrats and are thus leading.

[honest.abe]

42. I think Bernie's ultimate goal is to take the Democratic party down and rebuild it in his image.

And I think many of his supporters want that too. That is very dangerous goal as it weakens the party and helps the Republicans as we saw in 2016.

[Gothmog]

53. I doubt that sanders will be succesful in these efforts

There are far too many Democrats who have good memories and these real democrats will not forgive or forget

[Gothmog]

51. Is sanders still counting on a contested convention to get the nomination?

From the Political Wire-- https://politicalwire.com/2019/04/18/how-bernie-sanders-thinks-hell-win-nomination/

The Atlantic: “He’s counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, where he was already surprisingly strong in 2016, and hoping that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris will split the black electorate in South Carolina and give him a path to slip through there, too. And then, Sanders aides believe, he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.”

Link to tweet

[PhoenixDem]

13. Not surprised at all

Unlike 2016, BS has strong opposition this time and media are vetting him a lot more. People are realizing that BS's wish-list will never become policy and he doesn't have the horse-power to get any of his plans through congress.

[njhoneybadger]

15. It's called overexposure

He has been running the never ending president campaign for four years. To a lot of people he sounds like the teacher from the Charlie Brown movies

[NurseJackie]

17. Womm-whah-whommm? Whomp-womm.

It does get repetitive, doesn't it. Easy to tune out so much negativity toward Democrats and the smears and attacks on the Democratic party. That type of negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

[njhoneybadger]

21. Yes it does

[PhoenixDem]

18. Trudat

Even Geico changes its commercials to prevent monotony and overexposure.

[NYMinute]

19. K&R nt

[stopbush]

25. Ds have too many real Ds to choose from this time around

to bother with Sanders.

[JoeOtterbein]

26. Please note:

Bernie Sanders Is in Trouble
Up close and personal with a candidate in decline — and seemingly stuck in his ways.

By HOLLY OTTERBEIN September 30, 2019

Don't forget the writers!

[NurseJackie]

28. "Up close and personal with a candidate in decline -- and seemingly stuck in his ways."

"Up close and personal with a candidate in decline — and seemingly stuck in his ways."

Well-worded. That's exactly how I (and many) see him. Only, for obvious reasons, I choose not to be so blunt about it.

[BlueMississippi]

35. Perhaps a reference to evolutionary biology would be a helpful addition

Species that fail to evolve with times, food sources and habitat become extinct fast.

[Gothmog]

49. Again, you should be proud of your daughter

As a father, I understand your pride and approve of your daughter's article.

[JoeOtterbein]

50. Thanks bro! You know I'll point out that Holly wrote it every time!

What else?

[Gothmog]

52. You are a father

I understand being a proud father

[JoeOtterbein]

54. + a googleplex!!!!

[customerserviceguy]

32. His voice

during the last debate made him seem way older than he has before. I don't know if a more solid performance during the next debate will change things for him or not. EW seems to have (as Bush the Elder called it) "the big mo."

[NurseJackie]

43. No comment.

But I will say that you're not alone in those observations.

[onetexan]

41. way past time to pack it in uncle Bernie

[Blue_true]

47. I lived through a business failure.

One thing that I learned, if you don't have plenty of money in reserve, the business is dead, the only question is when does it die.

The campaign reports that will come out in a few days likely will show that Senator Sanders fundraising has dried up some, while Senator Warren has taken in a record amount.

Senator Sanders is likely running out of the monetary resources needed to save his campaign. The question now is how much longer his campaign lasts.

On a philosophical note, in any effort it is a bad idea to surround yourself with the same type of people. Senator Sanders surrounded himself with senior staff that all had a vengeance complex, taking vengeance on those they believe did them wrong in 2016 seemed to be their primary objective.

[Trenzalore]

48. He isn't running a rock throwing campaign against Hillary Clinton this time

Mind you, he lost the rock throwing campaign last time, badly.

I'll vote for whoever the nominee is but Bernie is in last place with me for how he has behaved the past 4 years.

[Ba2020]

57. The ship has sailed

I was a big fan of him in 2016. I think he and especially Biden are past their prime time.

[ritapria]

58. Let us Be Fair

All candidates not named Liz Warren are struggling ...Not just Bernard

[dawg day]

59. What I've enjoyed watching Warren and Beto (and even Biden but esp Warren) is how they adapt

Warren especially. Here's a Harvard professor senator wonk, and she gets to Iowa, and she realizes the concerns there are different... but most important, figures out how they relate to her main policy themes.

The ability to stay true to yourself but adapt to your audience is very useful in a campaign. Think of Obama. He was/is always himself, but he always showed respect for those he was talking to and took the time to figure out how he could adapt his message to address what was important to them.
It might sound like manipulation but it really is respect.

(I think in the future, like we think of Churchill as the man who could change the world with a speech, we'll think of Obama as probably the best campaigner.)

Now as for Sanders, there's that point-- Can a candidate stand firm and true and also adapt? Without feeling like it's selling out?

(But he's still polling pretty well. We'll have to see the polls as the impeachment gets underway, as it becomes more likely it won't be Trump on the other side.)

[Joe941]

63. We've been told that Bernie is in trouble from the start. Not buying it.

[brooklynite]

64. Of course, voters apparently aren't buying Bernie....

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[Hortensis]

65. AND our convention could be sabotaged anyway. Sanders won't

have to drop out because he has a lot of money, no matter how poorly he does, and can hang in until no one's listening any more.

We should expect from grim experience that he will use that money to agitate against the left. It's hard to understand how he can see little difference between Democrats and Republicans, or why, that being the case, the left gets almost all his special brand of attention. But that's Sanders.

BUT, one the plus side, he might be sidelined at the convention and thus get relatively little press attention. Every primary he doesn't get 15% in means 0 delegates. If he doesn't accumulate and bring 300 delegates so they can put his name in nomination, certainly no one else will. He'll mostly just be there as one in a crowd of superdelegates.

Goals to strive for.