Nate Silver is a joke

[Hassin Bin Sober]

Re: Teh Bernie Sanders massive fundraising haul

Link to tweet

[Renew Deal]

1. Silver is right

There is a difference between presidential campaigns and house campaigns. The joke is that some people don't understand that.

[NurseJackie]

7. You're correct about that.

The joke is that some people don't understand that.

You're correct about that. So in frustration and desperation, they attack the messenger while ignoring the facts that do not comport with the narrative to which many are emotionally attached and invested.

Fact of the matter is, BS will not be our party's nominee. The AA/POC voters are not with him (as we've seen so clearly) and without that support, he may as well go home. There can be no denying that AA/POC voters will be very important in choosing our party's nominee.

I mean... just consider this: BS can't even get AA/POC voters to attend a BS rally held at a BLACK church in a MAJORITY BLACK city.

Of course, I'm referring to his rally in North Charleston, SC not long ago. It had so LITTLE ethnic diversity that it looked like he could have been somewhere Vermont. In fact, based on the statistics, the demographics at that rally was even whiter than Vermont.

It's obvious that the AA and POC community are rejecting BS and the BS campaign. BS just doesn't connect with that community. The BS message just isn't resonating.

All I'm saying is, with such a humiliating rejection by the AA and POC communities, and without their vote, BS doesn't stand a chance. Everyone knows it.

These fundraising numbers are not the same as actual votes (which he cannot muster) and without them, he won't be our party's nominee. That's all I'm saying.

[Hortensis]

19. The solid Democratic base of all colors and ethnicities isn't with him.

Of course. People who vote strongly for Democratic values against Republican corruption really don't like to be called Republicans.

Further, even his avowed supporters have poor turnout records in the primaries. And then some. Coming home to family activities after work correlates a lot better with voting than going to rallies in college towns. Many aren't even registered to vote, and of course others aren't registered Democrat in states where that's required.

Wish I had a figure for that, but if he's tied with another candidate he's actually behind by a few to several percentage points.

[left-of-center2012]

2. Can't read it ???

[TheRickles]

4. Click on each section

and drag it off to the side - the rest of the column becomes visible.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Silver's a solid pollster

though I think his big outside the box calls are behind him.

[jcgoldie]

5. He's not a pollster at all

He aggregates and analyzes polls. And he's the best at what he does in my opinion.

[sharedvalues]

28. He's a terrible political analyst

And a solid pollster, I agree.

He should stop the analysis.

Most egregiously, he seems to be unaware of the influence of rightwing media and takes all their lies at face value. He just accepts that Fox viewers believe lies and he thinks it’s ok — or at least never questions it. Had to give up on his podcast because of this problem.

[ritapria]

6. Silver is letting his political preferences cloud his judgement

[honest.abe]

8. Those comments would seem to be in conflict but I think they are both correct in the examples given.

The comment about taking over the House is more a general statement about the value of fundraising. The comment about Sanders fundraising is more specific relating to a Presidential campaign where we have lots of other information, eg detailed and repeated polling, that provides more accurate prediction of a candidate's success.

[BlueMississippi]

9. I see no contradiction there.

One tweet defines relative predictive value of total fundraising.
The other tweet defines the value of small donations vs large donations.

But Nate Silver is under the bus because he didn't write flowery praise and effusive sermons worshiping the modern messiah.

[Amimnoch]

10. "taking back the House" vs Presidential elections.

Anyone who thinks they can equate the 2 is who's the Joke.

[NurseJackie]

13. Yes. This. Thank you.

[scheming daemons]

11. Nate is right.... and Bernie has almost no shot of winning the Dem nomination

he has a hard ceiling of about 20% of the Democratic primary electorate.... and it doesn't matter how much money he raises.... he has 100% name recognition, and there are no new voters for him to get that he doesn't already have.


He will languish between 2nd and 3rd place in every poll for the remainder of the nomination fight.


Though Buttigieg is who I'm leaning toward.... this nomination is actually Warren's to lose. She is the only one really increasing her share of the primary electorate.

Biden and Sanders have pretty much hit their ceilings.

[NurseJackie]

14. Great observations, descriptions and explanations.

I'm with you. This is not Bernie's year. It's not his turn. This was his "last chance" and he's not entitled to anything. He needs to go back to Vermont and just be satisfied with being a senator. (And if possible, it would be nice if he stops smearing and attacking the Democratic party... that's not helping.)

[LanternWaste]

12. "Disqualifying...!!!"

Or something equally simplistic and without substance.

[TidalWave46]

15. I have found that he often delivers great analysis.

I appreciate what he does.

Some people really enjoy looking for people to hate. It's a personality issue.

Fearing the truth is not on Nate.

[brooklynite]

16. The principles behind Primaries and General Elections are different.

[TwilightZone]

17. Congressional and Presidential campaigns are two different things.

[Politicub]

20. The graphic is illegible. What's the current outrage about?

Did someone share an opinion or something?

[TidalWave46]

22. Can't you just be outraged without asking questions?

Your wanting to know anything here is outrageous.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

25. Do you need a tutorial on links and cursors?

[Celerity]

21. Jacobin

[comradebillyboy]

23. Nate Silver triggers the Sanders camp. Bigly...

[Skid Rogue]

24. sometimes I don't like what Nate Silver says....

but he's better at this than most of us.

[BeckyDem]

26. The boy genious who never saw Trump coming.

pffft to him.

[lapucelle]

27. Nate Silver is mean.

[Gothmog]

29. I agree with Nate