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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 10:26 AM

 

Nate Silver is a joke

Re: Teh Bernie Sanders massive fundraising haul







If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

29 replies, 2881 views

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Arrow 29 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver is a joke (Original post)
Hassin Bin Sober Oct 2019 OP
Renew Deal Oct 2019 #1
NurseJackie Oct 2019 #7
Hortensis Oct 2019 #19
left-of-center2012 Oct 2019 #2
TheRickles Oct 2019 #4
bucolic_frolic Oct 2019 #3
jcgoldie Oct 2019 #5
sharedvalues Oct 2019 #28
ritapria Oct 2019 #6
honest.abe Oct 2019 #8
BlueMississippi Oct 2019 #9
Amimnoch Oct 2019 #10
NurseJackie Oct 2019 #13
scheming daemons Oct 2019 #11
NurseJackie Oct 2019 #14
LanternWaste Oct 2019 #12
TidalWave46 Oct 2019 #15
brooklynite Oct 2019 #16
TwilightZone Oct 2019 #17
elocs Oct 2019 #18
Politicub Oct 2019 #20
TidalWave46 Oct 2019 #22
Hassin Bin Sober Oct 2019 #25
Celerity Oct 2019 #21
comradebillyboy Oct 2019 #23
Skid Rogue Oct 2019 #24
BeckyDem Oct 2019 #26
lapucelle Oct 2019 #27
Gothmog Oct 2019 #29

Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 10:29 AM

1. Silver is right

 

There is a difference between presidential campaigns and house campaigns. The joke is that some people don't understand that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 11:10 AM

7. You're correct about that.

 

The joke is that some people don't understand that.
You're correct about that. So in frustration and desperation, they attack the messenger while ignoring the facts that do not comport with the narrative to which many are emotionally attached and invested.

Fact of the matter is, BS will not be our party's nominee. The AA/POC voters are not with him (as we've seen so clearly) and without that support, he may as well go home. There can be no denying that AA/POC voters will be very important in choosing our party's nominee.

I mean... just consider this: BS can't even get AA/POC voters to attend a BS rally held at a BLACK church in a MAJORITY BLACK city.

Of course, I'm referring to his rally in North Charleston, SC not long ago. It had so LITTLE ethnic diversity that it looked like he could have been somewhere Vermont. In fact, based on the statistics, the demographics at that rally was even whiter than Vermont.

It's obvious that the AA and POC community are rejecting BS and the BS campaign. BS just doesn't connect with that community. The BS message just isn't resonating.

All I'm saying is, with such a humiliating rejection by the AA and POC communities, and without their vote, BS doesn't stand a chance. Everyone knows it.

These fundraising numbers are not the same as actual votes (which he cannot muster) and without them, he won't be our party's nominee. That's all I'm saying.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #7)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 04:51 PM

19. The solid Democratic base of all colors and ethnicities isn't with him.

 

Of course. People who vote strongly for Democratic values against Republican corruption really don't like to be called Republicans.

Further, even his avowed supporters have poor turnout records in the primaries. And then some. Coming home to family activities after work correlates a lot better with voting than going to rallies in college towns. Many aren't even registered to vote, and of course others aren't registered Democrat in states where that's required.

Wish I had a figure for that, but if he's tied with another candidate he's actually behind by a few to several percentage points.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 10:30 AM

2. Can't read it ???

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to left-of-center2012 (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 10:36 AM

4. Click on each section

 

and drag it off to the side - the rest of the column becomes visible.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 10:34 AM

3. Silver's a solid pollster

 

though I think his big outside the box calls are behind him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 10:48 AM

5. He's not a pollster at all

 

He aggregates and analyzes polls. And he's the best at what he does in my opinion.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 09:24 PM

28. He's a terrible political analyst

 

And a solid pollster, I agree.

He should stop the analysis.

Most egregiously, he seems to be unaware of the influence of rightwing media and takes all their lies at face value. He just accepts that Fox viewers believe lies and he thinks itís ok ó or at least never questions it. Had to give up on his podcast because of this problem.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 11:06 AM

6. Silver is letting his political preferences cloud his judgement

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 11:10 AM

8. Those comments would seem to be in conflict but I think they are both correct in the examples given.

 

The comment about taking over the House is more a general statement about the value of fundraising. The comment about Sanders fundraising is more specific relating to a Presidential campaign where we have lots of other information, eg detailed and repeated polling, that provides more accurate prediction of a candidate's success.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 11:14 AM

9. I see no contradiction there.

 

One tweet defines relative predictive value of total fundraising.
The other tweet defines the value of small donations vs large donations.

But Nate Silver is under the bus because he didn't write flowery praise and effusive sermons worshiping the modern messiah.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 11:15 AM

10. "taking back the House" vs Presidential elections.

 

Anyone who thinks they can equate the 2 is who's the Joke.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Amimnoch (Reply #10)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 03:26 PM

13. Yes. This. Thank you.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 01:03 PM

11. Nate is right.... and Bernie has almost no shot of winning the Dem nomination

 


he has a hard ceiling of about 20% of the Democratic primary electorate.... and it doesn't matter how much money he raises.... he has 100% name recognition, and there are no new voters for him to get that he doesn't already have.


He will languish between 2nd and 3rd place in every poll for the remainder of the nomination fight.


Though Buttigieg is who I'm leaning toward.... this nomination is actually Warren's to lose. She is the only one really increasing her share of the primary electorate.

Biden and Sanders have pretty much hit their ceilings.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to scheming daemons (Reply #11)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 03:29 PM

14. Great observations, descriptions and explanations.

 

I'm with you. This is not Bernie's year. It's not his turn. This was his "last chance" and he's not entitled to anything. He needs to go back to Vermont and just be satisfied with being a senator. (And if possible, it would be nice if he stops smearing and attacking the Democratic party... that's not helping.)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 02:49 PM

12. "Disqualifying...!!!"

 

Or something equally simplistic and without substance.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 03:57 PM

15. I have found that he often delivers great analysis.

 

I appreciate what he does.

Some people really enjoy looking for people to hate. It's a personality issue.

Fearing the truth is not on Nate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 04:00 PM

16. The principles behind Primaries and General Elections are different.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 04:00 PM

17. Congressional and Presidential campaigns are two different things.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)


Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 04:57 PM

20. The graphic is illegible. What's the current outrage about?

 

Did someone share an opinion or something?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Politicub (Reply #20)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 06:03 PM

22. Can't you just be outraged without asking questions?

 

Your wanting to know anything here is outrageous.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Politicub (Reply #20)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 08:48 PM

25. Do you need a tutorial on links and cursors?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 06:02 PM

21. Jacobin

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 07:37 PM

23. Nate Silver triggers the Sanders camp. Bigly...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 08:42 PM

24. sometimes I don't like what Nate Silver says....

 

but he's better at this than most of us.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 09:04 PM

26. The boy genious who never saw Trump coming.

 

pffft to him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 09:04 PM

27. Nate Silver is mean.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 11:23 PM

29. I agree with Nate

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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