My crystal ball on Bernie and Mayor Pete

[Funtatlaguy]

For several months now, I have thought that our decision would and should come down to a choice between Biden or Warren. I think they both well represent the two wings of our party and I think either would beat Trump.

However, I don’t see the field clearing to give them a one on one battle at least until after Super Tuesday and probably not even then. Bernie has a rock solid base of 15-20% and Mayor Pete is flush with cash.

The only fly in my progosticative ointment would be if either Biden or Warren swept 🧹 all 4 or even 3-4 of the early primaries. But, I don’t see that happening.
What I do see happening is that if a candidate doesn’t make the December debate, they will probably have to drop out. So we may only have 5-6 on the ballot in Iowa. Would be very interesting to see where those 3-4% candidates followers move.

[beastie boy]

1. Despite Biden's steady lead so far, the race is extremely fluid. I wish I had a crystal ball.

I clearly have my preference, but I cannot not venture to predict a winner. Not too long ago Harris was favorite to surpass Bernie and even Warren. Not too long ago Biden was consistently 15-20 points ahead of anyone else. Not too long ago Buttigieg was just a funny name. The chess pieces are moving, and that's what makes it interesting.

It is safe to say that alliances will be made between candidates, including top candidates. This will probably define the field more than the candidates who drop out, but I agree, it is not likely to happen until Super Tuesday. A lot also depends on how Republican candidates will do on Super Tuesday, and on the implications the outcomes of the GOP races, especially for Senate republicans, will have on Trump's impeachment and conviction prospects after the pressure of being "primaried" is lifted off the GOP candidates. This will certainly impact the democratic race, although I don't know how.

I've got my popcorn ready!

[ritapria]

2. No one knows what is going to happen

That is what makes this race so fascinating to observe ….In 2016 Hillary was the overwhelming favorite to win …….

[UniteFightBack]

3. Who is your second choice? nt

[ritapria]

4. Joe Biden

Liz would make a fine President ...I am concerned she won't be able to defeat Trump

[UniteFightBack]

5. Same. nt

[Funtatlaguy]

6. Why might I ask do you feel this way. All polling shows top 3 all would.

[cwydro]

9. Yes she would.

Why don’t you think she can?

[iwannaknow]

7. Bernie or Kamala

[beastie boy]

8. Warren is my second choice, especially if, as I expect, she starts speaking to mainstream Democrats

towards the end of the race.