Warren Leads Tight Iowa Race as Biden Fades, Poll Finds (Wa 22, Sa 19, Bu 18, Bi 17)

[brooklynite]

New York Times

The top Democratic presidential candidates are locked in a close race in the 2020 Iowa caucuses, with Senator Elizabeth Warren slightly ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Ms. Warren appears to have solidified her gains in the first voting state while Mr. Buttigieg has climbed quickly to catch up with Mr. Sanders and overtake Mr. Biden, the onetime front-runner. Ms. Warren is drawing support from 22 percent of likely caucusgoers, while Mr. Sanders is at 19 percent, followed by Mr. Buttigieg at 18 percent and Mr. Biden at 17 percent.

The survey is full of alarming signs for Mr. Biden, who entered the race in April at the top of the polls in Iowa and nationally. He is still in the lead in most national polls, but his comparatively weak position in the earliest primary and caucus states now presents a serious threat to his candidacy. And Mr. Biden’s unsteadiness appears to have opened a path in the race for other Democrats closer to the political middle, particularly Mr. Buttigieg.

The poll reveals a race in flux but not in disarray, framed by a stark debate about the direction of the Democratic Party and by a degree of fluidity arising from Mr. Biden’s travails. In the early states, at least, the former vice president appears to be buckling on one side to the expansive populism of Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders, and on the other to Mr. Buttigieg’s calls for generational change.

[BeyondGeography]

1. Two polls now with Biden in 4th place

Maybe the brain trust over there can get him to spend more time on Mayor Pete rather than swiping at Bernie and Warren.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

5. With Joe fading, his focus on Bernie only benefits Bernie... go Bernie!! Woohoo!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Stuy]

2. How does a Siena know Biden is fading?

Since you can always compare one Pollster to the same Pollster,
How does this phone compared to the last Siena before this one? I don't think they conducted any polls before this one for Iowa.

This could be part of the antibody narrative of the young white male journalist.

[Mike Nelson]

3. It looks like...

... a win for Pete! If he finishes ahead of Warren, Sanders, or Biden... he will be among the front-runners, and national polls will follow.

[abqtommy]

4. From what I know if you don't like one poll then there's another one you will like, so what's

with all the angst? Make it a fair and secure election, that's the bottom line.

[brooklynite]

8. I don't focus on polls...I focus on the trends they reflect over time...

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[beastie boy]

11. Looks like the headline should be "Buttigieg gains as Biden, Saners fade and Warren holds steady"

[Act_of_Reparation]

12. This isn't a "poll"

It's a longitudinal analysis of many polls.

[evertonfc]

6. Iowa

The 6 people in Iowa won't decide this primary but Trump must be salivating over these results.

[Celerity]

7. ''A' rated poll with Pete surging, nice!

[ritapria]

9. Organization and Enthusiasm Will Be the Key to Iowa Win

Buttigieg is the real threat to Joe in Iowa …………….They are both vying for the 35-40 % of Iowa Caucus Goers who are self-described Moderate/Conservatives …..

[Demsrule86]

10. It is a survey by the Times...so anti-Biden that I cancelled my subscription...and even then within

the margin of error. Surveys are not reliable. I would not expect Joe to take Iowa by much or at all...but he will sweep other states. The days when Iowa mattered are long gone. The state doesn't look like our party and has a undemocratic caucus system that doesn't really even indicate the true vote...consider the 2016 results of Nevada...the caucus and later the primary where everyone voted knew it wouldn't count but thousands showed up anyway. The more some attack Biden with this shit, the stronger he gets.

[Skya Rhen]

13. So... If Buttigieg wins Iowa, will AAs in South Carolina "fall in line", as some pundits suggest?

[Gothmog]

14. Folks, let's keep perspective.

Link to tweet