Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumNo Mondale moment: Elizabeth Warren releases her plan to finance 'Medicare for All'
Warren's campaign estimates her plan would keep combined public and private health spending "just under" $52 trillion over the next ten years, in line with projections under existing law, but would require the federal government to absorb over $20 trillion in spending. It seeks to use efficiency savings generated by Medicare for All to cover the uninsured at a similar total cost and add new benefits for dental, vision and long-term care.
Medicare for All is about the same price as our current path and cheaper over time, Warren said in a Medium letter. That means the debate isnt really about whether the United States should pay more or less. Its about who should pay.
Warren places most of the revenue burden on businesses and the wealthy. She plans to carry over almost all existing health funding from employers and state governments, while also levying a variety of new taxes on the rich, corporations and high-earning investors including doubling her signature wealth tax on billionaires.
Warren backs up her revenue and cost estimates with 44 pages of analysis from experts, including former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson, former Obama economic adviser Betsey Stevenson, Moodys chief economist Mark Zandi, and former Obama-appointed Medicare and Medicaid administrator Dr. Donald Berwick.
...With her own answer now firmly in hand, Warren challenged those Democratic candidates who oppose Medicare For All to put forward their own plan to cover everyone, without costing the country anything more in health care spending, adding a final counter: We need plans, not slogans.
While Warrens plan promises not one penny in middle-class tax increases, it does assume a reversal of President Donald Trumps tax cut a move Warren previously had backed that would raise taxes on some middle income families. Other sources of revenue include raising her wealth tax to 6 percent on fortunes over $1 billion, treating capital gains for the top 1 percent as earned income and requiring taxes to be paid annually, imposing $2.9 trillion in new taxes on corporations and foreign earnings and creating a new 0.1 percent tax on financial transactions.
More at https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/elizabeth-warren-releases-her-plan-finance-medicare-all-n1074981
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,533 posts)And then you have to add in the other programs she's proposing and it gets even more ridiculous. And yet she STILL stays with the "no middle class tax increases" line.
Are we trying to GIVE this election away?? A lot of people cant stand trump & that what should be focused on. They cant stand him, but when they see numbers like this, they may very well hold their nose. Again.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,370 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,533 posts)And to add, I've spoken with many people locally and NONE have anywhere near those numbers in premiums. I know I dont. Coverage for two adults is about 4800 a yr.
ALL of the people I've talked to support a Medicare buy in. Most of them are happy with their current coverages. None of these people are "politically active", meaning they'd never post here or anywhere else this early. But they DO listen to someone saying "you're current plan is gone"
But again, good luck beating trumo with these numbers.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,370 posts)That is crowding out investments in infrastructure, education, a new energy strategy you name it.
It's also a fact that the US spends 2X as much on health care than the rest of the western world.
I'm happy for your friends, but the current system is completely out-of-control and unsustainable. If we're not honest about that we're going to continue to move sideways and lay the foundation for something much worse than Trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)....coverage (disclaimer - she worked for a hospital) coverage for BOTH of us, with dental coverage, was $19.50 per week, $1,014 annually.
I don't know where some of these numbers come from.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Fiendish Thingy
(15,596 posts)In premiums, not including deductibles and copays.
Of course, I live in Canada now, so it's a different story- just retired, and my extended benefits coverage (dental, prescriptions, vision, etc) costs about $70/mo.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)nor have a reason to inflate them.
These are the total contribution Employee + Employer. Employees pay only a fraction of the total cost.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
CaptainTruth
(6,589 posts)Apparently these affordable plans I keep hearing about aren't available in my area of FL?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SLClarke
(42 posts)The $4800 might be what your average person pays, however many of my clients pay more than that. For instance one client pays $238 a month, plus their employer pay $238 per month. That comes to $5712 a year, that plus co-pays is way more than $4800.00.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
KPN
(15,642 posts)While you can choose to simply call it a disaster, its a reality and ignoring these costs (which are going to happen with or without MFA) would be an even huger disaster. The national annual nationwide cost for health care in 2017 was $3.5 trillion and is projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.5+ percent and ballon to over $6 trillion annually in just the next 8 years (by 2027).
So ... you can choose to torpedo Warrens proposal right out the chute with a knee jerk reaction and personal anecdotal information from a relatively microscopic scale, or you can choose fact-based reality and provide a different solution for this disaster. The numbers are readily available. Look them up.
By the way, the numbers above dont include the costs that arent incurred by the millions who choose not to get health care today because they cant afford it.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,370 posts)Employees are sheltered from the total cost because of employer contributions. The chart reflects all monies paid into insurance plans, not just what you see on your pay stub.
If that doesnt work for you, ask how the US spends twice as much per person on HC than democracies all over the world without these numbers being accurate, or how we spend 18 percent of gdp on HC when single-payer nations typically spend closer to 10%.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)and the chart doesn't source that claim either.
Lets get an accurate amount for the middle class worker of how much a company is putting into HCI payments.
Not healthcare payments but HCI payments alone so the question about where all the money is going is not relevant here.
We know where it's going and HCI's have endowments that grow and we also have government subsidized HC (not HCI) that includes the VA ... for example of why our HC in the US cost so much
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,596 posts)That's not an honest calculation of out-of-pocket costs.
Lots of bronze plans have low premiums, but super high deductibles and copays.
Even with ACA, we currently have a tiered system; with M4A, it's a single tier, and EVERYONE gets covered.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)and the data behind it.
https://www.kff.org/health-costs/report/2019-employer-health-benefits-survey/
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... that skews the cost.
The average "small or medium firm" is not paying 14,000 into employer cost HCI ... alone.
That's crazy.
It doesn't matter though, even half 20k is too much
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
sofarfrome
(2 posts)Since I recently retired as an HR rep for a F500 company with 40K employees I can tell you how much our family of 4 plan cost. With a $6500 deductible and approximately $450 per month premium the company had to pay an additional $6500. Yes there are variables. But the numbers Warren provided are close enough to paint an accurate picture of what to expect moving forward. Not to mention that the average American family will also pocket an immediate $12K raise in pay.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
elleng
(130,866 posts)Where does the immediate $12K raise in pay come from?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,533 posts)i thought we were saving money
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,370 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,533 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SomewhereInTheMiddle
(285 posts)I put in $700+ per paycheck (2 week cycle). My employer puts in another $300+ per paycheck. This covers my whole family including vision and dental. That's ~$2000 per month or $24000 per year. If you just take my contributions and leave out the employers it is still almost $16,000 per year. And that is just the premium.
This is a high deductible plan (the cheapest my employer offers) so the insurance company doesn't start paying out until I have paid $6000 out of pocket on actual medical bills. So that is a likely $22K+ out of pocket each year. A decent HSA blunts that pain, but it is still there.
I would be happy if my taxes went up $500 a paycheck if i did not have to pay the $700+ per paycheck on insurance.
To me it is about the total out of pocket, not whether the money is going to taxes or insurance or both.
Am I happy with my health care providers? Sure. But I was on medicare for 6 months when unemployed and I was just as happy or happier with that plan.
There are lot of good docs out there. I am willing to change if it saves me significant money without reducing coverage.
Just my experiences as a middle-aged, middle-class voter.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ProfessorPlum
(11,256 posts)And one of the better plans would have cost $1700 per month for my wife and three children.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #3)
Matt_R This message was self-deleted by its author.
Turin_C3PO
(13,971 posts)Most vote on likability and whether they connect with the person. Biden and Warren both do well in this regard so Im not worried that idiots would vote Trump over her.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
elleng
(130,866 posts)as no one really knows what the costs of ANY plans will be at this point, or even what they will look like with administration changes. Remember how long it took for ACA finally to take shape?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,533 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)What changes is who has to pay how much of it.
And it's not $5/trillion a year, it's $50 trillion over ten years (i.e. identical to current estimates if we do nothing). It's not the same thing, because a ten year projection reflects the fact that things will cost more ten years from now than they do today.
In 2018, health care spending was $3.65 trillion, but you can't simply multiply that by ten to get a ten year projection, which is why current ten year projection tops $50 trillion instead of being $36 trillion. Warren's plan targets NO increase compared to current projections, but it shifts who has to pay for it, as it also assures that everyone gets covered, and more fully than they do today.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)Overall costs will not go up
Millions more will be covered
Several million jobs will be lost
Seems like some of these plans were devised by David Copperfield or Harry Houdini.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)Millions more will be covered
Several million jobs will be lost
So...? What is "magical" about any of that?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
sofarfrome
(2 posts)Collectively we already pay $52T / 10 years for health care. Warren's claim is we will spend less over the next 10 years of we institute her plan. There will be no tax increases. Not to mention that the average American family/household will automatically receive an approximate $12K increase in take home pay.I have researched this. It is a solid plan.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MichMan
(11,912 posts)She clearly states that not only will employers be required to maintain their current level of funding, there will also be higher taxes on corporations. Why would people get an extra $12,000 increase in take home pay and where is it coming from?
"Warren places most of the revenue burden on businesses and the wealthy. She plans to carry over almost all existing health funding from employers and state governments, while also levying a variety of new taxes on the rich, corporations and high-earning investors including doubling her signature wealth tax on billionaires."
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
wellst0nev0ter
(7,509 posts)From Warren's plan:
"Right now, Americas total bill for health care is projected to be $52 trillion for the next ten years."
That's the status quo. Warren's plan seeks to cut costs in prescription drugs and basic hospital procedures.
Don't conflate the two.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)healthcare, so can we. As for Warren's plan, congress writes and passes legislation, not presidents, and our Democrats include some of the nation's most involved experts on healthcare policy. Not to worry that they'd take any steps that weren't viable.
We really need people to get their distracted, suckered heads out of their healthcare asses and look around. We have huge problems that come before that.
No Democratic majorities, no national healthcare at all, much less universal.
No majorities, the stripping of individual rights by the religious and nationalist authoritarian right will broaden and speed up. And, no, this isn't just a minority or immigrant problem; white citizens will not be safe. "Lock them up!"
No majorities, no big national efforts to sustainable wellbeing.
Everyone does realize eventually the forests of the eastern half of the U.S. are going to burn, right? It's already started, just not enough to compel attention yet. But as the climate crisis advances, evacuations of hundreds of thousands and even millions, and all they mean,certainly will.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
turbinetree
(24,695 posts)and Warren is correct........................... We need plans, not slogans........................
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)after this plan release, she will not be the nominee...combine the costs with the job losses...we need some sort of universal care...but starting over and ditching the ACA makes no sense. If we try, we lose the ACA and will be voted out long before any MFA plan can happen...we will end up with nothing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)I think there will be jobs lost in the insurance and advertising industries. But I think we will have a big increase in the number of doctors, nurses, home healthcare aides, lab techs and other healthcare professionals and hospital and doctor's office staff to actually provide healthcare to all the people who are going without right now.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SterlingPound
(428 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)...it takes away the criticism that she hasn't shown how it can be paid for (though in the end, this would all be determined by congress which is why I say the details themselves aren't so important)
...from a position of strength on the issue, it allows her to flip the argument on everyone else... saying to everyone with some other plan, "okay, you say your plan is cheaper, but it still costs something, how do YOU pay for YOUR plan... and how do you deal with the fact that it leaves people uncovered or out of pocket for more things?"
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)$1.5T for this, $1.0T for that, $50T for the other, etc. etc.
Has anyone ever thought to add up the costs of all the "plans"?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)one or two signature plans and run on those.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dansolo
(5,376 posts)Most estimate peg the increase of government spending at over $32 trillion, and that is with very generous assumptions. I think Warren is severely underestimating the costs because she can't find enough tax revenues to cover it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
backtoblue
(11,343 posts)Bottom line is...if you werent a Warren supporter before, youre not going to magically change your thinking because of this.
You cant please everyone. This release of estimates at least shows she's serious about her proposal. It also presses everyone else to crunch their own healthcare numbers. (Which can be a great opportunity for all of our great candidates)
She's likely not going to sway opinion of her drastically based on these numbers.
She's changed the "show me the numbers" opposition to "convince me this will work for ME" .
Can she do that?
We'll see.
Let's go Elizabeth!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... come out with something regarding MFA.
I still don't see how ditching ACA vs building on it is a good thing overall, I don't see anyone answering that question directly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
backtoblue
(11,343 posts)It's now up to her to convince voters why this is our best healthcare option. (Including myself)
I honestly don't know how she will do that, nor how she would get it passed through congress if elected.
Your question is a good and important one, which alot of voters share.
She will have to answer for these astronomical numbers and how she thinks it will work.
We'll see if she's able to do that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)over 10 years. Warren -- after looking at it a little closer -- says $52 T.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,368 posts)The affordability of healthcare - and its impact on American families - is something that she has been grappling with since she first began her studies on the effects of bankruptcy.
She has thought about this long and hard. This is not an "election fad" for her.
There are a lot of things that we can continue to quibble about in hypotheticals and "cosmic" law. But they won't make ANY difference at all if we don't win in 2020.
The principal problem, IMO, is for us all to make sure that whoever is our Dem candidate not only wins, but also has sizable Dem majorities in BOTH the House and Senate.
We also have to get rid of the absolutely horrible judicial appointees that Trump and McConnell have foisted upon us.
We must.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)universal coverage.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,368 posts)at all when you say that MFA puts us farther away from the goal of universal coverage,
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,368 posts)election - unless people like you do not vote for her?
I could say the same thing about ANY of our Dem candidates if I wanted to be the voice of gloom and doom.
Right now Warren polls just as well or better against Trump as do our other top-tier candidates.
IMO, that will only get better.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)or is severely wounded by Impeachment. People aren't going to buy her populism and promises, even if her proposals are needed.
In interest of full disclosure, I'm not a Warren fan. I believe she was partly responsible for giving us trump with her unjustified/misinformed criticism of Obama -- and Clinton by association -- right up to 2016 election over global trade, playing right into trump's support.
She also bowed to pressure from Massachusetts's medical device manufacturers over Obama's medical devise tax which was designed to make those who profit from healthcare help pay for the ACA.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,368 posts)your opinion. Thank you.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MrsCoffee
(5,801 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)Link to tweet
?s=20
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,370 posts)https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/iowa-poll-warren-biden.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Midnightwalk
(3,131 posts)The healthcare system in the US is broken. Everyone should be covered and we need to drastically cut costs.
The further reaching a plan is the more it may reduce costs in the future. Only if it is enacted and implemented. That means winning multiple elections.
I dont give credit to Americans for having a lot of sense. Bush and trump both won elections in the last 20 years. Yeah they lost the popular vote and tampering at least with voter rolls but it shouldnt have been close.
We all know what the attacks in the general election. I dont agree with them but our answers have to be convincing to most people or we may lose. Losing what ACA did would be devastating.
This update improves our answer from yes you lose your work insurance and taxes go up but trust us youll come out ahead to yes you lose your work insurance and taxes go up on some, but trust us not for you. Youll come out ahead.
I dont think thats an easy answer to sell. I worry it will make us lose. I wish Warren left room to maneuver but l think shes stuck now.
Ill also point out that changing how the healthcare system works for over 100 million people and taking a trillion dollars a year of costs out seems like an enormous endeavor. The engineer in me would rather do that in more than one step so we dont screw up. I like knowing what l ultimately want and then being able to do it in multiple steps.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
geardaddy
(24,926 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wellst0nev0ter
(7,509 posts)Unfortunately, honesty doesn't take you very far in politics, as you can see right now.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Baked Potato
(7,733 posts)Just superimpose a giant $52 TRILLION graphic over whatever picture they want to use.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,368 posts)Wow!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Baked Potato
(7,733 posts)... please.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,368 posts)much better, IMO, to post something positive a bout YOUR candidate than to snipe at OPs where mine is featured.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wnylib
(21,433 posts)I consider in deciding who to support. But I can see 2 ways her opponents will attack this plan in the primaries and in the general if she is the nominee.
First the wealth tax which has not worked in Europe and was abandoned there. So what happens to her funding plan without it?
Second is the increase in corporate taxes. I am all for corporations paying their fair share which they do not do now. But Republicans (and some Dems?) will say this will hurt jobs by hurting employers.
How will Warren defend those criticisms?
Warren has the personal appeal in reaching out to people that successful politicians have. She is bright (how refreshing these days) and well organized. But as pointed out up thread, her plans and the details can be a liability if excessive. They rely on her getting support for them if she gets to the WH. But the process of passing plans into law means that they get tweaked. Some things get dropped. Others get added. The outcome is different than promised in the campaign.
Plans that rely on too many details interconnected become liabilities when faced with the legislative process of implementing them. I am sure her opposition will press this point. They can be liabilities in the general election and will be strongly attacked by the financial establishment, some of whom are Dems.
I think she is digging a hole for herself. Bernie admits that taxes will go up for some in the middle class but they benefit in the end by no premiums or co pays. He presents a better and more practical way to universal coverage IMO.
I will support whoever our nominee is but I am thinking that Warren's health coverage plan will mean working really really hard on fielding attacks.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
andym
(5,443 posts)Corporations will pay more in taxes, but will no longer pay premiums for employees-- could even be a wash.
The very rich will pay for having the opportunity to make so much money and help all those who essentially worked to helped them become so rich.
Citizens who pay premiums will save all the money-- greater than the biggest tax cut ever Warren stated.
Everyone gets medical care.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wnylib
(21,433 posts)will she condense the details into something that the general public can follow? A lot of people lack interest in details and facts. Sad but true. And there is still the issue of the viability of the wealth tax.
Also, people with good health plans now will object to losing them. Remember the people who lost plans they liked when Obamacare was passed? True that in those cases there were costs to the new plans which Warren says will not happen with hers. But the mandatory change will open up that issue again. This will be exploited by the opposition and she will need to defend her plan with promises that she may not be able to keep if she lacks support in Congress to legislate the plan.
The weakest point, though, IMO, is the wealth tax.
And even Canadians have private insurance options.
I like Warren's willingness to fight. I like her knowledge and experience in economics and her recognition that we need some economic changes. Some of the more moderate candidates do not or will not see that.
I like her energy and broad vision. As a guest on late night TV she shows wit and humor that remind me of JFK. And like RFK, she sees things that others do not see and says," Why not?"
But she is already fighting uphill nearly alone. Any weaknesses in her plans, like the wealth tax, could really hurt her. Not to mention the establishment battle ahead if she does win. Are we up to that?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Raymond O
(17 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)What does that mean? What private health spending?
nb: I'll admit that I didn't read the article, nor do I intend to. The cited portion is preposterous enough.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)Link to tweet
Warren shies away from calling this a tax, and she even claims "we don't need to raise taxes on the middle class by one penny to finance Medicare for All." Instead, she refers to it as an employer Medicare contribution, under which companies "would send payments to the federal government for Medicare."
But there is a commonly accepted term for a plan that requires companies to send payments to the federal government in order to finance government programs. That word is tax. And that is essentially what this isa nearly $9 trillion payroll tax (or, perhaps, a head tax with some small-business carve outs). It is thus hard to see this as anything other than a massive middle-class tax hike.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)Link to tweet
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys Analytics, also voiced skepticism that the wealth tax provision in Warrens plan - a key funding mechanism - will produce predicted levels of revenue because those targeted by the tax will seek to dodge it.....
Zandi said despite signing a highly touted letter last week backing the calculations for Warrens Medicare for All plan, he does not support shifting Americans off the private health insurance they have in favor of a single-payer, government-run regime.
I am not a fan of Medicare for All, said Zandi, who is not affiliated with any Democratic presidential campaign and does not speak for the Warren campaign. We have 160 million people who have private insurance and are pretty happy with what they have. Why change that?"
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden