Morning Joe: Biden doesn't have an Iowa ground game to compete with Warren and Buttigieg

[brooklynite]

You need a unique ground operation to sign up and turn out and keep supporters in place on Caucus night, and Biden doesn't have one in place, while Warren and Buttigieg have invested heavy resources. David Axelrod said the same thing based on their performance at the Liberty and Justice Dinner, and it meshes with what I saw at the Steak Fry.

Quinnipiac (10/30 - 11/5) Biden 15 (4th)
NY Times/Siena (10/25 - 10/30) Biden 17 (4th)
Iowa State University (10/18 - 10/22) Biden 12 (4th)

[dem4decades]

1. Sad that he didn't get troops on the ground there.

[TexasTowelie]

5. I doubt that Biden expected to do well in Iowa so I understand why he wouldn't

want to commit the resources. As long as Biden takes South Carolina he can afford to wait to payday on Super Tuesday, although a top 3 finish in either Nevada or New Hampshire will help the narrative for his campaign. Biden has never been a great fundraiser so he has to be strategic as to where he spends money and Iowa isn't at the top of Biden's list. He's probably smiling as he watches the other campaigns go overboard spending for the early primaries that have few delegates.

Personally, I'm interested in who is going to benefit in Texas since Beto withdrew and it also seems likely Castro will withdraw. I'm leaning towards Biden being the beneficiary. If either Sanders or Warren falls below the 15% threshold to receive delegates then Biden could easily offset any lead that the other candidates have prior to Super Tuesday.

[dem4decades]

11. I know, but he knew New Hampshire was not going to be good to him. I hope he

makes it in good enough shape till SC and wins that. Then he should be fine on Super Tuesday.

I guess at this point I'm leaning towards him. I think he has the best chance to beat Trump.

That's all I give a shit about.

[BeyondGeography]

13. Alternatively, he's proving yet again that he doesn't know how to build an effective campaign

Joe Biden in Danger of Humiliating Loss in Iowa, Top Democrats Warn

...With fewer than 100 days until the Feb. 3 caucuses, Biden is failing to spend the time with small groups of voters and party officials that Iowans expect and his campaign’s outreach has been largely ineffective, according to 11 senior Democrats in the state. That could send Biden to a crippling loss behind Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, who have highly organized campaigns in Iowa, said the Democrats, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign.

... Nevertheless, Biden’s reliance on high-dollar fundraisers has taken away time from campaigning in a state where voters expect to meet candidates face-to-face in the months and weeks before they gather in dozens of homes and community centers to pick their preference for the nominee.

In September, for example, Biden crisscrossed the country appearing at private fundraising events -- capped by 10 in one week -- and spent only three days in Iowa. He still ended up with less money than candidates like Warren, Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders.

Many of the Democrats interviewed pointed to his Iowa state director, Jake Braun, who doesn’t live there full-time and hasn’t worked on a campaign in the Hawkeye State since 2007. The Democrats cite Braun in trying to explain the weakness of the campaign’s outreach to key officials. They also complained that it can be difficult to get in touch with and work with the Biden team...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-29/biden-in-danger-of-humiliating-loss-in-iowa-top-democrats-warn

[TexasTowelie]

16. It's a matter of perspective.

[TexasTowelie]

18. Reading the excerpt more closely,

I am amused that it criticizes Biden for not making enough appearances with small groups, but when Beto was campaigning he was criticized for making nearly all of his appearance with small groups.

[Hortensis]

22. I'm amused that Biden's lack of big fundraising is

being criticized in him by some who trumpet it as highest principle in whoever they're partisan for.

We SO need taxpayer funded 3-month campaigns. Eternal campaigns encourage the bad.

[TexasTowelie]

24. It would appear to be a better option to me.

The eternal campaigns allow for the RFing to progress from one target to the next and dwindle the field before anybody gets to vote.
That equates to a big FU to those of us who are more than willing to consider voting for younger candidates.

[Hortensis]

28. Gutter discourse always expands to fill the time.

[beastie boy]

33. And the proof of his ineffectiveness to build an effective campaign is... him topping every poll

except Iowa?

Damn, that's terrible!.. But something tells me the Primaries will not stop in Iowa. So Biden still has 49 more opportunities to prove he doesn't know how to build an effective campaign. So save that headline for later use.

[brooklynite]

46. You ignore Iowa at your risk...

"XXX wins big in Iowa" become a media narrative and generates momentum for New Hampshire which generates momentum for future States. Recall that Giuliani attempted to skip the first four States and strike it big in Florida.

[beastie boy]

48. Iowa is critical.

But I don't see XXX winning big in Iowa. The top four contenders are within margin of error. While the winner will score a big brownie point, it will not be a significant victory and will not likely make or break any of the campaigns.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

15. Yes, Joe has lots of experience with that, so you'd think Iowa would be easy.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[emulatorloo]

37. I don't thing DU has ever grasped that Iowa Dem Caucus goers are generally liberals/progressives

[tblue37]

53. I think he is deliberately ceding Iowa & New Hampshire and focusing on South Carolina & beyond. nt

[dem4decades]

59. I agree with you but not with his plan. Unless he can make a huge statement in SC.

[tblue37]

60. Black voters in SC VOTE, and they prefer Biden. nt

[dem4decades]

61. Not just in SC. If he can get to Super Tuesday intact iit may play out for him.

[Recursion]

2. He said a while ago he's staking it on a big push in SC

Which is what people who drop out of the primaries early often say, including Biden 12 and 32 years ago.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

14. Zero chance Joe's strategy works... guess we'll see, but Bernie & Elizabeth, together, can't lose.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[TexasTowelie]

19. Why are you trying to aggregate their vote totals again?

They are not running a team campaign.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

30. Bernie fans will be surprised that a number of HRC supporters are for Warren now

And many will never migrate to Bernie after his antics in 2016. My cousin is one of those - 1st Choice is Warren, 2nd Choice is Kamala.

Moreover adding up totals as an aggregate is dumb. You don't see Biden fans assuming Beto's fans are with him now.

[still_one]

31. Because they know Sanders has no chance to be the nominee, and it is a weak attempt to try to attach

to someone who has

No way if Warren is the nominee will she chooses Sanders as her VP

[Indykatie]

42. I Think a Ticket with Both Warren and Sanders will Lose in a Landslide n/t

[still_one]

45. In my view without a doubt that would be the case for Sanders. Warren I believe will move more to

the center if she got that far

Regardless, Super Tuesday I believe will pretty much seal the deal who our nominee will be I believe

[Demsrule86]

38. No, in fact if both stay in theorectically it will be very unlikely that either wins the nomination

assuming they really do have the same sort of supporters who would switch to the other one should one decide to drop out. I am not sure that is true...but individuals win delegates not those who hold similar ideas and some see as a team which they are not. And the idea I suppose is the supers would have to give one of them the nomination if their combined total exceeded an individual's total...but that assumes their voters would vote for the other one and there is no way to know that so...one of them better get out while there is still time IMHO.

[TexasTowelie]

49. I understand completely. nt

[JCMach1]

65. JEBtm's strategy in the last cycle

And it worked soooo well

[treestar]

3. that would make it funny if he wins

and he's tied even without all that.

[crazytown]

4. Campaign Offices

[TexasTowelie]

7. Thanks for the diagram.

It is a bit annoying how the shaped the dot patterns since it makes it more difficult to make visual comparisons. Look how many ways the states with two offices have the dots rotated as an example.

for the graphic designer.

[crazytown]

9. yw. It's a NYT screen shot

Don't have the link anymore.

[crazytown]

6. Campaign Offices - Iowa

[TexasTowelie]

8. Better than the previous graphic

since it shows where the offices are distributed around the state.

[crazytown]

10. We would need an Iowan to tell us

what the significance of some of the placements are.

[TexasTowelie]

12. Agreed.

I would be able to provide some insight if it were a map of Texas, but I lack the knowledge to analyze the Iowa map. Other than considering to go to Grinnell when I was in high school, I know nothing of the state.

[crazytown]

17. I've never been to Texas.

Always meant to. Thought I'd start in Galveston, then Houston.

[TexasTowelie]

20. I would avoid both.

My time in Austin and Dallas were more enjoyable. I also don't like low flat marshlands or the beach that much.

[crazytown]

21. It is my sense of the macabre,

the town that ignored the warnings, then the victor. Austin, oh yeah. Dallas - I'm not sure - the grassy knoll and all that stuff.

[TexasTowelie]

23. I walked through the Grassy Knoll area and by the bookstore many times.

I'm mindful of history and at times have stopped for moments of reflection. However, there are other nice things about the Dallas area that compensate for the JFK assassination. I also feel the social options in Dallas are better than in Houston. It seems like every time I went to Houston I would end up in either a biker bar or a blues bar--I don't really fit in either situation.

[highplainsdem]

27. Consider Padre Island, Austin, San Antonio...

[crazytown]

29. Thanks highplainsdem

[emulatorloo]

39. Fort Worth is fun too. Lots of good museums and things to do.

[highplainsdem]

40. Yep. Here's a list of the 5 best places to visit in Texas, with Austin, San Antonio, D-FW, Houston &

Padre Island, and the reasons why they're on the list:

https://travel.usnews.com/rankings/best-places-to-visit-in-texas/

[mbusby]

54. Living in Houston and surroundings...

...for 65 years. Galveston is good for a get-a-way. About 50 miles south of Houston.

[BlueWI]

32. The Eastern half of Iowa is more flippable.

The cities of Des Moines (central), Iowa City, Waterloo/Cedar Falls, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport (Eastern) all lean blue. The cities on the Eastern edge of the Mississippi River (Clinton, Dubuque, and Burlington) are purple, so whoever wins voters there will be prepped up for battleground states. Other than Council Bluffs and maybe Sioux City, Western Iowa along the Missouri is heavily red, Steve King territory.

[brooklynite]

47. One dot everyone has at the highway intersection is Des Moines (major population/media center)

The one slightly north of Des Moines is Ames, home of Iowa State University.

The one further north is Mason City

The one at the east end of the State, parallel to Des Moines is Davenport.

The one at the west end of the State is Loveland, tapping into the Omaha media market

The one north of Davenport is Dubuque

The three in the central-east of the State are the I-380 corridor of Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and Waterloo

The one north of Loveland is Sioux City

The two southeast of Des Moines are Ottumwa and Keokuk

[TexasTowelie]

51. Thanks for the details.

I have the newspapers in nearly all of those cities included in my database of media sites that I review as I post threads in the state groups. The only exceptions are Loveland, Ottumwa, and Keokuk.

[SharonClark]

55. Council Bluffs, not Loveland

Muscatine, not Keokuk.

Isn't Loveland in Texas?

[brooklynite]

62. Loveland, IA 51555, USA

[highplainsdem]

25. Looks like Buttigieg might have more offices than he needs in the Des Moines area, but I suppose

that could explain his doing so well in the corn-kernel poll at the state fair.

FWIW, I still think Biden's resume and electability and Trump's obvious fear of him will outweigh other considerations for most caucus goers when they finally vote.

And yeah, I know a lot of Iowa caucus goers seem to think they're being snubbed if the candidates aren't there more than they're anywhere else.

But it's a small state and very unrepresentative of the electorate, and it's silly to give Iowa voters a disproportionate say in who wins the primary.

Even though many Warren and Buttigieg fans in the media seem to love the idea of Biden not winning in Iowa.

I really don't expect Biden to lose there. I think most Iowa voters are more realistic than some of the activists looking for dream or revolutionary candidates.

[democratisphere]

26. Iowa caucuses are a rigged sham. States with real conventional style voting primaries

are the only primaries that are valid.

[still_one]

34. What I feel is amusing is they are using a republican to analyze how a Democratic candidate is doing

Everything you about the caucus is right on. It discriminates against those with mobility issues, those who cannot be there in person, and makes a sham out of a secret ballot

That said, in spite of the laughable hype the media always gives to Iowa, I suspect there will be no clear winner from it

Super Tuesday will be the one, and I really hope if it becomes obvious after Super Tuesday if it becomes clear that some of the second tier candidates cannot mathematically secure the nomination, they get the message, and graciously step aside

[samnsara]

35. id still vote for him even if he had no ground game..

[Demsrule86]

36. That is not true...I personally can attest to that....MJ is wrong.

[Peacetrain]

57. +1000

[Indykatie]

41. I Think Biden is Smart Not to Invest Big Time in Iowa

Both IA and NH are too resource intensive. They also may not hold the same level of influence on the nomination process they have had in past cycles. More Dems are questioning the fairness of starting the Dem nomination process in states that look nothing like the Dem party. I think the SC primary 3 weeks after the IA caucus will be a reality check for the candidates despite their showing in IA and NH. This is especially true for Buttigieg.

[Gothmog]

50. How the firefighters union looks to use their decades of Iowa Caucus experience to put @JoeBiden o

Link to tweet

[emmaverybo]

52. Firefighters Draw On Caucus Experience To Boost Biden:

Harold Schaitberger is the international president of a 320,000-person union and leads the ninth-largest federal union PAC in the United States, but he has one thing on his mind come caucus night: where to put the Joe Biden posters so voters can easily see them as they walk in.

An old caucus pro himself, Schaitberger knows all the little details that make for a successful caucus campaign, and one thing he’ll have precinct captains tasked with is securing “the ideal space at the caucus locations” for Biden’s backers.

“You go in and go to the registration table and walk through the door and into the auditorium and we understand, you know — where’s the line of sight? And how do you secure a good location?” Schaitberger told Starting Line in an interview before last Friday’s Liberty and Justice Dinner.

This is far from Schaitberger’s first rodeo in Iowa. He’s often spent the last month in the state before past caucuses helping out the firefighter’s endorsed candidate, including John Kerry in 2003/2004. You’ll see him in the state this January, likely surrounded by yellow-clad firefighters, to knock doors for Biden and talk with fellow union members.

—————————————————

Discusses why and how firefighters will boost Biden—

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/11/06/firefighters-draw-on-caucus-experience-to-boost-biden/

[Cha]

58. Mmmm! FIREFIGHTERS FOR BIDEN!!

Link to tweet

[Srkdqltr]

56. Morning Joe pulled this same shit on HRC back in the day. Don't fall for this.

[brooklynite]

66. So David Axelrod is part of an anti-Biden cabal?

[boomer_wv]

63. Why

are we acting like Iowa is next week? We have three months will caucus night.

2004 was the last time we had a large primary field. In November of 2003, polls showed:

Howard Dean: 29
Dick Gephart: 21
John Kerry: 15
John Edwards: 8
...

Of course Kerry went on to charge late and win Iowa.

So, let's not pretend that 3 months of campaigning can't and wont' change the landscape a lot.

[Gothmog]

64. JoeBiden's campaign announces 10 endorsements from elected officials across Iowa, including 6 mayors

Link to tweet